Who is in the European Union

European Commission building. Graphics: Amio Cajander, cc-by-sa-2.0.

(European Union, EU) – English. European Union, German The Europäische Union is an association of a part of the states of Europe, designed to serve as an organizational form for the political and economic cooperation member countries. The motto of the EU is: "Consent in Diversity". Hymn: "Ode to Joy" It has a single currency in the territory of the countries that form the eurozone.

The impetus to create European Union was the period after World War II. The main idea was that countries with close trade and economic relations could cooperate without the threat of a military conflict.

The community was originally called European Coal and Steel Community(European Coal and Steel Community): it was established in 1951 with the signing of the Treaty of Paris.

It included 6 member countries:

• Belgium
• Italy
• Luxembourg
• Netherlands.

Already in 1958, the same composition began its work European Economic Community(European Economic Community). The union became the basis for a large-scale internal platform for conducting market relations, whose potential continued to realize itself until the international financial crisis of 2007-08.

In 1993, it was decided to rename the European Economic Community as by signing Maastricht Treaty in Maastricht, the Netherlands. This event can be called a key moment in the transition of the community from an economic trading platform to a full-fledged political union. At the same time this moment seen by many as the beginning of the end of the EU's success. As long as it was only about economic integration, the EU member states retained their political sovereignty, and Brussels had only limited competence. However, with the transition to a political union, the European Union began to actively take over the state functions of the participating countries.

Legitimacy of the EU

The European Union proclaims itself as an association based on the rule of law.

However, the legitimacy of the EU is being questioned by many.

Member countries

Current Members

For 2016, the European Union includes 28 countries, which together make up the largest association in European continent. Full list states along with the dates of accession to the EU is as follows:

• Belgium (since January 1, 1958)
• Bulgaria (since January 1, 2007)
• Croatia (since July 1, 2013)
• Denmark (since January 1, 1973)
• Germany (since January 1, 1958)
• Estonia (since May 1, 2004)
• Finland (since January 1, 1995)
• France (since January 1, 1958)
• (since January 1, 1981)
• Ireland (since January 1, 1973)
• Italy (since January 1, 1958)
• Latvia (since May 1, 2004)
• Lithuania (since May 1, 2004)
• Luxembourg (since January 1, 1958)
• (since May 1, 2004)
• Holland (since January 1, 1958)
• Austria (since January 1, 1995)
• Poland (since May 1, 2004)
• Portugal (since January 1, 1986)
• Romania (since January 1, 2007)
• Sweden (since January 1, 1995)
• Slovakia (since May 1, 2004)
• Slovenia (since May 1, 2004)
• Spain (since January 1, 1986)
• Czech Republic (since May 1, 2004)
• Hungary (since May 1, 2004)
• (since January 1, 1973) - in view of, for 2016 the state is located.
• Cyprus (since May 1, 2004)

European Union = Europe?

Countries considering leaving the EU

Until the summer of 2016, there was not a single case when any country left the ranks of the European Union. In 1985, Greenland left the European Economic Communities; it is important, however, to note that it was not about the withdrawal of the whole country (Greenland belongs to the Kingdom of Denmark), but rather the withdrawal of a separate territory.

Greenland

Greenland's accession to the EEC in 1973 was not the initiative of northern island, but pro-European Denmark. Since the majority of Danes voted in favor of joining the alliance, the vote of the Greenlanders, as inhabitants of the colony, did not have much power. For the Union, Greenland was of economic importance: northern territory boasts rich resources and a fishing industry.

But time passed. And with it came the realization that membership in the integration project would rather harm local interests (then (then Western) Germans were very active in catching fish near the coast of the island). On February 23, 1982, the people of Greenland voted to leave the EEC; already on January 1, 1985, this step was formalized legally.

• Detail:

Great Britain

• Detail:

Aspirations to secede from the Union in other countries

Currently, the debate on leaving the European Union is actively underway in the following countries:

• Austria

Political structure

The European Union consists of the following main governing bodies: Parliament, Council, Commission, Court. The activity of each of the bodies should theoretically be built on the rule of law, and each decision should be agreed with all EU member states on the principle of representative democracy.

However, at present, the EU has become a kind of constant violator of its own rules: for example, in the history of the eurozone, any of its members violated the Maastricht criteria at least once; moreover, the ECB - contrary to the express ban on subsidizing any member state of the eurozone - .

