Air transportation market research. Modern Trends in the Development of the World Air Cargo Market Gurieva, Madina Taymurazovna

22% of the world's air traffic is concentrated on just 300 routes. Each of them transports more than 1 million passengers annually. Another 69% of all world air transportation is concentrated on routes with a volume of about 100 thousand passengers. in year. This data is provided by Amadeus based on the analysis of data from the Amadeus Air Traffic Travel Intelligence program.

From 2011 to 2012, the volume of world passenger traffic increased by 5%. Asia has become the fastest growing and most competitive air travel market. The number of passengers served in this region increased by 9% over the year; the region follows Asia in terms of growth Latin America, where passenger traffic increased by 6% over the year (Table 1).

However, despite the growth of the market, air transportation continues to concentrate on a certain number of destinations. 22% of the world's air traffic is concentrated on just 300 routes, and the 1000 most popular routes provide 40% of all world air traffic. However, at the same time, 35% of air transportation in Europe and North America is provided by low-intensity routes with flows of less than 100,000 passengers. in year.

The most intensive routes in terms of passenger traffic were routes within Asia - this region is home to seven out of ten of all world intensive destinations. The Jeju-Seoul route (South Korea) remains the most popular. The list of the most intensive routes for 2012 included many of the destinations marked a year earlier, although there were some changes. For example, the Beijing-Shanghai (China) route has moved from 7th to 4th place over the year. And the Asian route Sapporo-Tokyo (Japan) gave way to the second place to the South American route Rio de Janeiro-Sao Paulo. A newcomer to the list of the ten most intensive routes was the Okinawa-Tokyo route, which ranked 9th (Table 2). In Asia, 85% of air traffic is concentrated on intensive routes, where more than 100,000 passengers are transported. in year.

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3.1. Trends in the global development of air travel

The current position and future of the global air transportation market is connected with the formation of alliances of airlines based on a circle of airports, on the basis of which the transportation network is built and which will ensure the growth of traffic, based in them airlines - members of the alliance. Competition in the global air travel market is a struggle between alliances of airlines and major hub airports to capture as much of the consumer market as possible. There are two trends in the development of air transportation in the world now: 1) the point-to-point system, which can be seen in the example of the United States, involves direct flights between the point of departure and the point of destination; 2) European countries are closer to the hub-and-spoke scheme (literally - knot and spoke), which means that the passenger does not fly directly to the destination, but with a transfer at the hub airport. At the same time, the schedule must be drawn up so that the passenger can transfer to the connected flight as soon as possible. That is, hub airports collect passenger flows from a large number of cities and redistribute them to connected flights. The hub airport should also develop a special technology for passenger service and baggage handling, which ensures the highest possible level of passenger service. These tendencies leave their mark on the formation of the policy of the leading aircraft-building corporations: the American company "Boeing" and the Western European aircraft-building alliance "Airbus". The Americans proceed from the fact that the future belongs to high-speed, highly economical liners of medium passenger capacity, which allow organizing a non-stop air traffic between many cities in the world, bypassing major airports, as they are often overloaded. Europeans are betting on the A-380 superliner, which carries more than 500 passengers per flight with the highest level of comfort. Such aircraft can only be received major airports world, from where passengers will have to travel to their final destination on smaller planes. Based on these prerequisites, leading aircraft manufacturing companies form product lines aircraft(Sun). Thus, the Boeing company is finishing flight tests and is preparing for mass production the 787 model, capable of transporting from 200 to 300 people for a record 16,000 km. And Airbus showed airlines the super-capacity double-deck A380, capable of carrying up to 550 people. At the same time, the European manufacturer does not discount the demand for ultra-long-range aircraft, therefore, in defiance of Boeing and its 787 model, it creates a competing A350 aircraft. It is impossible to expect that liners of medium passenger capacity (according to the American model) will fly to every airport, based on the capabilities of airports and the availability of passenger traffic. Most likely, such aircraft will be able to deliver passengers to regional airports, from which passengers, depending on the distance, will fly to their final destination by aircraft. local airlines or delivered by road (in the conditions of the Russian Federation in the presence of roads). Thus, in both directions of development, there remains a need for hub airports, the capacity and characteristics of which depend on the passenger flow and the type of airport used. aviation technology. Do not forget that even with the American model in the US itself, the world's largest hub airports are successfully operating, for example, Atlanta, Chicago, Los Angeles, Newark, Houston and others with a passenger flow of several tens of millions of people. per year each.

3.2. Concepts of a hub airport, transit and transfer passengers

Recently, the issue of the possibility and necessity of creating hub airports in the Russian Federation and the Moscow aviation hub has been repeatedly discussed in the press and on television. A hub airport is, in fact, a transit and interchange airport. Transportation through the largest foreign hubs is organized according to the principle of "hubs" and "spokes". At the beginning, at the hub airport, passengers gather along mainline, interregional and intercontinental routes, then these passengers depart by regional and local routes (spokes) to endpoints destinations where it is unprofitable for a mainline carrier to fly. Aviation statistics take into account two types of transit passengers: direct transit passengers and transfer passengers. The first ones are passengers of a flight that makes a temporary stop at the airport, for example, to refuel the aircraft carrying them or to board (disembark) part of the passengers. In this case, the flight number does not change, although the aircraft can be replaced. In this case, the carrier must pay the airport for servicing passengers who spend their stopover time at the terminal. A transfer passenger is a passenger who makes a transfer at a given airport from a flight of one airline to another flight of the same or another airline ("transfer"). Such a passenger may have a single transportation document valid for the entire route, but the flight numbers necessarily differ. For the service of this passenger, they pay twice: for the flight on which he arrived, and the flight on which he will depart. Therefore, from the point of view of the economy of the airport, a single stay at the airport transfer passenger gives the effect of serving two passengers. And if this is a passenger of international flights, then in the jargon of aviators he is called a "fat passenger." Naturally, this is the most desired passenger at the airport, and there is a fierce competition between airports to attract him and the same cargo. A transfer passenger, often arriving in Moscow from the cities of Western Europe, the USA, Southeast Asian countries, will inevitably work for the economy not only of the airport, but also of the city, using the services of urban infrastructure at the airport and outside it. Along with this, it is a kind of passenger. Unlike the local, who will arrive at the final destination of his journey in any case, the transfer almost always has a choice. Therefore, he will fly to Moscow only if the transfer in Moscow can be done faster and more conveniently than at airports in other cities. The airport business is, first of all, a tough competition for attracting this particular category of passengers. The specificity of this competition extends to cities with several airports. In this case, the competitiveness of the air hub as a whole becomes decisive. It is in the interest of this external competitiveness to suppress internal competition between the airports of the hub, as it worsens the economic performance of the hub as a whole. As a rule, in this case, specialization of airports is carried out and they are managed by a single management company (London, Paris, New York, Washington, Milan). Unfortunately, the disunity of the operation of UIA airports does not stimulate an increase in the number of transfer passengers. If, for example, a passenger flew from Khabarovsk to Domodedovo airport and he needs to fly to Adler from Vnukovo airport, then this passenger is no longer needed by Domodedovo airport from the moment of arrival and is not needed by Vnukovo airport until the moment the passenger arrives at Vnukovo. The passenger with his luggage is nobody's. Domodedovo airport will not take care of the future passenger of Vnukovo airport and vice versa. Therefore, at the slightest opportunity, the passenger tries not to be a "transfer", but to use, if possible, direct flights without transfers. For the same reason, Moscow annually loses "its" transfer passengers not only in Russia (Krasnoyarsk, Yekaterinburg, St. Petersburg, Samara organized direct flights to the cities of the South and West of Russia, the CIS, some cities of Western Europe, bypassing Moscow), but also " transferring them and their income to Kiev, Tashkent, Helsinki, Warsaw, Prague, Budapest, etc. The situation may change when the transfer of an air passenger will be carried out in one airport terminal in the presence of "connecting" waves of flights and appropriate baggage handling. To be able to estimate the share of transfer air passengers at some major foreign airports, we will present some data. The number of transfer passengers at the airports of Frankfurt, Amsterdam, Copenhagen is more than 40% of the number of passengers on regular flights, in Brussels and Heathrow more than 30%. Despite the disunity in the work of UIA airports, in recent years there has been a certain positive trend in the struggle for passenger transfer. So, for example, according to the data provided by Domodedovo Airport, the share of transfer passengers at this airport is constantly increasing. It should be noted that transfer passengers can only be on regular lines, both international and domestic. The passenger knows in advance which flight and when he should fly further from the transfer airport, but this requires the formation of a hub airport with connecting waves and appropriate infrastructure. The transfer passenger, as a rule, has nothing to do with the transfer country. Serving such a passenger at a transfer airport is an exportable service. The countries of the Middle East are the most successful in the field of export of air transport services. Figure 3.1 shows that per $1 million of gross domestic product (GDP), the UAE attracts 93.0 and Qatar 88.4 transfer passengers. This is followed by the countries of the Asia-Pacific region - Singapore and Hong Kong.

