Will the Kurils be given to the Japanese. The fate of the southern smokers can be decided by the economic forum in Vladivostok. The sea is closed, the sea is open

Russian President Vladimir Putin invited Japan to conclude a peace treaty before the end of 2018 without preconditions. The Russian leader made such a statement at the plenary session of the Eastern Economic Forum. According to Putin, on the basis of a peace treaty, the two countries will be able "as friends" to resolve all contentious issues "that we have not been able to deal with for 70 years."

Settlement of a territorial dispute about ownership Kuril Islands he suggested postponing. “It can be written right away in this agreement that we will strive to resolve these issues. I am sure we will do it someday,” Putin added.

Previously proposed to conclude a peace treaty with Russia and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. He has not yet given an answer to the new proposal of his Russian colleague. “We intend to continue to conduct close negotiations in accordance with our course, which is to sign a peace treaty, resolving the issue of ownership of the four islands. In this regard, our position is unchanged," the Japanese Foreign Ministry commented on Putin's proposal.

Will Russia and Japan finally be able to put an end to World War II and sign a peace treaty? AiF.ru found it out from Head of the Center for Japanese Studies of the Institute Far East RAS Valery Kistanov.

Gleb Ivanov, AiF.ru: - Valery Olegovich, what prevented the two countries from concluding a peace treaty in the 70 years that have passed since the end of World War II?

Valery Kistanov: - The notorious territorial problem interfered. All these years, Japan has demanded the return of 4 South Kuril Islands which she considers her ancestral territories.

In 1956, the USSR and Japan were negotiating a peace treaty. Then the Japanese were inclined to conclude it on the terms of the return of two of the four islands: Shikotan and Habomai. But then the Americans intervened. They threatened that if the treaty was concluded on such terms, they would not return Okinawa to the Japanese. The Japanese fought back and began to demand all four islands again.

Since then, the Japanese establishment has not conceived of concluding a peace treaty with Russia without solving the territorial problem. And this means for them the return of all four islands.

What did Putin's proposal change?

- If you decipher what our president said, you get the following: "There is no need to link the conclusion of a peace treaty with the territorial problem." In fact, he clarified our usual position. The problem is that the Japanese position on this issue fundamentally differs from our approach. Therefore, there will be no peace treaty before the end of the year. This I guarantee you. This will not happen in the coming years either, because in Japan no politician will agree to give up claims to the islands. This will mean political death for him.

- Abe said earlier that he was ready to conclude a peace treaty on the condition of "immediate return of the two islands." What does this mean and can it be called a softening of the Japanese position?

The Japanese have never refused to return all four islands. Under Abe, they simply declared their readiness to return them, as they say, "in installments." Immediately after the conclusion of the agreement - two islands, and later - two more. Habomai and Shikotan can be returned according to the Soviet-Japanese declaration of 1956, which states that the USSR "as a gesture of goodwill" is ready to transfer the two islands of Tokyo, but only, I emphasize, after the conclusion of a peace treaty.

In fact, Putin recognized this declaration after a long and complicated story regarding the attitude of our authorities towards this document. At times Gromyko we canceled this declaration, Gorbachev acknowledged her, Yeltsin there were many negotiations Medvedev said: "Not an inch of native land." When Putin came to his third term, he said that a way out of the impasse had to be found, and he suggested starting from the declaration.

After that, the Japanese considered that the two islands were already in their pocket: they say, Putin recognized the Japanese rights to them, although before that we had long refused to even discuss this issue. After that, Abe's position was formed: we get two islands at once and are negotiating the return of two more. Moreover, it is desirable that Russia recognize Japan's sovereignty over them. This is their "softening" position.

Of course, this does not suit us. For Russia, the return of Kunashir and Iturup is a revision of the results of World War II. We want Japan to recognize the results of the war and conclude a peace treaty. And only after that we will negotiate the territory.

- In exchange for the islands, the Japanese offer injections into the Russian economy. However, Japan is one of the key allies of the United States. They follow the sanctions imposed on Russia because of the return of Crimea. What kind of economic cooperation can we talk about then?

- The Japanese, of course, can not do anything without looking at Washington. They depend heavily on him for military and commercial purposes. Therefore, they are ready to cooperate with Russia within certain limits, as long as it does not cause irritation in Washington.

The cooperation proposed by Abe is not of a global nature. There are no projects that will allow our trading volumes to skyrocket. And then, the Russian economy is not particularly interesting for Japanese business. We have a bad investment climate. The only thing that really interests Japan is energy resources. We supply them with gas, oil, non-ferrous metals, aluminum. They send us cars in return. Our trade volume is meager: $17 billion. South Korea he is more. Japanese investments in the Russian Federation are only $2 billion. In the Far East, their investments account for only 2% of all foreign ones. This is very little.

