Who is the boss in the Far East: China or Russia? Chinese expansion reached central Russia

China has long claimed a much larger role than the one it now plays in world politics and economics. Although now the Chinese economy is one of the most dynamic and rapidly developing, China accounts for about 15% of world GDP (this is the third place after the European Union and the United States), Beijing is striving to strengthen the country's position even more. One way to strengthen China's position is to implement the One Belt, One Road concept, or simply the New Silk Road concept.

Xi Jinping announced the One Belt, One Road concept back in 2013. It is already clear that this concept has become the basis guiding China's foreign policy for the coming decades. By 2049, the centenary of the People's Republic of China, the country should firmly consolidate its position as a world leader. This goal is set by the leadership of the CCP, and, apparently, it can really be achieved. As part of achieving this goal, China is building relations with the states of Eurasia, based on the concept of "One Belt - One Road". First of all, China is interested in developing relations with the countries of Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Eastern Europe.

In fact, the idea of ​​uniting economically less developed states around China arose long ago, during the reign of Mao Zedong. Chairman Mao divided the then world into the "first world" (the capitalist countries of Europe, the USA), the "second world" (the socialist camp) and the "third world" - developing countries. China, according to Mao's concept, was to lead the movement of the "third world" countries opposing the US, Europe and the Soviet Union. Now the Soviet Union no longer exists, and Russia is not a competitor to China. The main task of Beijing is to “overtake” the United States, and in order to achieve this task, the PRC seeks to establish relations with as many states of the world as possible. Eurasian countries are of interest to China, primarily for reasons of providing economic corridors to Europe. In the future, it is with Europe that China will develop relations, competing with the United States for the European market. But this will require economic corridors through which Chinese goods will be sent to the EU countries. For the construction of such corridors, it is planned to return to the concept of the silk road - from China through Central Asia and the Caucasus - to Eastern Europe and further - to Western Europe.

The very idea of ​​the New Silk Road is the desire to reconstruct the Great Silk Road, which existed from the 2nd century BC. BC e. The most important trade route of antiquity and the Middle Ages, the Great Silk Road passed through many countries of Asia and Eastern Europe. However, at that time the Silk Road was only a trade transit route from China to Europe, and the New Silk Road is seen as a tool to strengthen China's influence on other states. With the help of the New Silk Road, Beijing aims to modernize the entire economic and trade system of Eurasia. Naturally, this transformation will primarily affect the countries of Central Asia - Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. Chinese diplomats and businessmen are already actively working here, and ties between Beijing and the former Soviet republics of Central Asia are growing stronger.

China has begun organizing a worldwide system of transport corridors, which, according to the Chinese, should connect China with the whole world - the countries of Central Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and Oceania. As part of the New Silk Road, it is planned to build roads and railways, open sea and air routes, lay pipelines and power lines. China plans to draw 4.4 billion people into its orbit of influence through the New Silk Road - more than half of the current population of the Earth.

China refers to the development of the overland directions of the New Silk Road: 1) the construction of railway lines to Georgia, Azerbaijan, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nepal, India, Myanmar, Thailand and Malaysia. The idea of ​​building a powerful railway track includes the creation of a tunnel under the Bosporus, the organization of ferry crossings across the Caspian Sea. The northern corridor to Europe will go through the territory of Kazakhstan and Russia, the central corridor - through Central Asia and the Caucasus - Azerbaijan and Georgia, and the southern corridor has a different direction - through Indochina and Indonesia to the Indian Ocean and further - to the countries of the African continent, to which China has already extended its political and economic influence. These paths should connect all of Asia, but the main task remains to ensure uninterrupted communication between China and other countries of the continent.

How the New Silk Road project affects world politics is best evidenced by the current situation in the Middle East. Initially, China planned to organize an economic corridor through Iran and further through Iraq and Syria to the Mediterranean Sea. That is, Syria was considered as a very important link in the Silk Road system. However, this path bypassed Turkey, an important player in the Middle East policy. Ankara has long had plans for Turkey's role in the economic exchange between China and Europe, but building an economic corridor through Syria would leave Turkey on the periphery of the New Silk Road. China was not interested in organizing communication through Turkey also because Turkey has always played a key role in supporting the Uyghur separatists operating in Western China (the historical region of East Turkestan, now the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of the PRC). In addition, the construction of a corridor through Syria seemed to the Chinese leadership to be more profitable from an economic point of view.

In order to prevent the plans to organize the Syrian corridor from being realized, it was necessary to shake up the political situation in Syria to such a state that any transit through the territory of this country was not possible. The war in Syria has become an excellent way to block the One Belt - One Road project in the Mediterranean direction. Since the "revolutions" in the countries of North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula - the so-called. "Arab Spring" - almost seven years have passed, but the situation in Syria is not stabilizing. The war has become protracted, and the actions of armed groups make impossible any attempts to build land routes through this country. It can be said that China's opponents have achieved their goal - it is now impossible to build a corridor through Syria.

What path is left for China? The Syrian corridor is being replaced by a corridor from Central Asia (Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan) through the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan and further to Georgia, to Batumi, and then to the Black and Mediterranean Seas. China is showing great interest in developing economic relations with Georgia and Azerbaijan, which testifies to Beijing's far-reaching plans for these Transcaucasian republics. In turn, both Azerbaijan and Georgia are also interested in passing the Chinese corridor through their territories, since this will allow them to significantly improve their economic situation, including through the construction of infrastructure and attraction of investments.

At the beginning of 2018, an agreement between Tbilisi and Beijing on free trade comes into force. A similar agreement is in force in Georgia and with the European Union. At the same time, Tbilisi, despite long-standing contradictions in relations with Moscow, seeks to receive dividends from cooperation with the Eurasian Economic Union, in partnership with which the One Belt - One Road project is involved.

A number of Eastern European countries are also interested in developing relations with China. Gradually, Eastern European politicians begin to understand that in the European Union they will in any case be destined for a secondary place. The positions of the countries of Eastern Europe are not taken into account by European "heavyweights" when discussing even the most important issues, for example, the placement of migrants. In fact, the countries of Eastern Europe and the Balkan Peninsula are considered by the European Union as resource territories from which one can draw cheap labor. In addition, the entry of these countries into the European Union and NATO has always been seen as a prevention of the spread of Russian influence on them. USA and Western Europe in 1989-1990 not in order to win a serious victory over the USSR, ousting Moscow from Eastern Europe, then to surrender their positions.

Hungary plays a very active role in the development of relations between China and the countries of Eastern and Central Europe. Budapest is a modern "dissident" of the European Union. We know that on a number of fundamental issues Hungary takes a different position from the European Union. This also applies to migration policy, and attitudes towards same-sex marriage, and sanctions against Russia. Not surprisingly, Budapest is seeking to develop an increasingly active relationship with China. The 16+1 summit was recently held in Budapest, the sixth in a row. Representatives of China traditionally took part in the summit. What is "16 + 1" - these are sixteen states of Eastern and Central Europe, the Balkan Peninsula - Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Macedonia, Croatia, Slovenia, Montenegro, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary, Czech Republic, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. Plus one is plus China. Many of the summit participants are members of the European Union and NATO, but they do not hide their desire to cooperate with China. For Beijing, this is yet another diplomatic victory, and for Brussels, a cause for concern.

The growing influence of China on the countries of Eastern and Central Europe cannot but disturb the leadership of the European Union. During the Cold War, China had virtually no influence on the countries of Eastern Europe that were under Soviet patronage. For some time, Beijing cooperated only with Albania, Romania and Yugoslavia. In the 1990s, Eastern Europe came under the political and economic influence of the United States and the European Union. However, now the situation is changing dramatically.

Beijing is attracting the countries of Eastern Europe with promises of multibillion-dollar investments in the development of national economies. First of all, we are talking about investments in the development of transport infrastructure, modernization of the energy sector. Investment is not only money and new opportunities, it is also new jobs, and the problem of unemployment in most countries of Eastern Europe and the Balkans is very acute. Therefore, regional leaders treat the Chinese project very favorably.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban even noted that China can provide the countries of Eastern and Central Europe with such opportunities that cannot be realized relying only on EU resources. And indeed it is. The key players of the European Union - France, Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands - are no longer able to finance the solution of numerous problems of the countries of Eastern Europe, the Balkan Peninsula. Moreover, they are not seriously worried about solving these problems, which was clearly demonstrated by the story of the placement of migrants from the countries of the Middle East and North Africa, which caused serious contradictions between the leadership of the European Union and the countries of Eastern Europe. China is already investing billions of dollars in Eastern European countries and the amount of investment will only grow.