Fig.3.1. International transfer passenger traffic for $ 1 million GDP, pass.

In European countries, these figures are lower and range from 10 to 20 passengers. Russia practically does not use this resource. Russia's figures are 20-30 times lower than those of the Asian countries shown in the diagram. In a number of countries, the number of international transfer passengers is comparable to that of local (start/end) passengers, and Qatar is the only country in the world with more transfer passengers than start/end. In the UAE, the Netherlands and Singapore, there is 1 transfer per 2 start/end passengers. Russia is 3-4 times inferior to European countries, serving only 1 transfer per 10 initial / final passengers, which can be seen in Fig. 3.2.

Fig.3.2. International transfer passenger traffic per 100 initial/end passengers, pers.

Many countries are looking to get a stable additional income from transfer passengers. For example, in Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Hong Kong, Dubai and other cities there are special programs, for example, "Singapore Stopover Holidays". Under these programs, visa requirements are simplified, these programs include visits to many tourist attractions.

3.3. Requirements for a hub airport

The attractiveness of an airport as a hub is determined by the following factors: geopolitical position (capital, center of the economic region); ? the development of its infrastructure (airfield, passenger and cargo terminal, transport links, air traffic control system); ? capacity and development of the domestic and international transportation market; ? the level of passenger and cargo service at the airport. Along with this, there are several criteria that determine the readiness of the airport to perform the functions of a hub: ? The ability to organize the required number of connections and the absence of restrictions for their growth. In large foreign hubs, the average number of arriving flights, from which you can transfer to a departing flight at a convenient time, ranges from 50-70 units. per hour (Frankfurt, Amsterdam) up to 20-30 units. (Helsinki, Vienna). The task of the hub is to concentrate incoming air traffic flows and redistribute them to outgoing directions by organizing the so-called "connecting waves". ? The capacity of the passenger and cargo terminals and the airport as a whole, the ability to provide and guarantee a high level of service for airlines and air passengers in the long term. The air terminal complex largely determines the face of the airport, the comfort and level of service for air passengers. To airport terminals international airports there are certain requirements. ? The ability to ensure the transfer time in accordance with the requirements of the carrier and global practice by organizing connecting waves and strict adherence to the schedule. Optimal connection time is achieved due to the concentration of incoming and outgoing international and domestic passenger traffic in a single terminal complex and the availability of an appropriate baggage handling system. According to world practice, the time required for transit transfer at the airport, is 30-60 minutes (Vienna, Frankfurt, Amsterdam), and when performing customs procedures up to 2-3 hours (USA). The organization of a "nodal" airport is based, first of all, on the creation of a special airport service technology aimed at the simultaneous reception and departure of the maximum number of passengers, giving them the opportunity to fly to the maximum number of new destinations in the shortest possible time, provided that there is a sufficiently large volume of transportation of transfer passengers making transfer at this airport, who are attracted, among other things, by the quality of airport service. ? The possibility of developing the airport, because without this it has no prospects. The most important airport complex is the airfield complex. Airfield area, number and location of runways, distance from the airfield to settlements and reservoirs, the presence or absence of land reserves for the development of the airfield impose restrictions on the throughput and the possibility of developing the entire airport. As a rule, hub airports have two or more independent runways, which makes it possible to more effectively use the opportunities to increase passenger traffic. Runway capacity issues have already been encountered at a number of primary hub airports. The ability to build new runways is severely limited by environmental laws and the lack of appropriate reserved areas. In this situation, expanding the capacity of other airport facilities, such as passenger terminals and others, becomes meaningless. Leading airports such as Heathrow (London), Orly, Charles de Gaulle (Paris), Amsterdam, Frankfurt, Narita (Tokyo) and others have faced such problems. there will be more of them, they can most successfully cope with the growing needs of the market, capturing an increasing part of it. Being one of the main areas affecting flight safety, the airfield complex is created and operates in accordance with extremely strict standards. ICAO standards regulate the requirements for the meteorological minimum of an instrumental landing, the width and length of runways and taxiways, obstacle limitation surfaces, environmental safety, etc. ? The presence of a hub-forming airline or alliance of airlines. In most cases, the hub is closely associated with the main carrier company that dominates the airport. The main indicators of the degree of its dominance at the airport are: the share of passengers carried by this company in the total passenger turnover of the airport for a certain period of time; ? the share of passenger-kilometers of this company from the same indicator for the airport; Hub index - the number of connecting flights of this company for a certain period of time. Typical examples of airports with a single dominant company are Atlanta Hartsfield International Airport(serves 22 companies, but the share of Delta is about 80%) and London Heathrow Airport (the share of the main carrier - British Airways - is about 40%, but the airport serves 83 airlines, most of which do not participate in connections). However, there are also examples of airports with several dominant airlines. For example, Chicago O "Hare International Airport has 2 main companies with approximately the same share of passenger traffic and comparable hub index. Another example of an airport of this type is Los Angeles International Airport. According to a consulting firm in the field of airports and aviation (Airport & Aviation Consultants) in 2000 In the US, a major hub was defined as an airport with a large number of passengers served and flights operated (more than 7 million landings, i.e. departures of passengers per year) with more than two runways, which are usually parallel.For example, Denver has five runways and is building a sixth Washington Dulles - three runways with two more under development In the United States in 2003, 31 airports were classified as major hubs due to the fact that each of them accounted for more than 1% of aircraft landings of the total number of passengers boarding aircraft in the whole USA These airports passed through themselves 493,911,466 passengers. Airports such as Chicago O "Hare, Atlanta, L os Angeles, Dallas-Ft, Worth, etc. Usually, airlines have at their disposal a system of hubs for routes and routes that are served by these companies. hubs United Airlines are Washington Dulles, Chicago O'Hare, Denver and San Francisco. Continental uses Newark, Cleveland and Houston as hubs. Large hubs have capacious passenger terminals that provide the necessary capacity, taking into account docking waves. The dimensions and layout of these terminals are a total solution and they have alternative options such as line terminals, terminals with boarding galleries, and terminals with adjoining lobbies. Airports that are hubs for certain airlines need to determine the number of passengers making transfers, since boarding, dropping off and transferring passengers put forward different requirements for the execution of various functional areas within the terminal and require appropriate space allocation. The requirements for the airfield facilities of an aerodrome at an airport-hub are determined "by design or critical aircraft". This is an aircraft that performs or is expected to perform at least 500 airstrips (takeoffs and landings) per year. The approach speed and wingspan of design aircraft establish lateral separation standards that define distances between operational areas such as runways and parallel taxiways, runway and taxiway widths, and the size of the runways. On the whole, summing up briefly, one can imagine an airport that, for the next 2-3 decades, will satisfy the requirements for a hub airport and provide an increasing volume of air traffic. Such an airport has several (at least two) parallel runways, spaced in accordance with ICAO requirements, providing the possibility of simultaneous, independent air defense from them. There should be a reserve of land to increase, if necessary, the number of runways more than 3. The passenger terminal is located in the middle between the runways and can be expanded in a modular manner. The terminal is accessible by motorway, railway line or metro line. Landing on all types of transport is carried out in the terminal building or on the square in front of it.