European Parliament

• Detail: .

The European Parliament () acts as the legislative body of the European Union. It was originally founded in 1952 as a meeting of the European Coal and Steel Community, and already in 1962 it became directly the European Parliament.

For 2016, it includes 751 deputies who are directly elected by EU citizens for a period of 5 years. The body mainly meets in Strasbourg (France), but meetings are also held in Brussels (Belgium) and Luxembourg.

The European Parliament has three main functions:

• Legislative: adoption of laws in cooperation with the Council and the European Commission, decision-making on European issues, ratification of international agreements, etc.;
• Supervisory: supervision of all EU bodies and elections of the President or President of the EU, approval financial reporting; control of the EU monetary policy, etc.;
• Financial: participation in the formation of the budget together with the council, approval of the long-term budget of the EU.

The Council is divided into two bodies: the European Council and the Council of the European Union (Council of Ministers).

The European Council acts as supreme body the government of the European Union, whose primary task is to determine the policy and priorities of the European Union.

The basis for the creation of the body was the unofficial summits of the leaders of the EU states (in particular, in 1974). In 1992, the body received official status, and in 2009 it became a full body of the EU.

The European Council consists of the heads of the EU member states, the President of the European Commission, the President of the European Council (leads the meeting of the Council) and the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Policy and Security. Meetings are held four times a year (every quarter) in Brussels (Belgium).

The Council of the European Union - also known as the Council of Ministers - advocates legislature EU along with the European Parliament. The body's primary task is to harmonize and adopt EU legislation.

It was first founded in 1958 as the Council of the European Economic Community.

It is composed of the national ministers of the EU member states, depending on the area of ​​legislation. For example, finance ministers meet to discuss issues related to the economy. Also, on the shoulders of the Council of Ministers lies the coordination of international legislative issues of the EU along with the European Parliament.

The Chairman of the Board is elected every 6 months among the members. The body meets in Brussels (Belgium) in the same building as the European Council.

As a reminder: the European Council is responsible for the political course of the EU, and the EU Council is responsible for the harmonization and approval of EU legislation!

Commission

The European Commission (EC) acts as the executive branch of the EU, responsible for implementing the decisions and regulations of the Council and the European Parliament, as well as monitoring compliance with EU law and overseeing the current affairs of the union.

European Commission building. Graphics: Amio Cajander, cc-by-sa-2.0.

It is the only EU body that can submit a bill to the Council and Parliament for consideration and voting. He also takes part in the formation of the EU budget and controls the spending of funds.

The Commission was established in 1958 and today consists of a panel of 28 EU commissioners. Each of them represents a participating country. As of 2017, the chairman is Jean-Claude Juncker.

Court of Justice of the European Union

The Court of Justice of the European Union is a judicial authority and acts as a guarantor of the application and observance of EU law in the territory of the member states. Considers both cases related to the violation of the rights of EU citizens, and cases of an international nature (disputes of EU member states, etc.).

It was first founded in 1952 as the Court of Justice of the European Coal and Steel Community, and accordingly changed its name to the Court of Justice of the European Communities in 1958. It took its current form in 2009 with the signing of the Lisbon Treaty.

The judiciary is composed of one judge from each participating country. It sits in Luxembourg.

Budget

According to the latest data, the budget of the European Union for 2017 is about 157.86 billion euros.

Based on analysts' forecasts, the article analyzes the state of the European Union as an organization in the short term. It is indicated that various options may take place here. The question of the implementation of any of them is probabilistic. Most experts believe that the EU will not fall apart, but its geopolitical status will not rise to a new level in world politics either. His condition will remain largely uncertain. At the same time, the dynamics of intra-organizational evolution and the main trends in global geopolitics also play a role. According to the author, along with the spread of radical nationalism within the EU, Brussels and the steps of the US-Russia-China trinity in the direction of creating a new balance of power have put Brussels in a difficult position. The weakening of democracy and transparency within the organization, combined with new global geopolitical trends, casts doubt on the EU's prospects. The article emphasizes that there are no signs that the European Union, which is still in a situation of such uncertainty, will enter a specific evolutionary line.