Naturally, Brussels is not very happy with this behavior of the Eastern European states. But what can be done? The world is changing, and China plays a very important role in these changes. More and more countries are beginning to understand that focusing on China in the current global political and economic situation is much more profitable than remaining eternal satellites of the United States and the European Union. The leaders of the European Union are even more frightened by the fact that Western European (here we are talking about the political and cultural concept of "Western Europe") countries are increasingly interested in developing relations with China. For example, Austria is in favor of the Chinese "New Silk Road" necessarily passing through its territory, knowing full well all the benefits and positive consequences of this step.

We see that China is methodically and successfully moving towards achieving its goal - to spread its economic and then political influence to the countries of Asia, Europe and Africa. The New Silk Road is just one way to expand this influence. But what can the United States do to prevent the assertion of Chinese "dominance"?

Chinese expansion or new Horde

Effective control exercised for a long time over a strategic area outside China's geographic boundaries will eventually lead to the transfer of its geographic boundaries.

The very first, most important, and most important, in terms of consequences, decision that a statesman and commander must make is to determine the type of war into which he is immersed ...

Carl von Clausewitz. "About war"

The geopolitical concept of Chinese expansion is aimed at transfer of strategic borders outside the territory of China.

As the balance of power between the US and China shifts radically in favor of Beijing, the Chinese are trying to expand the borders to those areas that China considers an integral part of its territory. (Brendan O "Reilly. US, China set for a year of surprises, Jan 5, 2013).

The transfer of strategic borders beyond the territory of a state claiming world domination can be carried out by various means: political, economic, demographic, spiritual and military.

Hence the Chinese expansion can be political, economic, demographic, spiritual and military.

Concerning political expansion, here China directs its efforts to bind other countries to itself through the creation of political alliances, and then with the help of economic levers (or rather, money) to subjugate them to its power.

In January 2012, the Chinese newspaper People's Daily published an article titled "China and Russia Should Establish a Eurasian Alliance." In particular, it outlines the main goal of this initiative: “Simultaneously with the attack on the sea, China needs to gradually conquer the western part of Eurasia).”

This is fully consistent with one of the principles of the Chinese strategy - "strangle the enemy in the arms of friendship."

Economic expansion focused on formation of the economic system of the Universal Empire.

China has become the world's second largest economy after the United States, and this potential creates every opportunity for vigorously pursuing a policy of economic expansion in all directions.

The goal of this course is to move the economic frontiers beyond China and seizing economic leadership in the world.

China forms the geopolitical and economic space of its Global Empire.

How is it done?

China creates free trade zones with more than 20 countries (in fact, these are structures parallel to the WTO). In addition, it lends on a bilateral basis on a scale larger than (and clearly in competition with) the IMF. It binds any assistance to the countries of Southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America with strict requirements for

buying exclusively Chinese goods (forming dependence on China). All these are elements of "soft" power used by China for global control of its living space. (E. N. Grachikov. China's view of the modern world order and multipolarity, 22.08.2012).

One of the most important tasks on the way to seizing economic leadership in the world is seizing economic leadership in the region of Central Asia. This task is solved by placing the republics of Central Asia under your control, turning them into your vassals and tributaries, tearing them away from Russia and ousting Russia as a competitor.

The Golden Horde, having captured a number of Russian principalities, turned the princes into tributary vassals.

China is pursuing a policy aimed at "the disintegration of the post-Soviet space centered in Moscow and the consolidation of the Central Asian countries around another center - Beijing."

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) plays an important role in realizing this goal.

According to experts, there are serious differences of interests between Russia and China in the SCO. China seeks to use the SCO to provide a decisive influence on the economic situation in the Asia-Pacific region (ATP). Preventing the expansion of Russia's influence in the Asia-Pacific region is the basis of China's policy in the SCO.

According to analysts, Beijing, making contact with Russia, first of all seeks to play the "Russian card" for its own purposes. “China views Russia as its adversary, a temporary alliance with which will lull its vigilance and further subdue it.”

Sinologist A. Devyatov says: “In the Chinese mind, an ally is not someone who needs to be saved, sometimes sacrificing himself (like the Red Army in World War II), but someone who can be sacrificed in a war with the enemy.”

History teaches us how China can deal with Russia.

On October 15, 1957, a Soviet-Chinese agreement was signed, which provided for the Soviet Union to assist China in the production of nuclear weapons, including by providing China with samples of an atomic bomb and technical documentation for its manufacture. It was considered quite obvious that in a future war, Soviet and Chinese soldiers would fight shoulder to shoulder. As a token of "gratitude" for this allied step of the Soviet leadership, China subsequently openly considered the USSR as its enemy for many decades.

In December 1993, in the editorial “Two Great Deeds

in the life of Mao Zedong” The Renmin Ribao wrote in connection with the centenary of his birth: “Some comrades did not approve of deviations from the Soviet camp. But now, after the amazing changes that took place in Eastern Europe and in the USSR itself in 1989-1991, no one here, perhaps, will doubt the correctness of the course taken then by Mao Zedong.

The main technologies of Chinese economic expansion are:

4 creation of a common infrastructure with the countries of Central Asia, which binds them to China, turning them into one state with a leading center in Beijing;

4 provision of related loans under conditions that meet the interests of building the Middle Empire;

4 buying land around the world;

4 creation of Chinese industrial and agricultural zones in different countries.

Creation of a common infrastructure with the countries of Central Asia aims to turn Central Asia into a common territory with China. China is already considering this region as a single territory, where the borders of nation-states no longer matter.

China seeks to cover the countries of Central Asia as much as possible with its transport infrastructure.

China is implementing

Central Asian countries have their own 1435 mm railway gauge standard, also adopted in Europe, Turkey and Iran. But on the territory of the former USSR, a standard gauge of 1520 mm was adopted. The transition of several CIS countries to a different standard of railway gauge means a reorientation of commodity flows to new transport corridors, bypassing Russia.

Rothschilds(NM Rothschild & Sons) are the chief investment advisor to a Chinese company PetroChina, the largest oil company in Asia, and Chinese railway companyChina's Mass Transit Railway Corporation.

The US and China are implementing projects to create a railway network in Afghanistan and Central Asia.

It is about “creating a new railway corridor for the states of Central Asia, which will be free from the influence of Russia and will provide them with such access to world markets that has never been before.” In essence, the construction of the railway network in Afghanistan aims to tear off Central Asia from Russia in the field of transport communications(KabulovE. Washington's Rail War in Afghanistan and Central Asia, http://www.fondsk.ru (16.02.2013).

And this anti-Russian goal turns out to be common for the US and China. China intends to build a railway through Kyrgyzstan to Uzbekistan to transport goods to the Middle East. Again around Russia.

Security expert Toktogul Kakchekeyev from Bishkek argues that China and the US have already found "common ground" on the construction of a railway through Kyrgyzstan.“This route is important for China because the Chinese get access to the markets of Europe and Asia, bypassing the Trans-Siberian Railway, and this is also beneficial for the United States. In addition, pipeline routes will run in parallel, while Pakistan, India and, most importantly, are interested in Iranian and Turkmen hydrocarbons. China. If we talk about the United States, then there is no need to talk about any goods of the Central Asian republics in large volumes... For the Americans, the railway network of Afghanistan is a political tool for isolating Central Asia from Russia...”

Kyrgyzstan believes that China will not be limited only to the construction of a piece of iron. Indeed, as payment for the project, which is estimated at about $ 2 billion, Beijing asks to give away deposits of copper and other metals(KabulovE. Washington's Rail War in Afghanistan and Central Asia. http://www.fondsk.ru (16.02.2013).