3.4. Foreign and domestic research on the ways of UIA development and the issue of creating a hub airport at UIA

In 1993-1994 Under the auspices of the American bank Lemon Brothers, a study was conducted on the prospective development of UIA (Moscow Airports project). In this work, various options for the integrated functioning of UIA airports were considered and it was concluded that, in terms of attractiveness for investors, funding volumes, airfield capacity and airspace, the level of passenger service, the impact on environment and development opportunities, the most promising is Domodedovo Airport. The following variant of the distribution of air transportation was proposed as the optimal one: to Domodedovo airport - international and domestic passenger traffic, to Sheremetyevo - cargo transportation, to Vnukovo - government and business flights, to Bykovo - a gradual cessation of activities. In 1998, on behalf of the European Union, the Schiphol Airport Services Authority (Amsterdam) prepared and published the report "Planning for the development of civil aviation" (funded by the "Tacis programme"). Previously, in 1997, a group of Western experts from the NACO firm and specialists from the Airport Civil Aviation Association, with the assistance of the Aviainvest company, surveyed 30 of the most important airports in Russia. The general conclusion in this work regarding the development of the Moscow airport system is the warning: “In the conditions of the free Russian air transport market, the Moscow metropolis should be served by one main hub airport with the implementation of the principle of connecting international and intercontinental flights, on the one hand, and international and domestic, on the other "Naturally, this will require ensuring the necessary capacity of runways and terminals. At the same time, it is recommended to develop a clear policy for the selection and development of the hub airport of the Moscow region, which should be significantly modernized in the next decade. As an integral part of the project, it is necessary to provide means of transport to this airport. Only such measures can enable the Moscow metropolis to integrate its hub airport into the rapidly expanding global air transportation network." In addition, the policy of a double hub airport, which provides for the simultaneous development of Sheremetyevo and Domodedovo, and even more so a triple one - Sheremetyevo - Domodedovo - Vnukovo, will be very unprofitable and may lead to the failure of the hopes placed on it. The choice of Moscow's main hub airport should be made primarily on the basis of a capacity perspective. Taking into account the available information on the state of the infrastructure and the results of the conducted research, the experts came to the conclusion that the only long-term solution for choosing the hub airport of the Moscow metropolis should be the choice of Domodedovo, since this particular airport, in terms of its runway and terminal capacity, is able to cope with transformation into a node. In 2000-2001 GPI and NII GA "Aeroproekt", with the participation of a number of other organizations, completed the work entitled "Scheme for the integrated development of the Moscow aviation hub until 2015." It envisaged the creation of a hub airport in Sheremetyevo after the construction of a new air terminal complex, and subsequently - the organization of a second hub airport in Domodedovo. In 2002 LLC "Baltstrakh-M" issued an information and analytical report "On the concept of development of UIA airports". This paper discusses the place of airports in the air transport system, trends in the development of UIA airports and their competitors. It is noted that the "Scheme for the integrated development of the Moscow hub until 2015" suggests, in essence, to leave everything as it is, renovating, improving, modernizing the existing infrastructure for servicing air passengers. In other words, to get a unique, nowhere else in the world, principle of operation of a multi-port hub, although all world experience suggests that accepting this principle means putting an end to the prospect of turning one of the UIA airports into a full-fledged hub. In 2002, CJSC NPO Progresstech, commissioned by the Ministry of Transport of the Moscow Region, carried out research work, in which, based on the results of 2001, taking into account the environmental impact of aircraft on the adjacent territory, an assessment was made of the state and certain aspects of the development of UIA airports were identified. Based on the results of the research, the following conclusion was made that, in terms of its capabilities, volumes and cost efficiency, and taking into account the reservation of significant land areas, Domodedovo Airport has the greatest development prospects for a long period, where it is most expedient to create a hub airport at UIA. The materials "Moscow airports - a look into the future" of the Information portal "AviaPort Ru - first-hand aviation" (2005) contain current provisions on the development of the Moscow aviation hub. It is noted that the concept of a hub, i.e. a transit air hub with a share of transfer passengers measured in tens of percent can be associated both with one airport, if it is the only one in the city, or with an airport complex of several closely located airports managed by a single company. In the latter case, all airports of such an air hub work to attract as many transfer passengers as possible to the air hub as a whole. In this attraction, they do not compete, but complement each other in achieving a common goal. Therefore, the Moscow air transport hub as an economic entity with a coordinated commercial policy of the airports that form it and a strategy for their development, focused on obtaining the maximum total economic effect, did not exist after the collapse of the USSR. There is none even now. UIA is a collective definition of the property complex of 4 Moscow airports, each of which survives as best it can. And this should always be kept in mind when UIA is compared with multi-airport air hubs in London, Paris, Washington, New York, Rome, Milan. Without exception, all Western air hubs have an owner and he is alone. This is the company that operates the air hub or both owns and operates it. The main concern of this host is to attract as many passengers and cargo and the airlines carrying them as possible. The main object of its attention is those users of its services who have a choice, who can use someone else's airport (air hub) or other mode of transport. If the goal is to become a hub like London, Paris, Frankfurt or Amsterdam, you just need to follow the commercial logic of the airport business. This logic is well known: Moscow airports should be developed in such a way that they become more attractive for transfer air passengers than the airports of competing cities. Only by diverting from them the largest possible share of transfer passengers can one count on a multiple increase in passenger traffic through Moscow. What needs to be done for this? The answer to this question will be given by any passenger who arrives at the Moscow airport only for a transfer: make sure that I can transfer at one airport, quickly and without hassle. The simplest, cheapest and fastest way to solve it is to concentrate the service of the largest possible number of regular passenger flights, both domestic and international, at one airport and one terminal. This is the only way to minimize transfer time a large number passengers and their baggage from flight to flight, to do it with maximum convenience for passengers and minimum costs for transfer organizers. If possible! In Milan it was possible. Therefore, the municipality of Milan in 1998 transferred all regular passenger flights from Linate airport located 7 km from the city (11 km to Vnukovo) to Malpensa airport located 53 km from Milan (23 km to Domodedovo), which has two independent runways. The reason is that Linate Airport had one runway and was “noisy”, which reduced its transfer quality to a minimum. Therefore, it left the service of only charter flights and one regular - Rome - Milan. As a result of this reshuffling, already in the following 1999, the growth rate of the total number of passengers at the two Milan airports doubled. It is also impossible to do the same in New York, London, Paris, because none of the 2 - 3 airports that have historically formed near these cities are able to pass the entire flow of passengers alone. And none of them can be expanded - no free territory. Therefore, the municipalities of these cities are doing everything possible to help the companies operating air hubs to organize a quick and comfortable transfer of those transfer passengers whose arrival and departure flights are forced to be served at different airports. Moscow has a unique advantage over the world's multi-airport hubs. It has an airport that can serve its regular passenger traffic, and with the prospect of their multiple growth. Such an airport is Domodedovo Airport. The ongoing redistribution of passenger flows between Moscow airports in favor of Domodedovo is a natural process of concentration of regular passenger traffic in one, the most suitable airport for this. It has no competitor in UIA due to the best transfer potential of this airport. The arrival of each new carrier at Domodedovo strengthens the attraction of this airport for those mainline carriers that are served today at Sheremetyevo and Vnukovo. The more flights, domestic and international, will be served in Domodedovo, the more more possibilities will be for an increasing number of transfer passengers to transfer to desired flight at one airport (see Figure 3.3). The faster this process goes on, the sooner Moscow will turn into a full-fledged air hub.

Fig.3.3. Number of destinations represented in the world's leading hubs, units

The process that has begun will be completed when the majority of regular passenger flights to and from Moscow will be concentrated in Domodedovo. The completion date will be determined by the capacity of the main technological facilities of the airport: the airfield, the passenger terminal, the city-airport route and the ATC system of the Moscow air zone.

3.5. Development trends of the Moscow Aviation Hub

We can draw the following conclusions about the ways of development of the Moscow Aviation Hub: ? The development of the Moscow aviation hub will take place as part of the air transport system of Russia and in accordance with the trends in the global development of air transportation and airport activities. There is a steady upward trend in UIA passenger traffic. ? The geopolitical position of Moscow and the Moscow aviation hub (the capital of the Russian Federation, the largest transport hub of the country and the CIS, the possibility of using UIA airports by European and domestic carriers when flying aircraft from Western Europe to the Far East and South Asian regions, etc.) simply obliges UIA to achieve significant increasing the number of transit and, especially, transfer passengers and improving the quality of their service at airports. ? Further development The Moscow aviation hub can go one of two ways: a) transformation of UIA airports into a single hub with the role of a hub. This is only possible if all UIA airports are managed by a single management company and their competition is excluded from each other. At the same time, an appropriate transport infrastructure between UIA airports and the organization of passenger and baggage transportation are required. b) Gradual formation of a hub at one of the UIA airports, which seems to be more realistic in the end.

At the same time, there is no doubt that directive You can't enter a hub with instructions.

This is a gradual and lengthy process, in which the majority of regular passenger traffic (approximately 60% of UIA), both domestic and international, will move to the hub airport. Each of the stages of this process should be formed taking into account the protection of domestic carriers and, above all, in the market international transport . At the same time, specialization of other UIA airports is possible with the redistribution of other types of transportation activities (cargo transportation, charter flights, business aviation flights, letter flights, etc.). In all likelihood, the implementation of such a program will also require the coordinated management of these processes in a single body, without disrupting the work of the management teams operating at airports by providing airports with appropriate autonomy. ? In any scenario of UIA development, the issue of improving the airport and transport infrastructures is acute, which is directly related to improving the quality of passenger service and cargo handling. At one of the conferences in the Federal Air Transport Agency on the topic: "The tasks and scope of the FAVT" it was noted that the hub is not an air hub, but a technology. A hub can only be an airport that provides connections between flights from different directions in the shortest possible time and with maximum convenience for the passenger. In Europe, for example, English Heathrow and German Frankfurt am Main have long been such airports. The hub is a kind of transshipment base, which does not require the passenger to move to another airport, or additional check-in for the flight and re-registration of baggage. All this is incorporated in one technological chain from the point of departure to the point of arrival. According to the consulting company Informost: "A hub is a good system, it really works in some regions of the world. But in order to implement it in the first place, we must not forget that a hub is not an airport as such, but a transport system that includes an airport and an airline ". Each of the components of the system must perform its tasks. Behind the airport - ensuring flight connections and servicing transit passengers. The airline must have an extensive route network and a special type of schedule that allows connecting flights from different points. As for the Moscow aviation hub, the most difficult role of a multi-port hub is being prepared for it, the implementation of which is associated with a number of insurmountable difficulties, including international transport, the time parameter for transfers, organization of connections, baggage delivery, etc. In practice, this means that Vnukovo, Domodedovo and Sheremetyevo airports continue to compete with each other, selecting passengers and nullifying Moscow's geographical, strategic and economic advantages in the fight for a transfer passenger with other hub airports in the world, i.e. to the detriment of UIA as a whole. If favorable conditions are created, the number of transfer passengers on international flights and domestic flights can reach up to 15% by 2020 according to approximate calculations, and each such passenger brings a double benefit to the airport. As a positive example, we can cite the German regional airport Munich, which is close in terms of air traffic (23 million passengers) to our largest airports, where the number of transfer passengers is 27%, although the geographical, economic and political opportunities of Munich are incomparably less than those of Moscow. The higher the level of development, the higher the speed of information exchange and the speed technical progress. At present, only air transport can offer the highest travel speed on a sufficient scale (see Figure 3.4).