Specialists periodically conduct research on issues related to the future of such a large organization as the EU, which has a powerful potential. Their predictions are always interesting. At present, a paradoxical situation has arisen in the political environment of the world. On the one hand, the security problem has become even more urgent, on the other hand, the balance of forces that can realize this has not yet been formed. When considering the processes observed in the EU in this plane, there are a number of points that make one think. An analysis of the contradictions that an organization may face in 2017 is of interest. At the same time, the attention of experts is attracted by its possible transformation scenarios. We consider it necessary to dwell on this issue in more detail.

Growing interest in the EU: some reasons

With the advent of 2017, experts' forecasts about the fate of the European Union (EU) are published. This interest is not accidental. Its main reason has to do with important changes in global politics. The unexpected results of the US presidential elections, the strong geopolitical demarche of Russia, the rise of China to a new level, the successes achieved by developing countries (for example, Turkey) are having an impact on the political dynamics in the world.

As the second reason, experts point to the financial and economic crisis of 2008. This process has not died down. Countries such as Greece, Portugal and Spain have suffered the most from it. In general, the question arose of maintaining the single currency area of ​​the EU. The organization is still reeling from the crisis.

Another reason is related to the processes taking place within the EU itself. This includes political, economic, environmental, cultural and ideological issues. In particular, the EU was shaken up by an event called “Brexit”. Many experts fear that it will cause a "domino effect". The strong influence of Brexit on Europe is still being felt. In some countries, political tendencies like him have even begun to emerge. Experts have conducted research and made various predictions regarding this issue. Below we will dwell on them in more detail.

Finally, the problem of migration has become a serious factor for the EU. The rapid growth of the flow of refugees from the Middle East has put the organization in front of a difficult social, political, legal and humanitarian choice. It turned out that " Old light» is not quite ready to solve new problems. The issue is not only related to social security. True, even in this area, a disloyal attitude towards migrants from the powerful states of Europe was revealed. The main issue is related to the fact that where they talk about democracy and human rights, they could not defend them. Now in political circles developed countries Europe is not talking about the economic provision of people, the protection of their rights, but about punitive measures, expulsion, increased control. All this speaks of the vices of democracy, political, economic and cultural systems in Europe.

And this indicates that the EU has entered the stage of a systemic crisis. A number of experts specifically note the growth of instability in the near abroad of the organization, the observed risks, explaining this both by the flaw in the mechanisms of activity within the organization and by the fact that they are part of global risks (see, for example: Nikolay Kaveshnikov, Four Challenges for the European Union / RIAC, February 13, 2017). It should be recognized that these moments are connected with very topical and subtle geopolitical factors.

Impact on global geopolitics: in light of weakening trends

Here, first of all, it should be noted the inability of the EU to respond flexibly and adequately to the changing world. In this aspect, N. Kaveshnikov notes that “the world that Europeans would like to see is not becoming more secure, economically developed and sustainable” (see: previous source). On the contrary, the risks associated with security are increasing, the gulf between economically successful and unsuccessful countries is deepening, and the tendencies to use hard power and war in resolving foreign policy issues are sharply increasing.

These are, of course, very fundamental points, and the EU's unpreparedness for them is a serious matter, since the EU is one of the strongest centers from an economic, political, demographic and military point of view. The inability of the organization to respond to the observed serious global processes in the world can undoubtedly cause a crisis. Interestingly, an organization with an advanced management system turned out to be unprepared for fundamental innovations. Apparently, one feature played a role here, which experts also talk about.

We mean the gravitation of the West in last years to double standards. Brussels and Washington have given preference in various regions of the world not to a policy based on justice, but to a policy of serving special geopolitical interests. In one region the aggressor was punished, in another he was patronized. Libya, Syria, Egypt, Iraq, Afghanistan were hit, and Armenia was defended. Muammar Gaddafi, Saddam Hussein were punished, while Sargsyan and Kocharyan were protected. They were even called democrats. Although the hands of the Sargsyans and Kocharyans are even more stained with blood.

It turns out that the EU found itself face to face with the consequences of its erroneous policies pursued over the years. Interestingly, Brussels is not fully aware of this. And this makes uncertain the ability of the organization to get rid of the difficulties. This is only part of the processes taking place within the organization. Experts note the importance of other factors in this context.