So it must be admitted that Japanese hopes that we will give them the islands as a token of gratitude for economic assistance have little to do with reality.

The Japanese side plans to raise the issue of transferring the South Kuriles to Japan at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, which will be held on September 2-3. In the event of the transfer of the islands to Japan, their inhabitants will have to leave their homes, said Yoshihide Tsuga, Secretary General of the Cabinet of Japan. The newspaper reported "Uralinformburo". /website/

On September 2, Vladimir Putin will meet with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe as part of the Eastern Economic Forum. Among other topics, the issue of territorial affiliation four islands Southern Kuriles: Iturup, Kunashir, Shikotan and the Habomai archipelago, which Japan claims since the end of World War II.

On Thursday, the Japanese newspaper Mainichi reported that if the four islands were handed over to it, the Japanese authorities would allow local Russian residents to continue living in the South Kuriles.

A refutation of the publication's message followed on the same day. “We are aware of such reports, but they are not true,” Yoshihide Suga, Secretary General of the Cabinet of Ministers of Japan, quotes TASS.

At the end of May, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Russia would not give up the Kuril Islands and did not pretend to sign a peace treaty with Japan.

About the inscription "Our Kuriles"

On the eve of resolving the issue of the territorial affiliation of the Kuriles in Vladivostok, an inscription in huge letters “Our Kurils” appeared on the support of the road junction on the highway to Russky Island. It was placed next to the image of the Crimean peninsula and the inscription since 2014 “Russian Island, Crimea is Russian!” SakhalinMedia reports.

According to the publication, most of the cars heading to the venue of the economic forum pass by this inscription.

Japanese claims to the islands

The Japanese substantiate their demands with a bilateral treatise on trade and borders of 1855 between Russia and Japan. According to him, "the entire island of Iturup belongs to Japan, and the entire island of Urup and the other Kuril Islands to the north constitute the possession of Russia." That is, all four islands belong to Japan. The 1644 map of Japan also includes all four islands.

Iturup Island. Photo: Vitold Muratov/wikimedia.org/CC BY-SA 3.0

The South Kuril Islands became part of the USSR after the end of World War II, and Russia became its successor. Before decision Kuril issue Japan refuses to sign a peace treaty with Russia.

Island Transfer Experts

“Economic cooperation in itself does not imply any concessions. Although Putin said that Russia was ready to return to the 1956 declaration, that is, this is the return of Shikotan and Habomai - and this, apparently, closes the issue altogether, ”military expert Alexander Khramchikhin said in an interview with Sobesednik.Ru.

Former parliamentarian Muneo Suzuki believes that Russia's economic cooperation with the transfer of the disputed islands to Japan makes sense, since Russia's energy resources could be combined with Japanese technologies for the development of the Far East.

Another opinion is shared by Shigeki Hakamada, professor emeritus at Aoyama University in Japan. According to him, after the annexation of Crimea, Putin received a high rating among the population. It is unlikely that he will agree to give up part of the territory of the Russian Federation received as a result of the Second World War, even in exchange for economic cooperation.

Given the tense situation in the Asia-Pacific region, Japan may reduce its ambitions and return to its demands from 1956. Then she claimed to transfer to her only two islands, moreover, for a while (30-50 years). By concluding a peace treaty with Russia, Japan will strengthen its position in the face of China, and Russia, in conditions of isolation, will receive a new partner.

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In mid-December, Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Japan. It is already clear in advance that the main content of the meeting, at least for sure Japanese side, will be the question of the Kuril Islands. As a result of World War II, the South Kuriles, occupied by Soviet troops in September 1945, were included in the USSR. But soon Japan demanded that four islands - Kunashir, Iturup, Shikotan and Habomai - be returned to her. At numerous negotiations, the USSR and Japan seemed to agree at first that only two smaller islands would go to Japan. But the agreement was blocked by the United States, threatening the Japanese that if a peace treaty with the USSR was signed, they would not return the island of Okinawa, where their military base was located.

Russians and Japanese began almost at the same time to develop these lands inhabited by the Ainu - the most ancient and indigenous population of the Kurils. Japan first heard about " northern territories"only in the 17th century, at about the same time, Russian explorers told about them in Russia. Russian sources first mention the Kuril Islands in 1646, and Japanese sources in 1635. Under Catherine II, signs with the inscription "Land of Russian possession" were even installed on them.

Later, a number of interstate agreements were signed (1855, 1875) regulating the rights to this territory - in particular, the Shimoda Treaty. In 1905, after the Russo-Japanese War, the islands finally became part of Japan, along with South Sakhalin. At present, both for the Russians and for the Japanese, the issue of the Kuriles is a matter of principle.