Fig.3.4. The dependence of aviation mobility on the degree of development of the state

In turn, the air transport of countries with modern hub airports with a developed route network becomes a catalyst for economic growth. According to ICAO, about 4.5% of world GDP can be attributed to air transport and the effect that affects the production in the aviation industry itself, or the sphere of consumer goods and services. At the same time, on average in the US, 100 dollars of a product produced in air transport initiates 325 dollars of additional demand in other industries. According to the 2006 ICAO Guidelines for the Economics of Airports, when assessing investments in the development of airports, it is necessary to take into account the multiplier effect of the economic impact of improving the performance of an airport on the economic development of a city, region, country. Main indicator economic development is the gross domestic product. The impact of the development of air transport on the country's economy, which is not directly related to the development of the air transport industry, has received the name in Western literature - the catalytic economic effect. There are a number of works devoted to assessing the development of air transport on the country's economy. Most researchers conclude that there is a positive relationship between the development of the air transport industry and the level of economic activity in the country in the long run. It is possible to single out a number of channels for the influence of the development of air transport (including an increase in the capacity of the airport) on the country's GDP (see Fig. 3.5). Channels of influence can be divided into two groups: factors influencing aggregated demand and aggregated supply. The impact of transport infrastructure development on GDP on the part of aggregate demand occurs through an increase in export/import costs as a result of the inflow/outflow of tourists and changes in trade volumes. Moreover, aviation is used mainly for the transportation of high-tech goods (pharmaceuticals, computer equipment, etc.). As international experience shows, the quality of transport infrastructure has a significant impact on international trade. First, the poor quality of infrastructure increases overall transport costs. Although accurate and realistic calculations are difficult to make, there are a number of studies that attempt to do so. So, for example, the negative impact of lack of infrastructure on domestic income can be estimated through the fact that improving infrastructure in the service sector reduces losses by 154 million or 4% of world GNP (national domestic product) 1.

Fig.3.5. Economic catalytic effect of air transport development on GDP

Secondly, public infrastructure, including transport infrastructure, has an impact on trade through its impact on comparative advantage. Yeaple & Golub2 quantified the extent to which infrastructure contributes to international differences in the total factor productivity (TFP) that exists at the industry level. Thus, the provision of road infrastructure is a significant factor in the growth of productivity and country production specialization. In the work of experts of the World Trade Organization Nordas and Piermartini (H. K. Nordes and R. Piermartini) "Infrastructure and Trade" (Infrastructure and Trade)3, based on the assessment of the gravity model, the influence of the quality of infrastructure (air and sea, land transport, as well as telecommunications and the necessary time for customs clearance of goods) on the total volume of trade between the two countries as a whole and for individual industries (automotive and textile industries, the production of ready-made clothing). The study proves that the quality of infrastructure is an important factor in the performance of trading activities. The best infrastructure for maritime, land and air transport is associated with a large volume of trade. The quality of ports has the most significant impact on trade. Trade with an exporting country that has doubled the number of airports in the future leads to an increase in bilateral trade by 15%.

On the supply side GDP growth rates are subdivided into those driven by an increase in the use of factors of production—usually an increase in capital (i.e. investment) and labor (employment)—and rates that cannot be explained by observable changes in factor use 4. Therefore, the unexplained part of GDP growth is considered to represent an increase in total factor productivity (getting more output for the same amount of inputs) or is an indicator of technical progress in its broad definition.

The identity of the accounting system for economic growth factors is written as:

where GY is the growth of real GDP, GK is the growth of fixed assets, and GL is the growth of employment, "A" is the growth of total factor productivity, "b" and "c" are the shares of capital and labor in income.

The development of transport infrastructure has an impact on all three components.

Investments

The impact of public investment on growth differs from that of private 5. Accordingly, the following modification is introduced into function (1):

where GP is the growth rate of public investment

According to American economists, a 1% increase in public investment leads to an increase in labor productivity by 0.15% - 0.3%. And the corresponding change in both private and public investment - by 0.35%. However, the return on public investment also depends on the direction of their use. There are a number of American works devoted separately to the study of the impact on the economic development of the region of increasing the capacity of airports6. On average, analysis of panel data for the US states showed that, all other things being equal, an increase in the number of runways by 1% increases GRP by 0.9% (if the runway length is less than 3 km). An analysis by David Canning and Marianne Fay of transport infrastructure in 96 countries around the world revealed the following pattern: the higher the level of investment (and total capital stock) in the transport infrastructure sector, the higher the national performance of social capital 7. The transport network is often one of the key factors influencing the investment decisions of private companies. Even A. Marshal wrote that when making a decision to open production in a particular country, firms, incl. They also focus on minimizing their transportation costs: the transportation of goods, people and ideas. Despite the development of information technology, face-to-face meetings continue to play a significant role in business, especially at the initial stages of cooperation 8. Modern econometric studies9 for the EU countries have shown that, according to Oxford Economic Forecasting and the Eurocontrol Experimental Center, a 10% increase in the use of air transport in Europe will lead to in the long run to an increase in the average annual growth rate of investments by 1.6%, all other things being equal. As a result, performance, i.e. GDP per capita will grow by 0.6% (see Figure 3.6).

Rice. 3.6. Correlation between the volume of investment and the use of air transport in % of GDP (24 EU countries)

Source: Economic Catalytic Effects of Air transport in Europe// Oxford Economic Forecasting

Employment.

Direct business communication has a greater effectiveness, the power of emotional impact and suggestion than indirect, socio-psychological mechanisms directly operate in it. In the world, every fourth person who goes on a trip - near and far, short-term and long-term - does it for official reasons. This is the so-called business travel or business tourism. Business tourism is one of the most important conditions for a successful business. According to foreign experts, by 2020 the number of international business trips will increase three times - from 564 million to 1.6 billion per year. At the same time, the turnover of this sector will increase 5 times - from 400 billion US dollars to 2.0 trillion. According to the American organization "Round Table of Business Tourism", an increase in turnover in this area by one billion dollars leads to the creation of 100,000 new jobs.

Aggregate Factor Productivity .

Increasing the volume of transport services, incl. aviation, increases the size of the markets in which companies operate10. This in turn leads to economies of scale and a more efficient allocation of resources. Development air transport allows companies to rationalize the distribution of production. Good air links improve companies' market access, which increases competition between companies and reduces market monopolization. This forces companies to use more modern technologies. Moreover, there could be dynamic effects if improvements in air transport services lead to higher ROI in other sectors and increase companies' spending on innovation, or create efficient business links and networks. Foreign investment is a key channel for bringing new technologies into the country. In general, all of the above factors increase the total productivity of factors (Fig. 3.7).

Fig.3.7. Air transport use and total factor productivity (24 EU countries).

Thus, due to the multiplier effect of indirect effects, according to various estimates, a 10% increase in air transport services leads to GDP growth in economically developed countries from 0.6%11 to 1.9%12.

4. Forecast of air transportation at UIA until 2030

4.1. general information

The transportation forecast was made by Progresstech LLC using previously completed work: ? "Justification of investments for the project "Development of the Moscow Aviation Hub. Construction of a complex of a new runway (RWY-3) of the Sheremetyevo International Airport, Moscow Region. LLC "Progresstech", 2007; ? "Master Plan for the Development of Sheremetyevo International Airport for the period up to 2030". Scott & Wilson, 2008; ? "Justification of investments in the reconstruction and development of Domodedovo airport. Objects of federal property" (1st stage of construction), LLC "Progresstech", 2008; and also taking into account the comments of the Federal State Institution "Glavgosexpertiza of Russia" on the work "Justification of investments for the project" Development of the Moscow Aviation Hub. Construction of a complex of a new runway (RWY-3) of Sheremetyevo International Airport, Moscow Region" and on the work "Justification of investments in the reconstruction and development of Domodedovo airport. Objects of federal property". The work used data from the Statistical Office of the Moscow Region, the Transport and Clearing Chamber of the Russian Federation, Sheremetyevo and Domodedovo International Airports.