For example, R. Mullerson, president of the Geneva International Law Institute, in an article on the fate of the EU, argues that the economic downturn has become one of the leading problems for the organization. Economic differences between the countries of North, South and of Eastern Europe affect the course of processes. The not entirely efficient economic system of the countries of Southern Europe, their lack of stability in global competition are serious challenges (see: Rein Mullerson. European Union: to be or not to be? / Valdai, February 17, 2017). Difficulties in the management of the eurozone, debt collection, have their source mainly economic forces systemic nature.

Another problem is related to the noted political and ideological environment caused by the migration crisis. Experts believe that the migration crisis has increased radical sentiment in a number of EU countries. This led to the spread of populism and Euroscepticism in politics, the growth of distrust among the population in the traditional political system (see: Nikolai Kaveshnikov, Four Challenges for the European Union / RIAC, February 13, 2017). As a result, the electorate turns away from the forces and parties that defend the existing system.

For example, on December 4, 2016, in the presidential elections in Austria, the gap between the representative of the right-wing radicals, the Eurosceptic, the politician of the anti-Muslim front, Norbert Hofer, and the elected president, Alexander van der Vellen, was very small.

We can observe the same picture in other EU countries, say, in Holland, France, Germany or Italy. In these states, surprises in this year's elections are not ruled out.

Experts are convinced that Euroscepticism has taken root in the EU. Doctor of Historical Sciences V.Ya. Schweitzer notes that the term "Euroscepticism" has taken a firm place in the political lexicon of modern Europe (see: Vladimir Schweitzer, Anton Tarshin. European Union: critics and apologists / " Modern Europe”, No. 1 (67), 2016, pp. 16-25). In fact, the political trend that this term expresses is beginning to play an increasingly serious role on the political scene of today's Europe. And this should have appropriate political and ideological consequences.

Among them special place occupies a wide distribution in Europe of radical nationalism, isolationism and Islamophobia. These trends generally have a negative impact on the integration process in Europe, at the same time creating conditions for deepening other contradictions.

From this, the following two conclusions can be drawn. Firstly, politic system Europe is losing stability. Secondly, there is an urgent need for greater transparency in the functioning of the EU. The deepening of the first process will necessarily lead to a political crisis in the organization. First of all, systemic problems will deepen. In this regard, experts emphasize the following two factors. The first of these is related to the institutional crisis (see: Rein Mullerson. European Union: to be or not to be? / Valdai, February 17, 2017). The essence of this crisis lies in the fact that the peoples who believed the promises of the leaders of the six countries that laid the foundations of the EU in 1957 to create a union unprecedented in history do not want the arrival of a new many-headed dragon (see: previous source). The faith of Europeans in the prospects for integration has been substantially undermined. They are increasingly focused on national interests. This state of affairs automatically undermines the institutions of the EU.

The second factor is rooted in the euro crisis. Many member countries want to end sacrificing their sovereignty. With this, the rejection of the euro is connected. The British focused on this issue. Now they are talking about the same in France, Austria, Holland. At the same time, experts pay attention to another important aspect of the issue. It is related to the fact that states different levels economic development, traditions and way of life have a single currency. The peaceful southern peoples do not want to have a harsh Protestant spirit. The support of many European institutions for Germany's repressive steps against Greece caused some discontent. Among them, the countries of Central and Eastern Europe are the most dissatisfied. The heads of these states, delighted with the process of transition from the socialist camp to the EU, are sometimes greeted with whistles in the European Parliament. In 2009, Czech President Vaclav Klaus faced this (see: previous source).

The Crisis of Liberal Democracy: in the Context of Transparency and Democracy

The provisions noted above substantiate the second conclusion - the need for a more transparent activity of the EU, since in a period when the faith of the peoples is undermined, the transparency of the governing bodies, the executive bodies is of great importance. It is essential that the public has a clear understanding of the work of the supranational structures of the EU. The relevance of this issue in social, political aspects, in terms of security and defense has increased significantly. But so far, a level that would suit the population has not been reached in these areas. For example, the French do not have a precise position on the extent to which EU structures create conditions for sovereignty. Taking advantage of this factor, the right-wing politician Marine Le Pen warns that in case of any moments that undermine the sovereignty of France, the country will immediately withdraw from the organization.