“With the seeming economic benefits of such a project for the Central Asian republics, they, like Russia, will get new problems,” says Mikhail Chernov, special representative of the Association for Border Cooperation in Central Asia and the Caucasus. - The new structure will reformat the entire region. Communications will provide a sharp increase in the flow of drugs, as well as new channels for the distribution of radical Islamic Salafi movements... Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan... do not have immunity against these threats. In Soviet times, the borders were closed, road and rail communication was practically non-existent. Now the situation is objectively changing.”

Discussions about how the geopolitical landscape of Eurasia will change after the creation of a railway network in Afghanistan, which will unite all the roads of Central and South Asia, China and the Middle East, will still continue, but the project itself has already been launched. Sooner or later, experts say, everything will be built(Kabulov E. Washington's Rail War in Afghanistan and Central Asia, http://www.fondsk.ru (16.02.2013).

In January 2012, Chinese news agencies circulated an article by Dr. Li Guanqun "Current Problems in Sino-Russian Relations and Measures to Be Taken by China." The author, recognizing the desire of our country to return the status of a great power, notes that China has exactly the same goal, which in the long term gives rise to "some kind of confrontation."

Li Guanqun designated Central Asia as a region of conflict of interest. This is followed by an unequivocal formulation: “... Russia is not able to independently resolve the situation in the CIS, especially to solve problems in the economy, security and combating terrorism in Central Asia. China ... is joining the business in Central Asia and the CIS in order to get the oil and gas resources of Central Asia and a corridor to the outside world.

China is purposefully ousting Russia from Central Asia.

According to WikiLeaks, the former Chinese ambassador to Kazakhstan, Cheng Guoping, during a meeting with the American ambassador on January 22, 2010, said: "China should work here (in Central Asia), because the growth of Chinese influence will destroy the Russian monopoly in the region." The American ambassador wrote about this in a diplomatic dispatch. Speaking about China's role in Central Asia, Cheng Guoping said that "new oil and gas pipelines break Russia's monopoly on energy exports and reduce dependence on Russia."

The cooperation agreements that China enters into with the countries of the post-Soviet space, "as a rule, are directed against Russia, to the detriment of Russia, bypassing Russia and posing a threat to its national interests."

In general, among the areas in which the interests of Russia and China in Central Asia in the near future may come into conflict, include:

4 exerting political influence on the leaders of the states of Central Asia, as well as the formation of groups oriented towards Russia or China;

4 influence in the field of culture and education (today the influence of Russian culture in the post-Soviet space is declining, it is being replaced by Western and Chinese mass culture) (Frolova I. Substitution reaction. 04.12.2012).

One of the most important technologies of economic expansion

China is provision of related, concessional loans.

With their help, the countries of Central Asia are being integrated into the project of the Universal Empire.

In the context of the financial crisis, these countries take loans, falling into enslaving financial dependence on China. At the same time, he provides the so-called tied loans, that is, he gives money for the goals and projects he has set that serve China's strategic interests.

“Bound loans, issued at low interest and for a long period (this is the special benefit of debt slavery), allow China to penetrate into all sectors of the economy of the countries of Central Asia and gradually seize the reins of their government.”

Tajikistan can serve as an example. At the end of 2010, its external debt reached $1.7 billion, of which $655 million was in China. On April 1 last year, the country's external debt was already more than 2.1 billion, of which China accounted for 878 million. At the moment, Tajikistan is the recipient of 2/3 of all funds invested by China in the Central Asian region. There is no answer yet to the question of how Dushanbe will pay Beijing, but it is possible that namely the Tajik territories. China can claim some areas of the Pamirs, which are overflowing with minerals: uranium, gold, bauxite, asbestos, rock crystal and much more ( bir://1ep1a . gi/agisles/2013/05/14/rat "1G/).

At the end of 2012 News Agency YaevShM publishes an article under the heading “Hungers got spoons! China promises to issue up to $10 billion in loans to the SCO countries.” It says the following. Jiang Yaoping, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China, said at the SCO Ministerial Meeting: "China is ready to provide $10 billion in loans to the countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization." According to him, China has already provided loans to the SCO countries totaling $3 billion in the crisis year of 2009, and the Chinese government is ready to continue to provide financial support in the implementation of joint projects in the region. Jiang Yaoping also said that the volume of China's trade with the SCO countries, following the results of 9 months of 2012, grew by 9.6% and reached $90 billion.

In addition to providing tied loans, another important direction of China's economic expansion policy is buying land.

At the end of 2009, there was a report in the press that “Beijing is creating a gigantic state fund, into which $1 billion will be pumped to begin with. Officially announced that all funds are intended for "investment in agricultural production ... in the territory of the CIS countries" (Ushakov. Yellow black soil).

“For Russia, such an experiment can be extremely dangerous,” Mikaelyan believes. - China is our neighbor, and the regions of Siberia and the Far East are extremely sparsely populated. In this regard, the transfer of part of the territories of these regions to representatives of China may be fraught with a lot of problems, especially in the long term. Suffice it to recall the story of Kosovo - an absolutely similar situation. Albanians were allowed there, which eventually led to the actual separation of this part of Serbia "

“The issue of selling or leasing land fits into the framework of a market economy, but geopolitical interests should also be present in this case,” believes Igor Nikolaev, director of the strategic analysis department at FBK. In addition, it is necessary to take into account the opinion of the population of the country that leases or sells its territory, the expert believes. “If we are talking about leasing land in Russia, I can confidently say, without any sociological surveys, that most of the population will be against such a presence,” Nikolaev emphasized. (Egorov M., Kulikov S. China went to buy land around the world. NG, 12.05.2008).

In 2011, Tajikistan formalized the transfer to China of more than 1,000 sq. m. km of its territory. China claims another 27,000 sq. km of the republic.

China is buying up vast areas of land abroad.

In the Congo alone, China owns about 3 million hectares of land. In Zambia, 2 million hectares were purchased. Nearly 1 million hectares purchased in Mozambique and Tanzania ( http://www.agroxxi . ru/stati/zemelnyi-peredel-uroki-afriki. html).

Activity in the sphere of buying up African lands is equated with a new colonization. What are the consequences for the population of the country whose territory is being bought by foreigners?

This is a possible resettlement of residents living there. So, in Ethiopia, where Indian companies operate, about 300,000 local people were resettled, and only 20,000 of them were able to get a job in new farms, and 280,000 were actually left without a livelihood, since their farms were demolished and no compensation no one received.

A similar situation is observed in other African countries. The UN considers the current situation as the biggest humanitarian catastrophe ( http://www.agroxxi.ru/stati/zemelnyi- peredel-uroki-afriki . html).

The economic presence is followed by the military presence of China. China has introduced its private military companies (PMCs) to Africa. They protect, for example, the interests of Chinese business in Angola, where about 260,000 Chinese work. Chinese PMCs are being used to guard China's expanding influence in South America. That is, PMCs always follow capital and labor.

Thus, China is laying the groundwork for establishing its military bases around the world.

Of course, the creation of PMCs and the appeal to their services is a suicidal course for the state. But the rulers understand its detrimental effect on statehood only after the inevitable catastrophe.

What are the risks for Russia associated with China's policy of buying land?

It is known that the sale of land to foreign companies in the Russian Federation is prohibited. However, it is not difficult to solve this problem. An example of this is the Italian-Swedish company Black Earth Farming, which, through its subsidiary, has already acquired about 300,000 hectares in the Chernozem region. China is now also showing great interest in Russian lands ( http://www . agroxxi.ru/stati/zemelnyi-peredel-uroki-afriki.html).

An important technology of economic expansion is creation of Chinese industrial and agricultural zones in different countries, primarily in the CIS countries.

One of these countries is Belarus.

Lukashenka's Decree No. 253 of June 5, 2012 created the Chinese-Belarusian Industrial Park (KBIP), with an area of ​​8,048 hectares. China has achieved the right to private ownership of land. An important body of the KBIP will be a joint Chinese-Belarusian company for the development of the Park. The share of Belarus in it will be 40%, China - 60%. It is planned to attract up to 600,000 Chinese workers and specialists to the Chinese-Belarusian Industrial Park.

According to the Belarusian government, the size of the credit line opened by China for the implementation of investment projects in Belarus is $16 billion. In the vast majority, these are tied loans issued under the condition of acquiring Chinese equipment, technologies, and the use of Chinese labor force with the allocated money.