4.2. Economic development of Russia

The development of the Russian economy at the end of 2008 and in 2009 was marked by adaptation to the conditions of an acute economic crisis caused by both external (global economic crisis, falling demand and prices for raw materials) and internal factors (economy recovery from investment overheating) and not was even. A sharp deterioration in external economic conditions, a drop in exports, capital outflow and a suspension of bank credit led to a significant reduction in investment activity and a decline in industry in the first half of 2009. By mid-2009, the economic downturn in Russia had stopped and from June to December the Russian economy experienced consistent growth. In general, in 2009 the GDP decreased by 7.9 percent. The decline in GDP in 2009 is associated, to a large extent, with the collapse of investment demand. Investments in fixed assets decreased by 17.0 percent. The collapse of the existing system of investment in the construction industry led to a lack of funding and the freezing of most of the planned projects. One of the main trends in 2009 was the curtailment of construction work at industrial facilities. One of the main factors behind the reversal of the recession dynamics and the transition to recovery growth was the improvement in the economic situation in the main regions of the world and the effect of stimulating fiscal measures, which began to manifest itself by the second half of the year.

Table 4.1. Growth rates of key indicators of the economy (seasonally excluded)* by quarters, in % of the previous period

Table 4.2. The main indicators of the development of the Russian economy in 2007-2009.

Fig.4.1. Dynamics of gross domestic product excluding * seasonal and calendar factors (2) and without exception (1), January 1995 - 100%

A large-scale decline in production is the main trend of the year. The decline in production forced companies to cut costs: 2009 was the year of mass layoffs. According to the results of a sample survey of the population of Russia on employment issues, the average annual number of unemployed, calculated according to the methodology of the ILO, amounted to 6.3 million people in 2009 (8.4% of the economically active population), which is 1.5 million people more than in 2008. The highest unemployment rate was observed in February and March (9.4% and 9.2%, respectively), by the middle of the year, as the economy recovered and measures to support employment became more active, the situation on the labor market began to improve. The number of officially registered unemployed increased by 684,000 people on average in 2009 and amounted to 2.1 million people (2.8% of the economically active population). The rate of underemployment remains high. According to the monitoring of the situation on the labor market in the context of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, conducted by the Ministry of Health and Social Development of Russia, as of December 30, 2009, the total number of employees who are idle due to the fault of the administration, working part-time, as well as employees who were granted leave on the initiative administration, exceeded 1.6 million people. The growth of real disposable money income of the population in 2009 amounted to 1.9 percent. At the same time, real wages decreased by 2.8 percent. Figure 4.2 shows the growth rates of significant indicators of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation in the period from 1996 to 2009.

Fig.4.2. Growth rates of significant indicators of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation

4.3. Programs for the development of the Russian economy

In order to take into account the consequences of the impact of the global economic crisis on the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation in the short term, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation developed a "Draft Scenario Conditions for the Functioning of the Economy of the Russian Federation and the Main Parameters of the Forecast of the Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Federation for 2011 and the Planning Period 2012 and 2013". The calculation of indicators in the forecast was carried out taking into account the trends in the development of the world economy and the external economic situation, as well as the results of the development of the Russian economy in January-April 2010. In general, at the beginning of 2010, the trend of economic recovery, which began in the middle of last year, continued. In the 1st quarter of 2010, GDP growth slowed down somewhat as a result of weak investment demand, but already in April growth acceleration was observed in most macroeconomic indicators. In annual terms, GDP in the 1st quarter of 2010, according to preliminary estimates of Rosstat, grew by 2.9% against a fall of 3.8% in the 4th quarter of 2009, and in January-April, according to the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia, GDP increased by 3, 5% compared to the corresponding period of the previous year The parameters of the socio-economic development forecast for 2010-2013 were developed according to two main options - options 1b and 2b, which are based on hypotheses regarding a sustainable recovery of the world economy, provided by the expected growth of the economies of the USA, China, Southeast Asia and India, and a moderate rise in Urals oil prices to $78-79 per barrel in 2012-2013. The conservative option 1b was developed in the face of continued risks of low investment demand, weak growth in consumer demand while maintaining public sector wages at the 2009 level, as well as a slow recovery in lending activity. Annual economic growth rates may reach 2.6-3.1 percent. Moderately optimistic option 2b reflects a faster recovery of the economy as a result of the fullest realization of its growth potential through improved business efficiency, increased bank lending, as well as stimulating economic growth and modernization. In 2011-2013, a more active public policy aimed at the development of transport infrastructure, science and technology, housing construction and housing and communal services, regional development, and a restrained policy of regulating electricity tariffs. Along with the rationalization of the system of budgetary institutions after 2010, wages in the public sector are expected to be indexed in proportion to inflation. GDP growth in 2010-2013 is projected at the level of 3.4-4.2 percent. Additionally, options were worked out with different dynamics of oil prices and growth rates of the world economy. Option 1a was developed in the context of a decline in the price of Urals oil in 2012-2013 to $68-62 per barrel due to a slowdown in global economic growth to 2.7-3.3 percent. The option takes into account the risks associated with both lower growth rates of demand for hydrocarbons and the risks associated with an increase in the supply of oil from Iraq, an increase in shale gas production and an increase in spot gas sales, which could lead to a faster drop in gas prices relative to other commodities. The adaptation of the Russian economy to this pessimistic scenario for the development of the world economy will require a significant depreciation of the ruble and will be associated with a slowdown in growth rates. Option 2c reflects a more optimistic recovery of the global economy from the crisis, a higher level of energy demand and a recovery of the positive trend in oil prices to $85 in 2012 and to $90 per barrel in 2013. In 2012, GDP reaches a new high: in 2013, GDP is expected to be 6.8% higher than the pre-crisis level of 2008. GDP in 2010 is projected at the level of 3.1-4%, in 2011-2012 - 2.6-3.4%, in 2013 - 3.1-4.2 percent. Reaching the upper limit corresponds to the conditions of option 2b, proposed as the main one for budget calculations. In 2010, domestic demand will increase by 6.8% in real terms, primarily due to the restoration of production reserves, as well as due to the growth in consumption, supported by the growth in real incomes of the population. In 2011-2013, the growth of domestic demand will slow down due to the exhaustion of the recovery growth of reserves and will amount to 5-6% per year, while the role of investment demand will increase. It is assumed that the consequences of the economic crisis in Russia will exhaust their influence in the short term, and from 2014 Russia will reach the pace of development laid down in the long-term development program. The economic forecasts used in this paper are considered conservative. This reflects both the long-term outlook and the significant risks inherent in the Russian economy. The Russian economy is heavily dependent on oil, gas and other natural resources. At the same time, it is relatively poorly diversified, which means that any negative trends in these sectors will immediately have a significant impact on prospective economic growth. In 2009, the volume of scheduled passenger traffic of airlines of member states international organization civil aviation (ICAO) decreased by 3.1% compared to 2008.