Politicians in Germany, Holland, Italy and Austria say the same. In this context, they bring to the fore mainly the need to provide citizens with information, mainly on migration policy. But Brussels cannot become more transparent on this issue. In particular, the German authorities do not want to deal harshly with migrants at the request of the radical right. Such moments give new shades of contradictions within the EU.

Thus, the possibility of the EU losing its political stability, serious difficulties in ensuring transparency do not give grounds for optimistic forecasts regarding the future of the organization. Experts write that centrifugal tendencies will dominate. The likelihood of such a scenario occurring is high. In addition to them, two other factors can be cited. This is a crisis of liberal democracy in the world and a change in the poles of power (see: previous source).

The roots of the crisis of the ideas of liberal democracy go back to the contradictions between liberalism and democracy. Free markets and democracy not only stimulate mutual development, but also increase competition among themselves, since the freedom of the market creates conditions for uneven development. And this means the weakness of democracy. Cambridge University economist HJ Chang wrote that "the free market and democracy are not natural partners" (see: previous source).

True, he had in mind the "uncontrolled market", and politicians such as Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher preferred just such a market. Modern neoliberals are of the same opinion. Thus, economic unevenness breeds political unevenness. In other words, democracy leads to universal equality, and the free market leads to unevenness. As a result, these two factors, mutually balancing each other, excessively prevent development. All this made it possible to call a policy that does not suit the liberal elite in Europe populism. But even Ralf Dahrendorf said that "populism is simple, but democracy is complex." In this sense, what is populism for one may be democracy for another.

Populists, in turn, call liberals "stubborn members of the elite." They are accused of being away from ordinary people. The low awareness of this mass, the low cultural level is emphasized. For example, this is how Hillary Clinton described the electorate of Donald Trump in America during the last election campaign. Experts say that the same feature was observed during Brexit.

It is clear that the crisis of liberal democracy in the West has gone too far. This trend is especially affected by the crisis of world power. Zbigniew Brzezinski wrote about this in detail (see: Zbigniew Brzezinski. How To Address Strategic Insecurity In A Turbulent Age / The Huffington Post, January 3, 2017). This is manifested in the fact that the balance of power, formed after the Second World War, is broken, new threats have appeared, as a result of which a global crisis of power has arisen. A new polarization of geopolitical influence is taking place.

One scenario: the balance of power and the EU

The influence of Russia and China has increased in world politics. Now the probability of forming a world order pleasing to the West is too low. With this in mind, Z. Brzezinski writes about the emergence of a serious need for US-Russia-China cooperation (see: previous source).

But this is hardly possible, because there is a process of deepening the polarization of world power, which was mentioned above. The West knows that there can be alternatives in history. Not everything can happen according to their standards.

In this context, one should not forget that democracy arose and developed within the framework of one multinational state. Transforming it into a system international relations- the process is complex. Experts note that the term closest to this concept in the international arena is “balance of power” (see: Rein Mullerson. European Union: To Be or Not To Be? / Valdai, February 17, 2017). Therefore, in order to apply this concept, the EU must choose the path of federalization. The elite strive for it, but the Europeans do not accept it. Thus, a serious contradiction arises - the EU cannot find a balance between the model of integration and democratization.

There are opinions that the world is transforming into a new balance of power. And there is no place for the EU in sight. Mostly they talk about the USA, Russia and China. But this situation does not mean expressing a concrete opinion about the collapse of the EU project. It is possible that the countries of Europe will find the strength within themselves and develop a model of integration in accordance with the requirements of the 21st century.

Thus, at the end of 2016 - beginning of 2017, the EU is characterized by the following three features. First, it is a violation of the integrity of the EU. Centrifugal factors within the various states within the organization have reached a new level. An example is Brexit. At the same time, we are talking about the possibility of "Frexit", etc. Secondly, the status quo that has developed over the years in relations between Europe and the United States is changing. This aspect has become even more relevant with the advent of D. Trump. Thirdly, the migration balance on the continent is changing dramatically. It is expected that its socio-political consequences could be much more severe.

Against the background of these signs, the issue of security and a number of events that took place in Europe in 2016 again actualized. The Paris terror, the New Year's violence in Cologne, the terrorist attack in Nice in the summer, the terrorist attack in Berlin shocked Europe. In response, EU officials tossed the idea of ​​creating a single European army. But in its implementation, they still cannot overcome the obstacles caused by the numerous problems noted by us above.