According to Belarusian experts, tied loans help the Chinese economy, and for Belarus this is a debt hole. All this can lead to the loss of economic sovereignty and, as a result, the loss of statehood.

The countries of Central Asia are gradually becoming part of a new horde - the Global Empire created by China. Can Belarus become a part of it? And Ukraine?

China allocates loans to Ukraine, which in fact turn it into a food colony of China. On July 30, 2012, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine provided state guarantees for a loan from the Export-Import Bank of China in the amount of $3 billion for agriculture. Annual growth of export of Ukrainian agricultural products to China reached 25% ( http://www.regnum.ru/news/ posh/1595489.html).

China intends to purchase in Ukraine agricultural holdings with an area of ​​at least 200,000 hectares.

But, as the experience of other countries shows, China's land expansion is followed by military expansion. Are Belarus and

Ukraine to accept Chinese mercenaries, Chinese private military companies?

Ukraine, along with Chinese loans and investments, is also expecting an influx of Chinese migrants. In most of the contracts concluded, a special clause is the use of specialists from China in joint projects.

Thus, the great "yellow hegemon" adds to the number of available a new raw material colony in Ukraine, where control over the main agricultural arteries will be exercised by Chinese managers. And maybe soon Ukraine will turn into an outpost of Chinese civilization in Eastern Europe... (Bredikhin A. Yanukovych and Xi Jinping: cooperation or expansion?).

Beijing competes with Moscow not only on the territory of the countries of the post-Soviet space, but and on the territory of the Russian Federation itself, seizing the initiative from the federal center.

China's economic expansion extends to Russia as well. Will it become part of the Global Empire created by China?

This is called the policy of "Sinocentrism". It is aimed at strengthening of the Chinese presence in the Russian regions adjacent to China.

Beijing stimulates the long-term socio-economic "binding" of neighboring Russian regions to China.

By the end of November 2012, over 70% of these regions' foreign trade was with China.

Up to 80% of foreign investment in these regions is again Chinese.

The number of Chinese labor force in the same regions for 2010-2012 increased by 30% (in 2006-2010 the growth was 15-17%).

In addition, Chinese companies in these regions of Russia since 2011-2012. prefer long-term contracts for the import of labor, equipment, vehicles, as well as food and other consumer goods from China (Valiev A. Unpredictable Celestial Empire).

China is actively developing the territory of the Russian Far East, investing more funds in this region than the Russian government. According to the Xinhua agency, Chinese investors have established 34 special Chinese zones in the Amur Region, Primorsky and Khabarovsk Territories, as well as in the Jewish Autonomy, where they have invested about $3 billion. For comparison: Moscow transfers almost three times less money to the budgets of these regions - less than $1 billion

Moreover, Chinese investment in Russian lands is a purposeful state policy for the development of new territories. Xinhua writes: "With the permission of the governments of China and Russia, Chinese entrepreneurs can open industrial and agricultural zones in Russia, including areas for processing, breeding, construction, deforestation and wholesale markets."

China is already setting up special bodies on its territory

on management of development zones in Russia. According to Xinhua, "The Heilongjiang administration has formed a special leadership group that is responsible for dealing with issues arising in the process of construction and development of overseas industrial and agricultural zones." (Krasnov P. China leased Russian lands).

Heilongjiang is a border province neighboring Russia with a population of more than 38 million people and the administrative center in Harbin.

Competing with Moscow on the territory of the Russian Federation, China seeks to oust the federal center from Siberia and the Far East. As a result, China has actually achieved that the process of developing the Russian Far East is managed and controlled not so much from Moscow or Khabarovsk, but from Harbin - more precisely, from a "special leadership group" created by Chinese officials.

As noted by the Xinhua news agency, the Heilongjiang authorities have been "borrowing" land in Russia for more than a year. For example, only the border city of Mudanjiang rented in 2010

146.6 thousand hectares. This is 42% more than in 2009. (Krasnov P. China leased Russian lands).

China's economic expansion is taking place in parallel with demographic expansion.

China encourages, including financially, Chinese migration to the states of the post-Soviet space and the creation of emigrant networks there, subordinate to a specially created ministry and designed to ensure the interests of China.

The name of the emigration "huaqiao" is translated as "bridge to the Chinese coast".

Stolypin wrote about the Far East and the danger of other peoples penetrating there: “To leave this region without attention would be a manifestation of enormous state wastefulness. This edge cannot be fenced off with a stone wall. The East has awakened, gentlemen, and if we do not use these riches, then they will take them, at least by peaceful penetration, others will take them.

“In 2012, in terms of the number of visitors from China, Russia lost only to the United States. According to Chen Jiapeng, about 9 million Chinese citizens moved to Russia. Most of them - 5 million - live illegally.

To whom is illegal migration from China confined?

An extensive network of criminal groups involved in the movement of illegal migrants, controls the ChineseTriad (Chinese organized crime in the Far East of Russia).

The Chinese Triad means laocracy, that is, Magog.

Thus, illegal Chinese migrants are under the control of the Chinese Triad and serve its interests, the interests of the Invisible Khitania, closely associated with the Khazarocracy and the Invisible Khazaria.

Advisor to the Chairman of the Constitutional Court of the Russian Federation, retired Police Major General V. S. Ovchinsky writes: “The sociological research conducted by Russian scientists in the Chinese communities of Moscow, Irkutsk, Khabarovsk, Vladivostok, as well as the analysis of materials collected in Blagoveshchensk, Nizhny Novgorod, Rostov- on-Don, Barnaul and Belokurikha (Altai Territory), showed that Russia, like the whole world, is going through a turning point. Its essence lies in the formation of global Chinese migration and Chinese communities. Now the stage of their organized expansion and expansion of their entrepreneurial activities has begun. (Ovchinsky V.S. Mafia of the 21st century: made in China).

According to operational units, almost all Chinese communities are under the tacit control of their own mafia structures. The system of relationships in the fraternities is actually organized according to the "Triad" model

(strict obedience to shadow leaders, vow of silence, cruel punishment of the disobedient, etc. .) (Ovchinsky V.S. Mafia of the 21st century: made in China).

The Chinese "Triad" is considered the largest and most organized mafia organization in the world. Neither the Sicilian "Cosa Nostra", nor the Japanese yakuza, nor the Russian, nor any other mafia structure can compete with it. The largest Chinese diaspora in Ukraine is in Odessa. The Chinese began to settle in Ukraine in the mid-80s. In the Odessa region there are already entire Chinese villages with their own village councils

Victims Triads They don't go to the police to complain. The slightest appeal to the authorities for help will cost the lives of both them and all relatives in China. "Triad" is an organization that has interests all over the world. In any country where a Chinese diaspora appears, “Triad» will definitely be present(Kipling W. Harsh everyday life of the Chinese mafia).

Economic and demographic expansion can provide "effective control" over a "strategic area" such as Siberia and the Far East.

In this regard, noteworthy is the report of Doctor of Law E. Z. Imamov, with which he spoke at the end of 1993 at the annual conference of the Center for Historical and Political Studies of the Institute of the Far East of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The report notes the spread in the public mind of the "myth about some kind of successful complementarity" of the economies of Russia and China. “As a result, a flood of scammers poured out of China, eager to get Russia's raw materials resources, and the Russian myth about the complementarity of economies gave rise to illusions about some kind of investment opportunities for China. The Chinese took advantage of this.

SHSHSH*

When creating joint ventures, the report says, a Chinese businessman seeks to supply technological illiquid assets to Russia, sell stale and poor-quality goods, organize simple production ... get rubles, buy raw materials with them and take them to China for subsequent resale to the southern provinces countries. At the same time, the productive forces of Russia are intensively exploited and degraded. People are distracted, in essence, to serve the Chinese economic-territorial expansion. The predatory destruction of natural resources is activated, and the Chinese version of the colonialist methods of ownership and control - division, opposition, bribery, betrayal and deceit - is introduced into the practice of human relations, without which it is impossible to realize any expansionist aspirations.

Illusions about the investment opportunities of Chinese firms are also used by them to achieve such a dangerous strategic goal for Russia as the importation of settlers into our country to develop its living space ... Not knowing the language, culture, laws, traditions and customs of Russia, deprived of not only any or ambitions, but also professional skills, these people settle in the expanses of Russia as an alien element that is not included in the life around them and is, in fact, the ballast of social reality.