4.4. Passenger traffic forecast for UIA

A feature of the forecast for the airports of the Moscow aviation hub is the fact that these airports account for about 45% of the total passenger traffic of the Russian Federation. Moreover, this trend has continued over the past five years. The development of the transportation forecast at UIA until 2030 was carried out taking into account the crisis that hit the financial and economic system of the world, including Russia, was carried out using materials from the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation and leading Russian economists. At the first stage, traffic forecasting was carried out for the air hub as a whole, using the same approaches and models as for individual independent airports. When developing a forecast for the development of the industry, the following materials were used in the work: "Transport strategy of the Russian Federation until 2030", Approved by order of the Government of the Russian Federation of November 22, 2008 No. 1734-r; ? "The concept of long-term socio-economic development of the Russian Federation", MEDT, October 2007; ? "The main parameters of the forecast of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2020-2030" - Appendix to the "Concept for the long-term socio-economic development of the Russian Federation", MEDT, August 2008; ? "Draft scenario conditions for the functioning of the economy of the Russian Federation and the main parameters of the forecast of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for 2011 and the planning period of 2012 and 2013", MED, June 2010. . ? ICAO (Manual of Air Traffic Forecasting, Second Edition, 8991-AT/722/2, 1985) The economic situation in Russia on the eve of the crisis was characterized by economists as follows. Modern Russia highly dependent on the export of raw materials. Moreover, this dependence has gone very deep into the very structure of the economy. This is clearly seen in the example of the dollar against the ruble. In the spring of 2003, the dollar exchange rate in Russia went down. However, the reason for this phenomenon was not the devaluation of the dollar on world markets, but an excess of dollars from Russian exporters of raw materials, who are forced to sell them on the open market. This suggests that today in Russia there is no problem of investment "binding" of money outside the fuel and energy and raw materials complex. In other words, Russia not only did not develop its economy due to a lack of investment resources, but it has already lost the opportunity to develop the investment process in the presence of free money. Such a situation in the event of a crisis will inevitably lead to a severe recession and a very significant drop in living standards and an increase in unemployment. The budget formation system in our country is also built exclusively on the exploitation of the raw material sector with its export opportunities. The level of taxation of producers is too high for them to legally develop their business, which leads to restrictions in the investment process and the transition to "gray" schemes of work that exclude the payment of taxes. In addition, the refusal of the country's government to implement any strategic plans for economic development and the complete lack of responsibility for the work being done (or vice versa, not being done) has led to an incredible increase in corruption. Under these conditions, Russia entered the financial and economic crisis that hit the entire world economy. The duration and consequences of it as a whole on the world economic system and, in particular, on Russia, while economists and analysts do not give a definite answer. In this regard, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation has developed two main options for the development of the Russian economy for the next three years from 2010 to 2013, which formed the basis for further possible development of the socio-economic situation in the country. The first option (1b), as mentioned above, reflects the trend of Russia's socio-economic development, as a conservative option. It provides for the maintenance of low dynamics of oil prices in 2010-2013 at the level of 75-79 US dollars per barrel in accordance with the parameters included in the budget guidelines. In 2010-2013, GDP growth is projected at 3.1%, which will not fully compensate for the 2009 decline. The second option (2b) - a moderately optimistic scenario for the development of the Russian economy is considered as a more probable forecast option, taking into account a more favorable external economic situation. In 2010, oil prices are expected to stabilize at $75 per barrel and then rise to $78-79 per barrel in 2011-2013. The projected GDP growth rate for three years will be 3.4-4.2%, which will allow in 2013 to exceed the pre-crisis level. The development of the forecast up to 2030 was based on the following assumptions. The modern economic model existed due to the constant expansion of sales markets and the "dollar zone". The current crisis is connected, among other things, with the physical exhaustion of the possibilities for expanding these territories. The development of the American economy took place due to its pumping with cheap credit funds (the total US debt (public, corporate, private) at the beginning of 2009 exceeds 50 trillion dollars). In order to prevent excess money supply from entering the real sector and its "recycling", financial bubbles of mortgages and the stock market were invented and inflated. The development of the global economic crisis will lead within a few years to a partial or complete change in the existing system of economic relations and the loss of the function of the US dollar as a single measure of value - EMC. One of possible consequences economic crisis will be the division of today's single world economic space into a number of autonomous economic zones. At the same time, the cost of manufacturing any product in Russia due to its geographical location is significantly higher than in any other country in the world (with rare exceptions). As a result, any goods produced in Russia, including agricultural ones, when compared with foreign analogues, lose in terms of revenue / cost ratio. Consequently, domestic goods are less efficient, i.e. with the same investments, they bring the investor less profit than foreign counterparts. The lower efficiency of the domestic economy also determines the fact that the inflow of foreign capital into the country is carried out not by investing in the creation and development of domestic industry, but by providing loans, since the interest on loans granted is fixed and does not depend on the profitability of the recipient. As a result of the collapse of industry and the huge outflow of industrial and financial capital from the country in the post-Soviet period, it is impossible to get out of the crisis without a sharp decline in living standards. Therefore, in the future (until 2030), in principle, two development options are possible, which are presented in Table 4.3.

Table 4.3. Development options

Option A can lead to a deterioration in the situation in the Russian economy, so it is excluded from consideration. Thus, the government will base its activities on option B. Detailing this option, taking into account the short-term forecast presented by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation in two versions, will be considered when developing a traffic forecast for UIA and Sheremetyevo, Domodedovo and Vnukovo airports for the long-term period until 2030. We have no other options for the development of the economic situation, except for the two listed, in the face of falling export earnings. At the moment, there are all signs in the country that option B is being implemented. It is still difficult to assess whether this is being done consciously or is a mere coincidence, but the result of these actions is already noticeable now - a decrease in effective demand, a decrease in imports, a stop and reduction in production, growth unemployment. Based on this, it is possible to formulate strategies that the main market participants will adhere to: the population, business, government, until the start of fundamental economic reforms in the event that this option is further implemented. Population: will reduce consumption by reducing the cost of purchasing durable goods; Business: ? will start curtailing and mothballing production, reducing to a minimum the cost of maintaining it; ? if possible, will switch to the production of more cheap and simple consumer goods; ? in mechanical engineering, the focus will be on the production of cheap multifunctional agricultural machinery; ? in the automotive industry, the focus will be on the production of cheap, highly passable cars. In order to maximize the mitigation of the economic situation, the state authorities must resolve several fundamental issues: develop a viable mechanism for lending to domestic production; ? to relieve social tension, ensure the employment of citizens who have temporarily lost their jobs due to the shutdown of production or receive a minimum income, preferably without mass migration and without a significant increase in the expenditure side of the state budget; ? solve the issue of financing the state budget deficit without foreign currency borrowings. Based on the strategies of behavior of the main players in the market listed above, we can make the following assumptions about the trends in the development of macro indicators that determine the general socio-economic situation in society. The dynamics of the development of GDP and real disposable income of the population, which reflects the standard of living of the population, will be rather moderate without any upsurge due to the extremely difficult situation in the economy at the current time. However, as the economy recovers, both GDP and real incomes of the population will grow. The presented growth rates in terms of GDP and real income are in good agreement with the previously developed forecast of these indicators by CJSC "Center for Management and Legal Initiatives "Strategy". 6.7%, and the growth of real disposable income - from 3.5 to 6.5% Passenger traffic forecast was made on the basis of the ICAO methodology. air transportation ICAO Taking into account the realities of the time, in accordance with the above methodology, three options for the development of passenger traffic at UIA until 2030 have been developed. Below, in table 4.4, there are 3 options for forecasting UIA traffic (pessimistic, medium and optimistic)

Table 4.4. UIA passenger traffic forecast, million people

The forecast for cargo traffic was not carried out, since the air traffic of cargo aircraft at UIA airports is only about 5% of the total number of runways and does not significantly affect their throughput.

AIR TRANSPORT MARKET OVERVIEW

FOR 2004 (REGULAR AND IRREGULAR TRANSPORTATION)….………….. 14

11. FUEL……………………………………………………………………………………………..…. 28

12. RUSSIAN AIR FLEET……………………………………….. 29

13. Assessment of the need for the supply of new types of aircraft…………………. 31

14. DESCRIPTION OF USERS………………………………………………………………….. 35

Research objectives

The main purpose of the study is to obtain reliable information about current trends in the air transportation market in order to assess investment attractiveness industries.

Information sources

Airports Council International

Airbus (date Global Market Forecast, GMF)

Boston Consulting Group (BCG)

Capital Research Group

Solomon Smith Barney

PriceWaterhouseCoopers

Business Aviation Association (ADA)

Transport Clearing House

TNS/Gallup Media

KOMKON - Media

Federal Agency of Air Communications

Main Control Directorate of the President of the Russian Federation

Statistical authorities (Rosstatagenstvo, regional departments of statistics)

Facilities mass media(industry and specialized magazines, newspapers)

Chambers of Commerce and Business Support Organizations (reports, research, address information)

Airbus A319/A320/321, A300-600

48 (21 jointly with Aeroflot)

Airbus A318/A320/321

Austrian Airlines

28 (14 jointly with Aeroflot)

Airbus A321, Fokker 70

20 (7 jointly with Aeroflot)

Germania Express

Boeing 767, Airbus A320

MD-80, Boeing 737

14 (7 jointly with Aeroflot)

Lufthansa(LH)

Between January and December 2004, the airlines of the Lufthansa Group carried 50.9 million passengers, up 12% on 2003. The volume of offered carrying capacity increased by 13.4%. The volume of realized carrying capacity increased by 14.7%, exceeding the mark of 100 billion pkm for the first time. As a result, the seat occupancy rate increased by 0.9% to 74.0%.

The increase in passenger traffic on Russian routes in 2004 amounted to more than 10% compared to the previous year. In 2004, passenger traffic amounted to 820 thousand passengers.

Routes to Moscow and St. Petersburg remain the busiest - the percentage of passenger seat occupancy on them is on average 70%. In May last year, Lufthansa added Rostov-on-Don and Ufa to its schedule, and resumed flights from Dusseldorf to Moscow in the autumn.

Of the regional destinations, Samara (where the number of frequencies was increased from three to seven per week) and Yekaterinburg showed the largest increase in passenger traffic at the end of the year.

The strong point is extensive network routes around the world and convenient system connections. Passengers from Russia will be delivered to Frankfurt am Main or Munich, the company's hub airports, from where they can get to almost anywhere in the world. The company serves Russian destinations on its own, without code-sharing agreements with any of the Russian carriers.