And through the prism of global geopolitical dynamics, “Russia should be seen as a neighbor of Europe”, but this neighbor will never accept European values ​​(see: Walter Russell Mead, “Washington and Brussels: Rethinking Relations with Moscow?”, in Aldo Ferrari (ed. ), Putin's Russia: Really Back? (Milan, Ledi Publishing for ISPI, 2016), p. 46). This means that, together with China, Russia is “developing an alternative to the Western understanding of world governance” (see: Bobo Lo, Frontiers New and Old: Russia's Policy in Central Asia, IFRI Russia / NIS Centre, Russie. Nei. Visions No. 82, January 2015, p. 9).

All this is taken into account in the EU global strategy adopted on June 28, 2016. It specifically notes that “peace and stability are no longer real”, but “the EU will maintain its integrity” (see: Shared Vision, Common Action: A Stronger Europe. A Global Strategy for the European Union's Foreign and Security Policy, June 2016 , p. 33).

Conclusion

It can be seen from the above analysis that at this stage the real scenario for the European Union is to maintain integrity. Uncertainty in the fate of the EU is introduced both by intra-organizational political, financial, economic, and managerial crises, as well as by the development at the global level of alternative models of the world order. Experts do not consider the scenario of its rapid development. The main issue is related to finding ways to save the organization. The entry of the "Old World" into 2017 with such realities could open the way for major changes in world politics in general.

The reason why a powerful organization, which had high hopes from its inception, found itself in such a situation is both geopolitical events taking place on a global scale and various kinds of trends within the EU. In other words, the conclusions drawn are not accidental. For many years now major states West are building their internal and foreign policy in accordance with double standards. And it was bound to call after a certain time Negative consequences. This is exactly what we are seeing now. In this context, the following two conclusions are important.

First, in the EU, those who prefer the national radical political course are gaining more and more public support. This process can politically split Europe. Thus, revolutionary processes are possible after the UK leaves the EU. Some European experts blame the United States for these processes. This makes the second conclusion important for the EU.

Secondly, the US-Russia-China cooperation format can put the EU in a difficult position on the scale of world politics. Brussels may take a backseat. If the United States continues its course of maintaining Europe's dependence on America, then we will again see the pressure of the latter on Germany and France. This means that interesting developments may occur in this direction in the coming years.

All this indicates that, despite all the options, the European Union does not have a specific development scenario, even in the short term. Assumptions indicate the presence of uncertainty.

Kamal Adigozalov

The population of the EU-28 exceeded 510 million people

In July 2016, the Statistical Committee of the European Union (Eurostat) presented the first demographic results for 2015, based on data from the national statistical offices of the 28 member countries of the Union.

According to a preliminary estimate by Eurostat, the total population of the European Union (EU-28) at the beginning of 2016 was 510.1 million people. A steady growth trend, although of varying intensity, has been maintained for more than half a century. Compared to 1960, the beginning of the period for which data are collected, the population of the EU-28 has increased by 103.3 million people, or 25.4% (Figure 1). Despite a steady growth trend in the absolute population of the EU-28, its share in the total world population has been steadily declining, falling from 13.5% in 1960 to 6.9% in 2015 (at mid-year).

Currently, the cumulative population of the EU-28 is 2.7 times less population the largest country in the world by this indicator - China (1376 million people in mid-2015, according to the UN) and 2.6 times less than the population of India (1311). At the same time, it is 1.6 times the population of the third most populous country in the world - the United States (321.8), 3.5 times the population of Russia (146.4), 4 times the population of Japan (126.6 million people).

The population density in the EU-28 is about 116 people per 1 square kilometer(2013 estimate). This is 2.2 times higher than in the whole world (53.1), 3.6 times higher than in the USA (32.2), noticeably higher than in Russia (8.4), Canada (3. 5) and Australia (3.0), but at the same time several times lower than in South Korea (501), India (381) and Japan (337) and somewhat less than in China (141).

Figure 1. Population of the European Union (EU-28), at the beginning of 1960-2016, millions of people and % of the world population

Sources: Eurostat. Population change – Demographic balance and crude rates at national level (Last update 08/04/2016, Extracted on 08/12/16); United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, DVD Edition. POP/DB/WPP/Rev.2015/POP/F01-1.