Based on the foregoing, the report points to the need to "develop measures to neutralize the economic and territorial claims of the PRC." This "suggests the development of the practice of restrictions in determining the scope of the legal status of a particular category of foreigners." In addition, "it is also necessary to strengthen state control over Chinese investment."

As it was emphasized in the report, “a fundamental adjustment is required in the provision on the “complementarity” of the economies of our countries. The main thing here is the need to convince the public that not China in relation to Russia, but, on the contrary, Russia in relation to China can act as a real investor with sufficient financial and technological capabilities. If the matter is set up correctly, China may turn out to be an ideal country for the export of capital for Russia, which, by the way, is not denied by the Chinese partners either.” (Problems of the Far East. 1994, No. 2).

Expansion can be not only peaceful - economic and demographic, but also non-peaceful - military.

Military expansion, in which the Chinese armed forces play the main role, is enshrined in concept of "strategic boundaries and living space". This concept was developed to justify the offensive combat operations of the Chinese Armed Forces.

The concept implies the transfer of hostilities from the border areas to the zones of "strategic borders".

The concept does not indicate a specific direction in which the boundaries of living space will expand. But it is obvious that expansion can only occur towards Russia.

and republics of Central Asia (Khramchi-khinA. With whom will China fight? http://apn.kz (21.09.06)).

The pretext for aggression could be the violation of the "proper rights and interests of overseas Chinese."

Russian diplomat and sinologist Alexander Yakovlevich Maksimov (1851-1896), in his work “Our Tasks in the Pacific Ocean” at the end of the 19th century. wrote: "It must not be forgotten that A. Ya. Maksimov China, with all its friendly relations with Russia, always keeps a stone in its bosom, with which it often and painfully beat us, but it always enjoyed our extreme trust and chivalrous honesty, used us, more than once deceived and insulted by it.

In a 1992 issue of the Russian Language Study magazine, a philologist named Cheng Daotsai writes: “Six cities in Russia near the Russian-Chinese border have two names each: Russian and Chinese. If we turn to history, it becomes clear that these are historical and cultural traces left by the aggressions of tsarist Russia against China.” These are the cities of Khabarovsk, Vladivostok, Blagoveshchensk, Ussuriysk, Nikolaevsk-on-Amur, Nerchinsk.

Military analysts write that Russia, concerned about aggressive plans to build up the US military presence in Central Asia, does not pay due attention to countering China's creeping expansion there.

As Professor Li Kuan-chun noted, strategically the interests of the two powers are in confrontation and Central Asia is doomed sooner or later to return under the wing of one of them.

Information from the field - what is happening on Lake Baikal and the Far East. Does Chinese expansion threaten Russia?

Anna Sochina

I am sure you have heard more than once that Putin allegedly sold Siberia to the Chinese, the Chinese are massively seizing our Far Eastern territories and so on. Maybe you even agree with this opinion - well, I want to talk about this so-called intervention, and to make the task easier, let's focus on the territory near Lake Baikal.

The petition of a resident of the city of Angarsk, who is concerned about the "Chinese-style intervention" and asks the president to pay attention to the problem, is gaining rapid popularity. The petition, which has already collected more than 58,000 signatures, refers mainly to the village of Listvyanka, located right on the shore of Lake Baikal, but in general, the situation is also typical for other coastal settlements.

Right on the shore of the lake, the Chinese are buying up plots, registering them as individual housing construction, they have every right to do this by law, and then they simply hang a sign on the cottage and please, the hotel is ready. At the moment, only 3 or 4 are legally registered as Chinese hotels in Listvyanka, all the rest (now there are about 15 to 20 of them) do not pay any taxes to the Russian treasury.

The State Duma drew attention to the situation - according to Mikhail Shchapov, a deputy from the Irkutsk region, who had already discussed this issue with a delegation from Listvyanka, the main problem lies in our legislation, and not in the dominance of the Chinese. According to the parliamentarian, the legislation around Lake Baikal is very contradictory: there are many unnecessary prohibitions and there are huge gaps.

The fact is that when it comes to Baikal, it should be borne in mind that this is a nature protection zone, where many different norms operate simultaneously - what can I say, there is even a separate law. As a result, all these norms come into conflict with each other, and it is extremely difficult to open a legal hotel on the territory near the lake.

The same opinion is shared by Deputy Sergei Ten, who is in charge of the direction in the Duma on the problems of Baikal. According to him, they have already begun to discuss how to improve the laws for both Russian and Chinese entrepreneurs in order to stop illegal development of the coastal zone. The key condition for this is the receipt of taxes in the Russian treasury, which is currently not happening. But while the deputies are working on new norms regarding construction, I still have a question for the local authorities: it’s not very clear how you can turn a blind eye to a dozen illegal hotels under your nose - only if you don’t earn money on it, of course.

With all this, it is important to note that illegal hotels on Baikal are opened not only by the Chinese, but also by the Russians themselves, and in general, this happens everywhere in our country, throughout the country. Another fact causes concern - construction causes serious harm to the environment, because, for example, mountains that are part of the natural landscape are torn off in coastal areas. Garbage from construction, pollution of the lake - all this is in the same piggy bank. But the fact that Baikal has such a huge number of tourists from China is not surprising - this is logical, primarily because of the geographical location, in addition, they enjoy visa benefits, they have a lot of money in the current ratio of the ruble and yuan, they, in after all, they make up the bulk of tourists visiting Russia.

And since we are talking about tourism, according to experts, the growing flow of tourists, in particular from China, and more than a million people arrived in 2017, increases the income of fifty-three sectors of the economy at once, and the Chinese spend more than two billion dollars in Russia annually. And so that this figure continues to grow, in the fall, our government decided to expand the possibilities for visa-free visits for Chinese citizens. I understand that the author of the petition is frightened by the influx of Chinese tourists, and I agree that it is simply necessary to regulate tourist flows - this, by the way, is also taken care of in the Duma, but it is strange to call all this expansion. Then the same Chinese expansion can be observed in Paris, Rome, Barcelona or St. Petersburg.

And then, with our tourist infrastructure, we need to rejoice at the influx of tourists. When I watched the stories of the local media about the situation in Listvyanka, I was most struck not by the dominance of the Chinese, but by the fact that there is no sewage system. What is surprising - the direct contribution of tourism to Russia's GDP is 1 percent, while in the leading economies - 3-5 percent, according to the Institute for Comprehensive Strategic Studies. This situation has developed for two reasons: a completely undeveloped infrastructure in most resorts and gray business schemes arising from it.

But returning to the conversation about Chinese expansion. Most clearly, this map shows the failure of all this panic. So, in China, 94 percent of the population is concentrated in large cities in the southeast of the country.

In the northern provinces, however, as you can see, the population is not at all dense. Now let's look at the proportion of the population in Russia: 6 percent live in Siberia and the Far East. From all this the question arises: why the hell should the Chinese settle in these territories if they do not even live in their own north?

No, I do not deny that we are leasing territories to the Chinese. But these territories are much smaller than is commonly believed. Among the well-known transactions, one can cite an agreement between the Chinese company Huae Xinbang and the government of the Trans-Baikal Territory on the lease of 115,000 hectares of land for 49 years so that the Chinese can grow crops on this land. The volume of investments at the same time amounted to about 24 billion rubles - at the rate for 2015. What would happen if “Huae Xinbang” wasn’t there? Most likely, the land would simply be empty. Further in the background The same applies to the Khabarovsk and Primorsky Territories - despite the fact that hundreds of thousands of hectares have been leased there since 2009, only 2.5 thousand Chinese came to work from 2009 to 2015.

How the Chinese cultivate the leased land is another matter. They use harmful chemicals, do not comply with environmental regulations, clean up forests, and so on. And if the Russian authorities want to cope with this situation, then there is only one way, besides strengthening the work of supervisory authorities, of course. This is the activation of the economic and social life of the Far East.

A good example is the program "Far Eastern hectare" - now more than 34 thousand plots have already been given for use, more than 70 thousand applications are under consideration. But, again, just a site is offered, and no one is talking about infrastructure in the form of at least roads.