Air France

In the winter schedule, Air France operates 48 flights a week from Moscow (with 21 frequencies operated in cooperation with Aeroflot). Air France also operates two daily flights to St. Petersburg.

Austrian Airlines

The Austrian company operates 28 weekly flights to Moscow (14 of them - under a code-share agreement with Aeroflot, on the aircraft of a Russian carrier), occupying third place in both rankings. The company has a fairly strong position in the transportation market to Russia: it makes 39 weekly flights to four Russian cities (Moscow, St. Petersburg, Rostov-on-Don and Krasnodar). On routes to Rostov and Krasnodar, Austrian operates a 50-seat Bombardier CRJ, and on routes to Moscow and St. Petersburg, depending on demand, it installs Fokker 70, Airbus A320 and sometimes MD-87.

In 2004, the company achieved an increase in passenger traffic on routes to Russia by 28% compared to 2003. The largest increase was given by the Moscow direction and the route to Rostov-on-Don (it was opened only at the end of 2003 and last year "untwisted "). In the structure of passenger traffic on routes from Russia, the ratio of Russians and foreigners is 50:50. At the same time, about half of them use Vienna as a transfer hub, continuing their journey on the flights of Austrian and its partners in the Austrian group Airlines Group And Alliance Star alliance.

SWISS(21 frequencies)

The Swiss company is 4 place in the Russian market. In 2004, it did not open any new routes or increase frequencies on any of the routes already served. The company will not increase its presence in the Russian market in 2005. SWISS only operates flights to Moscow, so the Swiss carrier only ranks eighth in the ranking of the total number of frequencies to Russia.

In 2004, the percentage of seat occupancy on the Geneva-Moscow routes (one daily flight) and Zurich-Moscow (two flights a day) increased slightly compared to 2003 and amounted to 65%. If we evaluate the load of business class lounges, then this figure ranges from 30 to 80%. The number of Russians in the structure of passenger traffic in the Moscow direction is 80% during all-Russian holidays and school holidays and 50% during normal, "off-peak" times.

CSA Czech Airlines

The Czech company occupies 5 place in the rating for Moscow and fourth in the summary table for Russia. In the winter schedule, this airline operates flights to Moscow, St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg and Samara.

Germania Express

The company, which specializes in low fares, in March 2004 increased the number of flights from Germany to Moscow from 9 to 15 per week. In the ATO rating, this airline occupies sixth place in terms of the number of flights operated from Moscow, and tenth place in terms of the total number of flights to Russia. In 2005 Germania plans to increase its presence in the Russian market.

Today the airline flies from Moscow's Domodedovo to Berlin, Munich and Dusseldorf, but perhaps in 2005 the carrier will link two more German cities with Moscow.

british airways(BA)

The company is ranked in both rankings seventh line. Last year, the company also turned its attention to the Russian regions by opening a flight to Yekaterinburg. In addition, last summer the company increased the number of frequencies on the London-St. Petersburg route (making this flight daily). As for the Moscow direction, nothing has changed here in 2004 - BA still operates its 14 flights on Airbus A320 and Boeing 767 aircraft. In 2004, the airline's passenger traffic between Russia and the UK increased by 10-12% (in the previous year, the corresponding growth rate was 7-8%). During this time, BA transported about 275 thousand passengers. on directions to Russia. In 2005 the airline does not plan to open new routes.

Alitalia

The company occupies eighth place in the rating in Moscow and ninth in Russia. Operates flights only to Moscow and St. Petersburg, with a total of 20 frequencies per week. There were no changes in her work in Russia during the year.

SAS Scandinavian Airlines System

The Scandinavian airline also operates exclusively on routes to Moscow and St. Petersburg. The company operates McDonnell Douglas MD-80 and Boeing 737 aircraft on its lines. During the year, there were no significant changes in its work - with its 14 frequencies from Moscow and 12 from the Northern capital, the company keeps ninth place in the Moscow ranking and fifth in the all-Russian.

tenth place in Moscow and sixth in Russia. The company independently operates a daily evening flight to Moscow on Boeing 737 aircraft, and also sells tickets for Aeroflot's morning flights to Warsaw under a code-share agreement. The Polish airline also operates flights to St. Petersburg (five weekly) and Kaliningrad (so far six flights, but with the transition to the summer schedule, LOT expects to introduce the seventh frequency).

Emirates Airlines

In 2004, the airline noted a significant increase in revenue from transportation to the Russian direction. The airline achieved a 5-10% increase in passenger traffic and a 30% increase in sales in Russia. Loading in the segment "first" and "business classes" - 65-70%". In 2004, there was an increase in premium class tariffs from 2.1 thousand dollars to 2.5 thousand dollars. every second Emirates customer on routes from Moscow uses Dubai as a transfer point In 2004, flights to Singapore, Mauritius, the Maldives and Bangkok e on Emirates aircraft took 150-200 Russian passengers per month.

SN Brussels Airlines

The airline continues to expand its presence in the Eastern European air transportation market.

Flights on the route Brussels - Moscow - Brussels will be operated 5 times a week on Airbus A319 aircraft. Flights on the route Brussels - St. Petersburg - Brussels will be operated 2 times a week on Avro RJ 85 aircraft.

For transit passengers from Russia, a convenient flight schedule provides direct connections with almost all European flights of SN Brussels Airlines. On 90% of the airline's destinations, business class passengers are provided with comfortable lounges (Business class lounges).

The staff of the company is more than 1950 people. SN Brussels Airlines operates more than 285 flights per day, connecting Brussels with 54 European and 14 African cities, and offers 1 daily direct flight from Brussels to Chicago and onwards to 22 destinations in the USA. In May 2004, the company opens daily direct flights on the route Brussels - New York - Brussels. The modern fleet of SN Brussels Airlines consists of 38 aircraft, providing business and economy classes and meeting the standards of comfort and safety. According to official AEA statistics, SN Brussels Airlines ranked third in punctuality among European carriers in 2003 after Luxair and Tarom. Punctuality was 92%. SN Brussels Airlines is owned by private investors. Chairman of the Board of Directors - Rob Kuijpers. The President is Peter Davies.

Two companies agreed on the merger - the French Air France and Dutch KLM. As a result of this merger, the largest airline in Europe will emerge. In the future, the union of KLM and Air France may be strengthened by the Italian airline Alitalia, which has already announced that it is going to start accession talks. If we add up the number of passengers and flight kilometers for three airlines, then according to this indicator, the trio can come close to american airlines- the world's largest air carrier.

Both Air France and KLM, which formed an alliance, carry more passengers than the whole civil Aviation Russia, and the combination of efforts gives them additional features- and to optimize the use of the aircraft fleet, and to optimize the geography of routes. Russian companies, and above all Aeroflot, have received a strong competitor.

The growth in passenger traffic of carriers in the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region amounted to 24.8 and 20.5%, respectively.

The outlook for the coming years is not so bright: runaway fuel cost growth will cap global passenger growth by about six percent a year for the period up to 2008

OVERVIEW OF WORLD AIRPORTS

In the coming years, nine superhubs will be formed - three for each of the regions where the world's largest airlines are based. As candidates - London, Frankfurt and Paris in Europe; Chicago, Dallas ("Fort Worth") and Atlanta in the USA; Tokyo, Singapore and Hong Kong in Asia.

This forecast is based on the locations of the leading members of the world's three largest alliances of air carriers: Oneworld, SkyTeam and Star Alliance. During the crisis caused by terrorist acts, these alliances accounted for 55% of global passenger traffic and their combined losses amounted to $20.4 billion.

The success of airports is directly related to the carriers they serve. If we take the 50 largest airports in the world, then in more than 75% of them, more than 40% of takeoffs and landings are accounted for by one carrier. In some cases, this figure reaches 80%.

During a sharp decline in traffic in the years. U.S. hub ports, closing the list of the 25 largest, lost 12.8%, while the leaders of the rating lost only 6.3% of their traffic.

The situation on the market indicates that passengers are not ready to pay extra money for convenience when transferring. This results in the kind of hub scheduling changes American has implemented in Fort Worth, Dallas, and recently started implementing Delta in Hartsfield, Atlanta. Passengers are much more willing to waste time if carriers offer lower ticket prices. At the same time, airlines get the opportunity to more flexibly form their schedule.

In connection with the removal of daily peaks, another question arises: how many hubs do you need? One of the ways they survive is to specialize in some direction. For example, Iberia's base airport in Madrid became the main airport for its flights to South America instead of the more expensive airport in Miami. Austrian Airlines sees a future in organizing flights from Vienna's hub airport to Eastern Europe.

Reducing the number of hubs is a key factor in the need to operate aircraft large capacity. It is these aircraft that should be used for flights between the airports formed as a result of the concentration.

In the United States, the volume of international traffic between non-hub airports is declining by an average of 4.9% annually, and between hubs is growing by 6.7%.