Since the collapse of the USSR, Russian public opinion has been especially keen on any potential loss of at least some piece of territory. The recent transfer of a plot of land to China did not cause much indignation, since China is consistently perceived as the main ally of our country, and these lands along the Amur channel meant little to the bulk of Russians. It is quite another matter - the Kuriles with their military base, blocking the entrance from Pacific Ocean in the Sea of ​​Okhotsk. They are perceived as the eastern outpost of Russia. According to a public opinion poll conducted by the Levada Center in May, 78% of Russians oppose the transfer of the islands to Japan Kuril ridge, and 71% of Russians are against the transfer of Japan only Habomai with Shikotan. To the fundamental question “What is more important: to conclude a peace treaty with Japan, having received Japanese loans and technologies, or to keep two deserted small islands? 56% also chose the second, and 21% the first. So what will be the fate of the Far Eastern islands?

Version 1

Russia will give Japan the entire Kuril ridge

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has already held 14 (!) meetings with Vladimir Putin. This year alone, the Prime Minister of Japan visited Russia twice, in Sochi and Vladivostok, and proposed a plan for settling the territorial issue there. In the case of the transfer of the islands, Japan promises development economic cooperation on 30 projects worth $16 billion in energy, medicine, agriculture, urban development, small and medium business growth. And also the construction of a gas pipeline to Japan from Sakhalin, the development of the industry of the Far East, cultural contacts and so on. Plus, it guarantees that in the event of the transfer of the Kuril Islands to it, a military contingent from the United States will not be deployed there.

According to the Japanese Prime Minister, Russia reacted positively to this plan. Japanese loans, technology, etc. may be suitable negotiating terms. Moreover, according to a poll by the Levada Center, only slightly more than half of Russians - 55% - believe that the level of trust in Putin will decrease if he decides to return the Kuriles to Japan. 9% believe that his rating will increase, and 23% - that it will remain at the current level.

Version 2

Russia to hand over Habomai and Shikotan to Japan

At the beginning of November, in Tokyo, negotiations with the leaders of the Japanese parliament were held by the chairman of the Federation Council of the Russian Federation, Valentina Matvienko. Their goal was clearly the desire to designate in advance Russian position. Matvienko unequivocally stated: “The Kuril Islands went to us following the results of the Second World War, which is recorded in international documents. And therefore the sovereignty of Russia over them is beyond doubt. There are things that Russia will never do. The limitation of Russian sovereignty over the Kuril Islands, and even more so their transfer to the jurisdiction of Japan, is one of them. This is the position of all our people, here we have a national consensus.”

On the other hand, why not assume that Matvienko could play the role of a "bad cop" in the classic scheme? So that the Japanese negotiators would then be more accommodating with the first person, who may well become a "good policeman" and agree on favorable terms. Even during his first presidential visit to Japan, Putin actually recognized the effectiveness of the 1956 Declaration, and in 2001 a Russian-Japanese statement was published recognizing its legal force.

Yes, and the Japanese seem to be ready for this. According to a survey conducted by the Mainichi Shimbun newspaper, 57% of the country's inhabitants do not demand the indispensable return of the entire Kuril ridge, but are satisfied with a more flexible solution to the "territorial issue".

Version 3

All the islands of the Kuril chain will remain Russian

Last week, the Ministry of Defense announced the deployment of Southern Kuriles coastal missile systems "Bal" and "Bastion" - to the great disappointment of the Japanese authorities, who obviously did not expect anything like this. It is unlikely that our military would have dragged the latest defense systems to such a distance, knowing that the islands are being prepared for transfer to the Japanese.

In addition, the islands have a large strategic importance. As long as they belong to Russia, no foreign submarine can enter the Sea of ​​Okhotsk unnoticed. If at least one island goes to Japan, then Russia will lose control over the straits and any warship will be able to enter the center of the Sea of ​​Okhotsk without Moscow's permission.

But the main guarantee that Moscow will never exchange the Kuriles is not missile systems at all. The fact is that Tokyo has territorial claims following the results of the Second World War not only to Moscow, but also to Seoul, and, most importantly, to Beijing. Therefore, even if we assume the unthinkable that the Russian authorities intend to fulfill Nikita Khrushchev’s idea and give the Japanese a couple of islands in order to improve relations, one must understand that the negative reaction of the Chinese and Koreans to this step will follow immediately. China, in response to such a geopolitical bandwagon, may present its territorial claims to Russia, and Zhongguo will find grounds for this. And Moscow is well aware of this. So the current political "round dances" around the Kuriles will not lead to serious consequences - most likely the parties simply let each other let off steam.