If the programs for the development of the Far East are implemented with high quality, the ratio of 94 to 6 may change, and there will definitely not be any need to worry about the expansion of the Chinese. But if local authorities again choose to enrich themselves through illegal development of nature protection zones, neither tourism nor the economy as a whole will develop in these regions.

China began to expand into Russia a long time ago.

The sharp deterioration in relations with the West is forcing Russia to seek financial, economic and political support in the East, where China is its main ally.

But careful analysis shows that Beijing, in its "alliant" relations with Moscow, pursues far-reaching insidious goals and in the future poses a serious threat to the territorial integrity of Russia.

In a couple of decades, China will become the number one problem for Russia. Because with the further strengthening of China's economic power, it will “swallow” a significant part of the territory of Russia through economic expansion, and in the event of the collapse of the political and economic system of the PRC, millions of Chinese will pour into Russia (yes, they are already flowing).

Chinese wisdom says: “If the enemy is defeated from within, seize his lands. If the enemy is defeated from without, take possession of his people. If the defeat is inside and outside, then take the whole state".

In its expansionist policy, the Celestial Empire follows this wisdom, relying on its growing economic power and a mobilized dynamic Chinese diaspora abroad, and the long-suffering and prudence of the Chinese help it realize its goals.

As a result, Chinese people control powerful financial and trade flows in their countries of residence.

For example, in Indonesia, the Chinese are only 4%, but they control about 75% of listed companies and nine of the ten largest financial groups. In Thailand, more than 80% of the capital of listed companies is controlled by the Chinese. A similar situation is developing in Malaysia, the Philippines, Australia, Burma, Laos, Vietnam, and even the United States.

After the collapse of the USSR, China launched an open economic intervention in Russia and the countries of Central Asia, where a certain vacuum formed. The PRC is advancing on the oil and gas fields of Central Asia and the Caspian Sea.

Moreover, Chinese expansion in these territories is not only economic, but also demographic. The main wave of mass Chinese migration after the collapse of the USSR was taken over by Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, as well as Siberia and the Russian Far East.

In recent years, the "Chinese factor" has become a serious problem in the internal political life of Kazakhstan, as evidenced by ethno-social conflicts at large Chinese enterprises located in the republic, including at the oil fields of the China National Oil Company in Western Kazakhstan.

In the early 1990s, Chinatowns began to appear in Alma-Ata and East Kazakhstan regions, bordering China.

The Chinese first occupied the niche of wholesale and retail trade in consumer goods, and then in the former capital, Alma-Ata, places of their compact residence were formed in a short time. Within the city - in the villages of Druzhba, Ainabulak and Zarya Vostoka, as well as in the Zhetysu microdistrict, Chinatowns appeared.

The same situation has developed in the city of Ust-Kamenogorsk in the east of the country. Locals say that the lightning-fast takeover of Kazakhstani markets, and with the help of goods of far from the best quality, occurred as a result of a well-planned operation by Chinese intelligence agencies.

The Chinese quickly and consistently ousted not only Kazakhs and Russians, but also Uighurs and Koreans from small wholesale markets.

The mass migration of the Chinese has become a headache for the leadership of Kyrgyzstan. After the collapse of the USSR, many Kyrgyz returned to a nomadic lifestyle and left their places of permanent residence. At the same time, Chinese citizens began to come to the republic, who quickly master the lands abandoned by their owners and settle down there for a long time.

Local authorities acknowledge that it is becoming increasingly difficult to prevent mass migration from neighboring China every year. She was practically out of control.

Today, Chinatowns are rapidly spreading in Russia - across Siberia and the entire Far East. The Chinese successfully compete with representatives of local commercial capital and other "trading minorities" - Caucasians. Russian-Chinese cross-border trade is developing rapidly, the volume of which exceeds 15 billion dollars a year.

Considering that the border business is small, it becomes clear that almost half of the Far East residents are directly or indirectly involved in it. The massive influx of cheap Chinese goods into the Russian market has become the main cause of the crisis in Russia's light industry.

Eastern regions of Russia on the verge of the demographic expansion of the Chinese

Since the second half of the 1990s, the population of the Far East, Western and Eastern Siberia has decreased by almost 40%. Experts of economic forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences assert that the trends of population decline in the coming years will cover 73 out of 85 subjects of the Russian Federation.

The population in the Siberian Federal District decreased by 5.55% - from 20 million 447 thousand people in 2003 to 19 million 312 thousand people as of January 1, 2015, and in the Far Eastern Federal District the population for the specified period decreased immediately by 11.27 % - from 7 million to 6 million 211 thousand people.

Moreover, the reduction occurred at the expense of the Russians.

The Far East is especially afraid of the Chinese invasion. The governors of the Far Eastern regions, demanding budget allocations from Moscow, openly say: "Give us money, or in 20 years we will all be speaking Chinese here." In the PRC, a country of 1.378 billion people, the development of Russia's largest and most resource-rich regions - Siberia and the Far East - is considered a "national challenge" and a priority for the Chinese nation.

For this, a lot of money and human resources are used. Today, more than 300 million people live in the regions of China bordering Russian territory. The population density on the Chinese side of the border is in some places even 30 times higher than on the Russian side.

In the coming years, hundreds of millions of “extra men” and unemployed people from China may pour into Russia. Due to the policy of "one family - one child", the male part of the PRC population has increased dramatically. Since a man is considered the successor of the clan in the East, many Chinese families prefer to give birth to a boy.

As a result, today the male population exceeds the female population by 140-170 million people. This is 10-12% of the population of China. Because of this, today many Chinese men cannot find a bride in their homeland, and many of them marry Russian girls and settle in Russia.

And hidden unemployment in Chinese cities is estimated at an average of 20% of the total population of China. It turns out 275 million people, which is almost twice as much as the population of Russia.

Under the USSR, the number of Uzbeks, Kyrgyz, Tajiks, Azerbaijanis and Armenians in what was then Russia - the RSFSR did not exceed tens of thousands of people. However, after the collapse of the USSR, many residents of the former Soviet republics moved to Russia. As a result, the number of immigrants from the CIS republics in Russia today is in the millions.

The tacit mass migration of Chinese to Russia is taking place in an organized manner under the supervision of the Chinese special services. Therefore, in the near future, mass Chinese migration to the Russian Federation may have serious military and political consequences. Chinese strategists are already openly saying that China is no longer satisfied with its own territory (9.6 million square kilometers).

In this regard, experts believe that the PRC authorities transferred the growth of the birth rate of the Chinese from China outside its borders and, first of all, to “sparsely populated” Russia, moreover, the Chinese have instructions from the special services of their homeland in this regard.

In this, the Chinese authorities are helped by the high mobility of the Chinese and their willingness to move to other places in search of work and better living conditions, as well as a close-knit and well-organized Chinese diaspora that has formed in many countries of the world.

After strengthening the Chinese in the eastern regions of the Russian Federation, China can openly claim these territories. The Chinese will first open their national-cultural centers, then "self-government" and autonomy will be demanded in places where the Chinese are densely populated.

In the end, the government of the Celestial Empire at this "X hour" will declare its determination to protect the interests of Chinese-speaking citizens in neighboring countries.

Beijing is already trying to dictate its terms to Russia at the international level, demanding that it remove all restrictions on the movement of labor from China. China will "swallow" Russia slowly, smiling in her face.

It is no longer possible to interfere with this. After the anti-Russian sanctions of the West, the Russian Federation itself climbs into the mouth of the “Chinese dragon”, which, showing Russia friendly gestures, actually takes a “comfortable position” to “imperceptibly” for Moscow and “without harm” to its stomach swallow a significant part of the ally’s territory.

This is similar to how a frog is boiled, unnoticed by it, over low heat. Beijing, using "Chinese dominance", is trying to strangle Russia quietly, regularly voicing friendly statements about it. He already today takes an ambiguous position towards the banks of the Russian Federation, leaving the Russian economy without financial resources.

First Deputy Chairman of the Board of VTB Yuri Solovyov said that Chinese banks have limited operations with Russian banks after the introduction of US and EU sanctions against Russia. “Chinese banks have significantly reduced their participation in foreign trade transactions, in particular, trade finance,” Yu. Solovyov wrote.