More than half of the population of the European Union (53.9% of the total population of the EU-28 at the beginning of 2016) is concentrated in the four most populous countries - Germany (16.1%), France (3.1%), the UK (12.8 %) and Italy (11.9%). In terms of population, Spain (9.1%) and Poland (7.4%) also adjoin them, and the proportion of the population of each of the other member countries of the union does not reach 4% (Fig. 2).

Over the past decade (2006-2016), the population of the EU-28 has increased by 13.6 million people, or 2.7%. During this time, the share of Germany (by 0.5 percentage points), Romania (0.4), Poland (0.2), Bulgaria, Hungary, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania and Portugal (0.1) decreased in its composition. At the same time, the share of the population of Great Britain (by 0.6 percentage points), France (0.3), Spain and Italy (0.2), Belgium, Ireland and Sweden (by 0.1 percentage points each) increased.

Figure 2. Population of the EU-28 countries as of January 1, 2006 and 2016, million people

Source

The population of the European Union as a whole continues to grow, despite a long-term slowdown in growth rates (Figure 3).

If in the first half of the 1960s the annual increase was about 3.5 million people (or about 8‰), and during the period of mass repatriation from former colonies, primarily France, exceeded 4 million people (10‰), then in 1983-1984 it dropped to 1 million people or less (2‰). After a recovery in the second half of the 1980s and early 1990s, the annual population growth of the EU-28 fell back below 1 million in the mid-1990s (to 700,000 or 1.4‰ in 1997).

European Union population growth accelerated again in the late 1990s, but especially rapidly from 2002 onward, after the 2000 round of population data were updated and adjusted accordingly. This trend was not sustainable, but, nevertheless, the growth rate, which was up to 4% per year or more in 2002-2007, exceeded the level of the 1980-1990s. Largest value population growth in the EU-28 reached 2043 thousand people in 2004 (4.1‰). The decelerating trend in population growth resumed in 2008, when the EU-28 population growth fell to 1,793 thousand people (3.5‰). In 2009-2012, its value did not reach 1.3 million people (no more than 2.5‰). In 2013, the downward trend in growth was reversed by population adjustments based on the results of population censuses in some countries (most of all in Italy - by almost 1 million people). As a result, the population of the EU-28 increased by 1777 in 2013 thousand people, or by 3.5‰. In 2014, population growth again decreased (2.3‰), and in 2015 it increased (3.5%). Overall, the population growth rate remains higher than in the second half of the 1990s.

Figure 3. Population growth in the European Union (EU-28),1960-2015, thousand people and per 1000 permanent population

Source: Eurostat. Population change – Demographic balance and crude rates at national level (Last update 04.08.16, Extracted on 12.08.16)

The intensity of population growth differs markedly across the countries of the European Union. During 2015, the population increased in 17 of the 28 countries, while it decreased in 11 (Figure 4).

Particularly fast, as in previous years, was the growth of the population of Luxembourg, where, under small numbers population - based many of the institutions of the European Community. In 2014, the total increase in the population of Luxembourg was 23.9‰, in 2015 - 23.3‰. A significant increase in population in 2015 was also noted in Austria (14.4‰), Germany, Sweden and Malta (11-12‰).

The United Kingdom, Denmark, Belgium and Ireland also have a fairly high population growth (6-9‰ in 2015). In other countries, population growth was more moderate (less than 5‰).

Among countries with a decreasing population, Lithuania (-11.3‰ in 2015) is still distinguished by the intensity of population decline, slightly lower than the intensity of population decline in Latvia (-8.7‰) and Croatia (-8.2‰). At the other end of the range is Spain with a slight population decline (-0.2‰). The population decline in this country has been observed for the fourth year already, it was the largest in 2013 (-4.6‰). Previously, it increased quite rapidly (16-20‰ per year in 2002-2007).

In addition to Lithuania, Latvia and Croatia, the group of countries with declining population has for many years included Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Poland. Estonia, by contrast, left this group in 2015. In Poland, there was a slight increase in 2008-2010 and zero growth in 2011-2012, and since 2013 a slight decline in the population has resumed.

The decline in population in other countries has been noted only in recent years: in Spain, as already mentioned, since 2012, in Portugal since 2010, in Greece since 2011, in Italy in 2015.