On the eve of the official trip of Russian President Vladimir Putin to Japan and his meeting with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, talks about the transfer of the Kuril Islands have resumed in both countries. In Russia, they talk about this with concern and indignation. In Japan, with a mixture of hope and disbelief. On the eve of his trip to Japan, Vladimir Putin gave an interview to Japanese journalists. Those several times directly asked him the question, does this trip mean that he will transfer the Kuril Islands to Japan? Will he start with two, or will he give up all four at once? Telegraph tried to understand from the president's answers what to expect from December 15th.

Putin immediately said that he hoped to establish friendly and trusting relations with Japan, but it was too early to raise the issue of transferring the islands. He cited China as an example, with which, according to the president, all territorial disputes have been settled, since trusting and friendly relations have just been established with China.

“We … with our friends in China, have been negotiating border issues for 40 years. And there were also issues related to certain territories. Today we characterize Russian-Chinese relations as a relationship of strategic partnership, even a special strategic partnership. We have never had such a level of trust with the Chinese People's Republic, like now. China is our largest trade and economic partner in the country dimension. We are implementing huge, multibillion-dollar joint projects,” the President of the Russian Federation gave an example.

At the same time, Putin noted that there are no such trusting and friendly relations with Japan yet. Japan has joined the sanctions policy, in addition, it has certain allied relations that prevent our countries from developing bilateral relations. “Japan imposed economic sanctions against us. Do you understand the difference or not? Why? As a result of events in Ukraine or in Syria? Where is Japan and Japanese-Russian relations, where is Syria and the events in Ukraine? This means that Japan has some kind of allied obligations. We treat this with respect, but we need to understand the extent of Japan's freedom and what Japan itself is ready to do," the president said.

Still, Putin does not reject the possibility of conducting joint economic activities on the disputed islands.: “As for the islands of the southern Kuril ridge, different options are possible here. We are ready to consider joint work on one island, and on two, and on three, and on four. Conditions are important…”

When asked by Japanese journalists under whose jurisdiction such activities would be carried out, Putin replied that they should not be in a hurry to think that under the Japanese. “But if this is the case from the first step, then the second step is not necessary, because the issue can be considered closed. We did not agree on this,” the president said.

According to the president, political steps, as well as large-scale joint economic activities and the resolution of humanitarian issues, can pave the way for trust in relations between the two countries, for example visa-free travel Japanese to the Kuriles to "cemeteries and native places."

Almost four dozen representatives of the scientific community and deputies of the Sakhalin region asked Putin not to give the Kuriles to the Japanese on December 6. In their open letter, they wrote: “The idea persistently imposed on Russian society and the leadership of our country by Japanese propaganda that territorial concessions or their promises in the future (such as recognition of “potential Japanese sovereignty” over allegedly “ disputed islands”) will lead to the fact that abundant “yen rains” will fall on our country, is a profound delusion ... In political terms, any concessions to Japanese territorial harassment or promises of such will necessarily lead to the activation of revanchist forces in Japan, acting, as you know, with claims not only per group southern islands, but also for the whole Kuril archipelago, as well as on southern half Sakhalin".

Two more political scientists, Anatoly Wasserman and Nurali Latypov, addressed Vladimir Putin with an open letter in 2013, where they proposed their own way to resolve the issue with the Kuril Islands: “We propose to grant Japan maximum rights to the South Kuril Islands. economic activity, but keep sovereignty for Russia.

In Japan, meanwhile, they believe that Putin will not transfer any islands to them. All his words are also just propaganda, but only for the Japanese for the sake of their economic support. “I think Putin has neither the desire nor the strength to resolve the territorial issue ... Putin demands dialogue and economic cooperation from Japan,” Shigeki Hakamada, a professor at the University of Niigata, said in an interview with The Asahi Shimbun newspaper (quoted by InoSMI). According to the professor, the outcome of the meeting will be only rosy messages that both sides can interpret in their favor.

Orientalist and political scientist Timur Dugarzhapov told Telegraph that now good time for cooperation between both countries. “In this regard, good opportunities are opening up for the president of our country to finally conclude a peace treaty. And also to expand economic cooperation,” the political scientist believes. In his opinion, Japan needs a connection with the continent, and Russia needs economic support. And if the negotiations are successful, then it doesn’t matter how many islands from the Kuril chain Russia will give to Japan, the main thing is “to jointly develop the territories of the Far East on the basis of good neighborly relations.” So Dzhugardzhapov will not be surprised if Vladimir Putin voices "rather radical proposals."

In September, after an interview with Russian President Vladimir Putin to Bloomberg, in which he stated that Russia was ready for a compromise on the Kuril Islands, Telegraph was already looking into the Kuril issue. One thing is clear, in Russia they are ambiguous about this, but for Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, a positive solution to this issue is fundamental. He promised to solve it before the expiration of his term in 2018.