Let me remind you that the branch of VTB Bank in Shanghai is the only Russian bank that has a financial license to operate in China. Meanwhile, it should be noted that over the past 25 years, all territorial disputes between Russia and China have been resolved in favor of the latter. They appeared after Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev signed an agreement with China in 1991 establishing a Sino-Soviet border along the Amur fairway.

After this agreement, the Chinese had the opportunity to challenge many of the islands located on the Amur on the border of the two countries from Russia. The fact is that demarcation lines have not yet been finally established on this section of the state border, and the bed of the Amur River is constantly changing.

Therefore, immediately after the signing of the treaty, the Chinese built more than 300 kilometers of dams on their shore in order to change the border lines in favor of China. After that, the Russian coast began to rapidly erode, and under the agreements of July-September 1992 on the Russian-Chinese border, as well as during the demarcation of the border in November 1995, about 600 islands on the Amur and Ussuri rivers, plus more than 20 square kilometers of Russian territory in Ussuriysky and Khasansky areas of Primorsky Krai had to be transferred to China.

In compensation, Russia received only 0.3 square kilometers of Chinese territory. But the most powerful blow for the inhabitants of the Russian Far East was the Russian-Chinese agreement signed in October 2004 during the visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to China. The Russian leader donated disputed territories to his neighbors: Tarabarov Island and half of the Big Ussuri Island on the Amur River.

After that, Khabarovsk said that Moscow had spat on the interests of the region, which had been fighting for 10 years to keep these islands as part of Russia. The question of the Russian ownership of these islands has long been the cornerstone of the policy of the then governor of the Khabarovsk Territory, Viktor Ishaev.

Very often, it was the sovereign rhetoric about the “indivisibility of Russian borders” that was the decisive factor in the support of the then Khabarovsk authorities by the people. “It was very disappointing to receive such a spit from Moscow. For many years we spent huge amounts of money on strengthening the border, dredging works, and settling the islands.

It turns out that for the sake of some momentary economic interests, Russia is sacrificing part of its ancestral territory, ”the administration of the Khabarovsk governor said at the time. In the Far East, it is believed that Vladimir Putin signed an agreement on the voluntary transfer of the islands to the PRC in order to conclude multibillion-dollar contracts with the Celestial Empire.

Until 2004, there were Russian frontier posts and 16,000 summer cottages of Khabarovsk residents on Bolshoi Ussuriysky Island. But the new state border divided this island in half. Part of the island - with the dachas of the inhabitants of Khabarovsk - remained with Russia, while the other part went to China.

And the island of Tarabarov, where there were several buildings of private firms, was completely transferred to the PRC. In total, in 2004, the Chinese got 337 square kilometers of Russian territory. Far Eastern economists have calculated that the transfer of these islands to the PRC caused damage to the region in the amount of 4 billion dollars.

The hidden Chinese expansion of the eastern regions of the Russian Federation and the sad story of 600 islands transferred to the PRC indicate that Beijing is an insidious ally for Moscow and soon the “friendly” Chinese dragon may turn into the most dangerous enemy.

Mehman Gafarli

With a certain frequency, the Kazakhstani information space is blown up by another message about the Chinese threat. In my memory, there were several information waves of this kind in the history of sovereign Kazakhstan.

One of the first was associated with the discrediting of the once popular and inexpensive Chinese beer in the early 90s. Some people saw behind this the intrigues of Kazakh brewers.

Then there was a powerful discussion about the expediency of transferring part of Kazakhstani territory to China in order to finally resolve the border issue.

Then quite reasonable talk began to sound about the threat of an ecological catastrophe in East Kazakhstan in connection with the problem of the Black Irtysh and China's unwillingness to sign an international agreement on transboundary rivers.

A little later, information appeared that the republic was going to lease 1 million hectares of land to China for 99 years. And almost all the time the danger of a quiet demographic expansion is mentioned, which practically no one fixes, although various figures come up - up to 300,000 Chinese in Kazakhstan.

And since 2010, the point of view about a serious increase in the Chinese share in the oil and gas pie of Kazakhstan has become quite popular.

If we analyze all points of view related to the assessment of the Chinese threat to Kazakhstan over the past twenty-odd years, then those who voiced them can be divided into four groups.

Zvonari

The first group are pessimists who, exaggerating, and somewhere relying on specific data, like “ringers”, all the time “sound the alarm”, drawing attention to the presence of vulnerable zones in the relations of our republic with its eastern neighbor. The emphasis is on the most important of these areas.

1. Excessive growth of Chinese influence in the oil and gas sector of the republic, which poses a risk to the national security of the country. One recent example is the information that appeared in the media last week that the share of Chinese companies in the Kazakh oil industry in 2013 will exceed 40% . Naturally, the official response was not long in coming, and it was predictably optimistic. The share of KazMunayGas as the majority shareholder in KMG EP remains unchanged at 57,9% , and the share of China Investment Corporation does not exceed 11% . Although in this spoonful of honey there is also “the total share of minority investors of KMG EP JSC, whose shares ( 31% ) are in free circulation. Perhaps the source of alarmist forecasts had in mind when he spoke about companies controlled by China Investment Corporation.

In general, as noted website However, it is rather difficult to calculate the exact proportion of oil produced in Kazakhstan that is owned by the Chinese, even despite the publication of a list of oil companies with Chinese participation operating in Kazakhstan. But it is interesting to note that not in 2013, but in 2010, the first statements appeared that China already owns about 40% of Kazakhstan's oil and gas resources. These statements were voiced by both representatives of the Kazakhstani opposition and some members of parliament, who were concerned about the increase in the presence of Chinese business in the country's economy, especially after the government of Kazakhstan received loans from China in the amount of $13 billion. From this, by the way, follows another argument of the pessimists.

2. The Kazakh economy is increasingly hooked on the needle of Chinese investments and loans. By the way, this applies not only to Kazakhstan, but also to most countries of Central Asia. Last September Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, speaking at the Sino-Eurasian Economic Cooperation Forum in Urumqi, said that over the past 10 years, China's direct investment in Central Asian countries has totaled about $250 billion. Some are alarmed by the fact that if there are sufficient funds in the National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan ( about $57.8 billion), which could be used as investments in strategic projects, the republic prefers to take loans from China. First of all, we are talking about infrastructure projects, be it the construction of the Moinak hydroelectric power station in the Almaty region, for which the Chinese also allocated a loan. or the introduction of the Atasu-Alashankou oil pipeline, which in 2014 should operate at full capacity ( up to 20 million tons annually). One can also add here the Beineu-Bozoi-Shymkent gas pipeline, where KazTransGas JSC is the participant from the Kazakh side, and Trans-Asia Gas Pipeline Co. from the Chinese side. Ltd. By the way, this gas pipeline, which should reduce the dependence of the country's southern regions on imported gas supplies, was named a nationwide project, which was even included in the Industrialization Map for 2010-2014.

3. Domestic markets for oil products in Kazakhstan may become dependent on China in the future. Now such a dependence exists in the republic in relation to Russia, but pessimists pay attention to the activation of Kazakhstan's tolling operations abroad. For this, certain changes were even made to the legislative base in the republic, after the adoption of the laws “On the main pipeline”, as well as “On introducing amendments and additions to some legislative acts on issues of the main pipeline and taxation”. At the same time, the processing of Kazakh oil in China, according to the official version, was caused by the workload of local refineries. Now, according to the agreements, tolling operations with China involve the processing of Kazakh oil in XUAR at refineries in Dushanzi or Urumqi. Annually from the republic they are going to deliver to China about 1.5 million tons oil and get back 1 million tons high-octane gasoline per year. For the sake of objectivity, it should be said that Kazakhstan is considering the possibility of tolling not only with China, but also with Belarus, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan.

4. The economic cooperation between the PRC and Kazakhstan is completely subordinated to the tasks of developing the Chinese economy. The growing domestic demand for energy resources in the PRC reinforces the transformation of Kazakhstan into a raw material appendage of not only the Western, but also the Chinese economy. Although, on the other hand, the question arises: “And who is to blame for the fact that twenty years after the collapse of the USSR, we are still sitting on a raw material needle, forming our budgets based on the world market for raw materials prices?” Hardly China.