Passenger flows of the largest airports in the world in 2004

Aircraft traffic through major airports in the world in 2004

At the beginning of October 2004, the European branch International Council Airports (ACI) summed up the results of the work of European airports in August 2004. The average increase in passenger traffic compared to August 2003 amounted to 4.9%. The maximum growth rates were demonstrated by small airports. Thus, in group 1 (over 25 million passengers per year), the growth was 3.4%, in group 2 (10-25 million) - 4.8%, in group 3 (5-10 million) - 5.7% , and in group 4 (up to 5 million) - 7.9%.

The tendency of outstripping growth of the airports of group 4 is observed during all three summer months. In particular, in July the passenger traffic through the airports of this group increased by 11.1% as compared to July 2003, and in June this figure was 10%.

The leaders in terms of growth in the number of served passengers were also named. In group 1, these are: Rome's Fiumicino (7.1%), Madrid's Barajas (6.2%) and Amsterdam's Schiphol (5.1%). In group 2, the leaders were the airports of Munich (14.4%), Vienna (14.0%) and London Stansted (9.4%). In Group 3, Moscow Domodedovo (25.2%), Prague airports (22.7%) and Stuttgart (14.4%) have the highest rate. Group 4 is dominated by the air harbors of Girona (62.7%), Riga (56.3%) and Vilnius (44%).

The primary reason for the rapid growth of small airports has been cited as their attraction of no-frills airlines. Perhaps the most typical example is Girona Airport, located relatively close to Barcelona and the popular Mediterranean resorts of Catalonia.

TRENDS IN THE RUSSIAN AIR TRANSPORTATION MARKET

Economic Growth Forecast

Volume of transport work of civil aviation enterprises

The level of development of passenger transportation

Air transport carries out today in the country about a third of the volume of traffic.

The volume of passenger traffic over the past 10 years has decreased by 2.5 times (from 88 million people to 34), and the number of air carriers has increased by 3 times.

Over the past four years, the volume of air transportation has been growing steadily - in 2001. by 15%, in 2002 by 8%, in 2003 by 9% and in 2004 by 15%

Concentration of passenger traffic in Moscow (66% of total flights) and St. Petersburg. The number of interregional flights is decreasing.

Russia has an excess number of international airports (72 airports out of 486 operating). At the same time, only 28 airports correspond to ICAO categories I and II.

The average airfare is 1.23 times higher than the average salary in the Russian Federation. For comparison: in 1990. the average tariff was 12% of the average wage.

In 2004 turned to air transport services 3% the population of the country.

Since 2001, the growth of tariffs for air transportation of passengers on the air routes of the Russian Federation has been 10-12% per year, in 2004 - 11.2%, which does not exceed the inflation rate in the Russian Federation

88% of the total volume of air transportation is carried out by 24 airlines out of 210 existing ones.

The share of 8 leading airports in the country (Moscow Sheremetyevo, Domodedovo, Vnukovo, St. Petersburg Pulkovo, Ekaterinburg Koltsovo, Novosibirsk Tolmachevo, Krasnoyarsk Emelyanovo and Sochi Adler) accounts for more than 60% of all air transportation.

The share of international traffic is 48% in the passenger market.

At the same time, the share of traffic in the developed countries is 16-18% in total passenger traffic.

Over 70% of the fleet of ships have a service life of more than 10 years. 70% - at the final stage of operation. Most airlines build their strategy on "finishing off" the resource of existing aircraft and do not see development prospects.

There is a trend of "Cannibalization" - dismantling for parts, rearranging from side to side.

One of the most acute problems is the moral and physical obsolescence of the aircraft fleet. By 2010, about 50% fleet operated by Russian carriers. In the years the domestic aviation industry produced only 27 mainline airliners. And in 2004 Russian airlines purchased 15 used foreign aircraft and only four new Russian aircraft - three Il-96 and one Tu-204.

Taking into account the write-off of aircraft due to the exhaustion of the resource, already in 2005 the reduction in the fleet will be 18%. In 2006, a number of leading airlines with a significant network of foreign routes - primarily Pulkovo, Sibir and KrasAir - will face an acute shortage of modern aircraft, since the old Russian technology available in relative abundance does not meet current in Western Europe and the USA to environmental requirements and has a low efficiency.

The current position and future of the global air transportation market is connected with the formation of alliances of airlines based on a circle of airports, on the basis of which the transportation network is built and which will ensure the growth of traffic, based in them airlines - members of the alliance. Competition in the global air travel market is a struggle between alliances of airlines and major hub airports to capture as much of the consumer market as possible.

In the world, there are now two trends in the development of air travel:

1) the point-to-point system, which can be seen in the example of the United States, involves direct flights between the point of departure and the point of destination (Figure 1);

2) European countries are closer to the hub-and-spoke scheme (literally - knot and spoke), which means that the passenger does not fly directly to the destination, but with a transfer at the hub airport (Figure 1).

At the same time, the schedule must be drawn up so that the passenger can transfer to the connected flight as soon as possible. That is, hub airports collect passenger flows from a large number of cities and redistribute them to connected flights. The hub airport should also develop a special technology for passenger service and baggage handling, which ensures the highest possible level of passenger service. These trends leave their mark on the formation of the policy of the leading aircraft building corporations: the American company Boeing and the Western European aircraft building alliance Airbus. The Americans proceed from the fact that the future belongs to high-speed, highly economical airliners of medium passenger capacity, which allow organizing non-stop air communication between many cities of the world, bypassing large airports, since they are often overloaded. Europeans are betting on the A-380 superliner, which carries more than 500 passengers per flight with the highest level of comfort.

Picture 1

Only the largest airports in the world will be able to receive such aircraft, from where passengers will have to get to their final destination on smaller aircraft. Based on these prerequisites, leading aircraft manufacturing companies form a line of aircraft (AC). Thus, the Boeing company is finishing flight tests and is preparing for serial production the 787 model, capable of transporting from 200 to 300 people for a record 16,000 km. And Airbus showed airlines the super-capacity double-deck A380, capable of carrying up to 550 people. At the same time, the European manufacturer does not discount the demand for ultra-long-range aircraft, therefore, in defiance of Boeing and its 787 model, it creates a competing A350 aircraft. It is impossible to expect that liners of medium passenger capacity (according to the American model) will fly to every airport, based on the capabilities of airports and the availability of passenger traffic. Most likely, such planes will be able to deliver passengers to regional airports, from which passengers, depending on the distance, will fly to the final destination by local airlines or be delivered by road. Thus, in both directions of development, there is still a need for hub airports, the capacities and characteristics of which depend on the passenger flow and the type of aircraft used. Do not forget that even with the American model in the US itself, the world's largest hub airports are successfully operating, for example, Atlanta, Chicago, Los Angeles, Newark, Houston and others with a passenger flow of several tens of millions of people per year each.

Features of air transportation systems "point-to-point" and "hub`n`spoke"

Hub `n`spoke:

Far fewer routes are needed to serve the network. This is due to the fact that the number of pairs in the P2P network increases to a greater extent than the growth of nodes.

With fewer routes and the same number of aircraft, airlines can schedule more frequent flights on each route and take full advantage of the capacity of each aircraft.

Centralization of operations in the hub allows economies of scale.

Minimizes connections and travel time. In addition, the smaller the baggage transfer, the less likely the baggage will be lost.

No interdependence of flights and nodes - a flight delay or a closed airport will not significantly affect other flight schedules. There is no single point of failure, and delays are unlikely to affect the entire system.

Table 1. Comparative characteristics of "point-to-point" and "hub`n`spoke" systems

A hub airport is, in fact, a transit and interchange airport. Transportation through the largest foreign hubs is organized according to the principle of "hubs" and "spokes". At the beginning, passengers are collected at the hub airport (hub) on mainline, interregional and intercontinental routes, then these passengers are sent by regional and local routes (spokes) to their final destinations, where it is unprofitable for the mainline carrier to fly. Aviation statistics take into account two types of transit passengers: direct transit passengers and transfer passengers. The first ones are passengers of a flight that makes a temporary stop at the airport, for example, to refuel the aircraft carrying them or to board (disembark) part of the passengers. In this case, the flight number does not change, although the aircraft can be replaced. In this case, the carrier must pay the airport for servicing passengers who spend their stopover time at the terminal. A transfer passenger is a passenger who transfers at a given airport from a flight of one airline to another flight of the same or another airline (“transfer”). Such a passenger may have a single transportation document valid for the entire route, but the flight numbers necessarily differ. For the service of this passenger, they pay twice: for the flight on which he arrived, and the flight on which he will depart. Therefore, from the point of view of the economy of the airport, a single stay at the airport of a transfer passenger gives the effect of servicing two passengers. And if this is a passenger of international flights, then in the jargon of aviators he is called a “fat passenger”. Naturally, this is the most desired passenger at the airport, and there is a fierce competition between airports to attract him and the same cargo.