At the same time, in Germany, which had repeatedly recorded population decline (including in 2003-2010), in 2011-2015 there was an increasing increase in population (from 1.3‰ in 2011 to 11.8‰ in 2015).

In absolute terms, the most significant population growth in 2015 was in Germany (by 964 thousand people), Great Britain (574), France (269), Austria (124), Sweden (104), and in the rest it did not reach 90 thousand people.

The most significant absolute population decline was observed in Italy (-130 thousand people), Romania (-111), Greece (-64) and Bulgaria (-48 thousand people). In other countries, it amounted to less than 40 thousand people.

Figure 4. Increase (decrease) in the population of the countries of the European Union for 2014 and 2015, per 1000 permanent population

Source: Eurostat. Population change – Demographic balance and crude rates at national level (Last update 04.08.16, Extracted on 12.08.16)

Due to the tense and sometimes unpredictable geopolitical situation in the world, it can be expected that in 2017 the European Union will lose several member states. Already in March of this year, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Theresa May plans to begin the process of leaving the EU.

According to the results of the referendum held in June 2016, 52% of British citizens voted for the exit from the European Union and the independence of the UK. This year, the country's government plans to start an active phase of leaving the EU. In this case, the country could lose up to 60 billion euros.

Among other things, in 2017 the UK may hold a referendum on the secession of Scotland. It should be noted that the vast majority of the Scots have spoken out against leaving the EU and are now demanding access to the European market.

In addition to the British, many French citizens doubt the wisdom of continuing EU membership. The National Front Party, led by Marine Le Pen, requires the assignment of France a special status in the European Union. Otherwise, Le Pen will seek a referendum on the union's exit.

“If we are in power, our goal will be to negotiate with the European Commission on granting France a special status, following the example of the UK, but in a more detailed version, which will restore financial and economic sovereignty or even resolve the migration issue.If such status is not granted, we propose to the French to hold a referendum on France's exit from the EU.", - said earlier the niece of party leader Marine Le Pen.

Le Pen did not stop at the leadership of one of the state parties. In the spring of this year, she plans to run for the presidency of the country. It is assumed that if the head of the far-right party wins, France will leave the euro zone, restrict entry for migrants from the Middle East and normalize relations with the Russian Federation.

The opposition of the Netherlands does not sleep either. In March 2017, parliamentary elections will be held in the country, in which the opposition Freedom Party will take part. The leader of the Euroskeptics is Geert Wilders who, if he wins, also plans to hold a referendum on the independence of the Netherlands.

“We need to resolve the issue of EU membership as soon as possible. Brussels should not dictate with whom we have economic and political relations. Restoring ties with Russia is a priority for the traditionally trading country that the Netherlands has always been.”, Wilders told the Russian media.

In addition, the deputy is not satisfied with the migration policy of the European Union, which, in his opinion, has a negative impact on the national security of the country.

Meanwhile, in sunny Italy, the opposition party has yet to compete for parliamentary seats. Recall that last year, citizens have already supported the opposition during the constitutional referendum, after which the country's prime minister resigned. Early parliamentary elections will be held this summer. Note that in Italy, two parties are opposed to the current order. Five Star Movement led by Beppe Grillo and the Northern League party, led by Matteo Salvini, is united by the desire to establish relations favorable for cooperation with the Russian Federation.

“Our party will hold a referendum on leaving the euro area, and I am sure that we will win. The country needs to return to the national currency", - says the representative of the party "League of the North" Gianluca Savoini.

Moreover, the Italian opposition predicts the collapse of the European Union.

“Italy's exit from the eurozone will weaken the European Union. He will have no choice but to reform the system and sign a new treaty between the participating states. Otherwise, the union will fall apart." , - sayseconomist Jacques Sapir .

The mood of euroscepticism is not alien to the citizens of Austria. On December 4, a candidate from the opposition Freedom Party took part in the elections for the presidency of the country Norbert Hofer .

“We will be forced to ask the Austrians if they want to be part of the EU if, during the year, the course is directed towards centralization instead of taking into account the values ​​of the European Union”, he told the media earlier.

It becomes obvious that dissatisfaction with the policy pursued by Brussels in Europe is only growing. And if earlier such sentiments could be noted only at the local level, now Euroscepticism is acquiring much more impressive proportions.