5. The economic situation will worsen as soon as Kazakhstan becomes a member of the WTO, which will finally turn the republic into a consumer of cheap Chinese goods and a supplier of raw materials. It should be recalled here that back in 2011, China announced that it wanted to create free economic zones on the borders with Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan in order to increase trade between China and these countries. Apparently, this plan is already being implemented, since on December 17, 2013, the State Council of the PRC officially approved a plan to create a county-level city in Alashankou, 12 km from the Dostyk checkpoint in Kazakhstan. For now, the Customs Union is a certain barrier to Chinese trade. But its long-term prospects are also rather vague, especially if we recall the saying that the Chinese prefer to think centuries ahead.

6. The ecological situation in Eastern Kazakhstan will worsen due to the increasing water intake from transboundary rivers by China for the development of its northwestern regions. Some experts believe that by 2015 China will select half river drainage, and by 2025 already 65% . In addition to environmental issues, hydropower Anatoly Beloslyudov, who has been dealing with this problem for a long time, believes that by 2020 the electricity deficit in East Kazakhstan will be, with an optimistic forecast from 1 to 2.7 billion kilowatt-hours, and with a pessimistic one - 5.4 billion kilowatt-hours. In this case, there is a real threat to the economic security of the republic.

7. The demographic pressure from China will increase as the activity of Chinese business in the country expands. On this occasion, in 2011, some members of parliament already voiced an assumption about “Chinese demographic expansion” directed at Kazakhstan, and a proposal was made to tighten the law on migration.

8. As the economic influence of Chinese companies in Kazakhstan increases, a clear pro-Chinese lobby in the local political and business elite may appear in the country. But if, for example, one reads some Kazakhstani publications, mostly of an oppositional orientation, then, in their opinion, such a lobby already exists in the elite.

philosophy of bamboo

Bruce Lee once said: “The American is like an oak, he stands firmly on the ground, does not bend in the wind, and if the wind blows harder, he breaks. Oriental man is like bamboo, he bends in the wind, but then straightens up and becomes even stronger than before. In relation to China, Kazakh "conformists" proceed from the same "philosophy of bamboo", citing the following arguments:

1. According to the forecasts of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, by the end of 2016, China will take the first place in the world in terms of the size of the economy, as its GDP will exceed that of the US and will be greater than that of all eurozone countries combined. Therefore, in any case, Kazakhstan should maintain close economic relations with China, initially recognizing its inability to compete with the economic giant.

2. Kazakhstan does not have any serious political and economic leverage to put pressure on China, which initially weakens the country's position in the negotiation process. The only way to curb the Chinese appetite is to play on the balance of interests of other geopolitical players. First of all, we are talking about Russia and the United States. Although, in terms of trade with Kazakhstan, China has already left Russia behind.

3. Kazakhstan exaggerates its importance for China. The economic and demographic expansion of China is also observed in other CIS countries, which are in need of both labor and investment. This is a natural process of migration of services, capital and labor in the context of globalization. And for China, our republic is just one of the puzzles in its global game of strengthening its economic and political positions.

All is calm in Baghdad

Those who are optimistic about the prospects for Kazakh-Chinese cooperation include our official structures, which at all levels reassure the public with the theses that all rumors about the Chinese threat are greatly exaggerated.

1. Back in 2010 Kairgeldy Kabyldin, then the head of the national oil and gas company KazMunayGas, said that the oil and gas sector of Kazakhstan is not threatened by the expansion of China. According to Kabyldin, KMG's share in Kazakhstani oil production in 2010 amounted to 28% , US companies - 24% , China - 22% , Europe - 17% and Russia - 9% . A similar point of view was shared by the former Minister of the Oil and Gas Industry of the Republic of Kazakhstan Nurlan Balgimbaev, who believes that enterprises with Chinese participation do not have significant resource potential in Kazakhstan. Moreover, in the same year, a representative of the Investment Profitability Research Agency generally stated that the share of companies with Chinese participation in oil production in the Republic of Kazakhstan should not increase, but, on the contrary, decrease by 2020. up to 15 %. Although there was a small caveat. This forecast will come true if the PRC does not make new oil and gas acquisitions in the republic. In 2011 Yerzhan Kazykhanov, then still the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Kazakhstan, calculated that the main economic partner of Kazakhstan is not China, but the European Union, the volume of trade with which reaches $40 billion. As for the oil and gas sector, the minister had other figures, according to which 16% percent of all explored and developed oil and gas reserves in the Caspian belong to the Americans, and together with the British share, this amounts to almost 50%.

2. Oil and gas cooperation with China increases the number of alternative routes for the transportation of energy resources for Kazakhstan, which reduces dependence on Russia. Direct, without intermediaries, Kazakhstan's access to the gigantic and eternally hungry energy market of China through the construction of an oil and gas pipeline will allow us to count on significant profits in the future. According to expert estimates, since 2005 the Chinese market has been absorbing about a third increase in world oil supply. In May 2003, China, repeating the European and American strategies, began to build strategic oil reserves. According to forecasts, by 2025 OPEC countries will provide 66% Chinese oil imports, and the former USSR about 20%. Already in 2012, compared with 2011, China increased oil imports by 6.8%, bringing it up to 271 million tons. By 2015, according to experts, China's demand for oil may increase up to 540 million tons per year. As for gas, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that by 2013 China will be the world's third largest gas consumer after the US and Russia. And in 2017, demand may be 273 billion cubic meters per year.

Make lemonade out of lemons

It has long been said that a pessimist is a well-informed optimist. If we continue the thesis, then realists are something between pessimists and optimists.

Their arguments:

1. Speaking about Chinese economic expansion, one should be objective and pay attention to other players. For example, to Western multinationals, which have long owned the fattest pieces of the Kazakh oil and gas pie under production sharing agreements (PSA) closed to the public, or to Russia, which is already suspected of expansionist tendencies within the Customs Union. Fuel is added to the fire by a fresh message that after the purchase for $1.3 billion stake in the Canadian company Uranium One Inc. Russian Atomredmetzoloto will control uranium assets in Kazakhstan.

2. Unlike Western TNCs, the majority of Chinese oil and gas companies operate in Kazakhstan not on the basis of PSA, which often infringed upon the economic interests of the republic, but according to the norms of the current tax legislation.

3. China's investment policy in Kazakhstan is no different from investment policy in other countries and regions of the world, be it Africa, Latin America or the Middle East. It is always based on the strict upholding of the national and economic interests of the PRC, which our officials should learn from. In addition, China will continue lending on a preferential basis to all SCO countries, which include most of the countries of Central Asia.

4. With all the desire of Chinese companies to strengthen their positions in the oil and gas sector of Kazakhstan, they have a counterweight in the face of other foreign investors. And we are talking not only about Western companies, but also about new players. The fact that ConocoPhillips has announced its agreement to sell 8.4 percent share in the project for the development of the Kashagan field, not by the Chinese, but by the Indian company ONGC Videsh Limited, speaks of interesting trends. For an Indian company, participation in the Kashagan project is fundamental, given the growing competition between Indian, Chinese and South Korean oil and gas companies for access to oil and gas resources of different countries. It cannot be ruled out that such competition in the republic is purposefully encouraged by the leadership of Kazakhstan.

5 . China will not be able to ensure complete dominance in Central Asia due to the presence of a mass of serious internal problems that will sooner or later make themselves felt. These are predominantly extensive development of production with its high cost, low qualification of the vast majority of workers and, accordingly, low product quality. This is the low efficiency of state-owned enterprises that hide unemployment. This is the ever-deepening division of the country into backward agricultural and rapidly growing industrial regions, as well as social stratification. China is increasingly like a "steam boiler" that can explode.

And the main task of Kazakhstan is to extract more pluses from the neighborhood with China than minuses. As they say, "make lemonade out of lemons." To a large extent, this depends on a well-defined strategy for cooperation with China in the short, medium and long term, taking into account all possible problems and benefits. Ultimately, it is not China's economic expansion that poses a threat, but Kazakhstan's corruption, which makes it possible to conclude contracts that are unfavorable for the country and strikes at the economic security of Kazakhstan. After all, any investor plays according to those official or unofficial rules of the game that exist in the country of his residence. And if these rules are not beneficial for Kazakhstan, then this is the fault of local officials, not investors.