Features of the Russian air transportation market. Modern Trends in the Development of the World Air Cargo Market Gurieva, Madina Taymurazovna

International passenger air transportation market

For the global aviation industry, 2016 was quite a successful year: according to IATA, the growth of passenger traffic in the world compared to 2015 amounted to 5.9%. The volume of passenger traffic on scheduled flights increased by 5.7% to 3.8 billion passengers. The percentage of passenger seat occupancy in the global industry, according to preliminary estimates, amounted to 80.2%, which is 0.2 p.p. lower than in 2015.

In 2016, transportation in the Middle East region developed most dynamically. The growth in passenger turnover compared to 2015 amounted to 10.8%.

The second place in terms of growth rates is occupied by the market of the Asia-Pacific region, where passenger turnover increased by 8.9%.

Passenger traffic in the European Region increased by 3.8%. The main driver of the European market was the growth of international traffic. This dynamics is due to the increase in carrying capacity by 3.8%, as well as a decrease in revenue rates due to the development of the budget transportation segment and lower fuel costs.

The North American market showed a 3.2% increase in passenger traffic, driven by strong economic growth in the United States of America and positive traffic dynamics in the domestic market.

Industry revenue, according to IATA, decreased by 2.4% compared to the previous year and amounted to $701 billion. Traditionally, most of them were income from passenger traffic- 71.9%. The decline in revenues was due to cuts in jet fuel costs, which allowed air carriers to cut revenue rates without compromising profitability.

According to preliminary estimates by IATA, the net profit of the industry in 2016 is $35.6 billion, which is the highest figure in the industry over the past ten years.

Passenger traffic on regular flights of the global industry
BILLION PEOPLE

Growth rates of passenger turnover and marginal passenger turnover of the global industry

Russian market of passenger air transportation

In 2016, the total volume of the Russian market, including foreign carriers, decreased by 4.1% compared to 2015 and amounted to 102.8 million passengers. In particular, 88.6 million passengers were transported by Russian airlines, which is 3.8% less than a year earlier. Passenger turnover Russian air carriers decreased by 5.0% and amounted to 215.6 billion passenger-kilometers (pkm). At the same time, the volume of carrying capacity decreased by 6.6% to 265.8 billion seat-kilometres (kkm), as a result of which the percentage of passenger seat occupancy of Russian airlines increased by 1.4 percentage points, to 81.1%.

In the reporting period, factors such as a decrease in the purchasing power of the population caused by the depreciation of the national currency, restrictions on flights to Turkey, Egypt, and Ukraine introduced at the end of 2015, and a corresponding decrease in sales in the outbound tourism market, continued to influence.

These factors determined the decline in the tourist (charter) segment. According to TCH, the volume of charter passenger traffic in 2016 decreased by 27.0% compared to the previous year, including international charter flights decreased by 39.8%. As a result, the number of passengers carried on international routes (including flights operated by foreign airlines) decreased by 15.1% in 2016 compared to 2015 and amounted to 46.4 million people.

The domestic transportation segment maintained a positive trend: the number of passengers increased by 7.3% compared to the previous year and amounted to 56.4 million people, due to the development of domestic tourism, including due to the reorientation of outbound tourism flows. The average passenger seat occupancy per domestic airlines amounted to 79.5%, which is 2.9 p.p. higher than in 2015.

Passenger traffic in the Russian market (including foreign airlines)
MILLION PEOPLE

Source: TCH, Rosaviatsia

Passenger traffic in the Russian market (excluding foreign airlines)
MILLION PEOPLE

Source: Rosaviatsiya

Passenger turnover in the Russian market (excluding foreign airlines)
BLN PKM

Source: Rosaviatsiya

Maximum passenger turnover in the Russian market (excluding foreign airlines)
BILLION KKM

Source: Rosaviatsiya

Dynamics of the percentage of passenger seat occupancy in the Russian market (excluding foreign airlines)
%

During 2016, the volume of air transportation in the Russian market was declining, but in the fourth quarter the decline stopped and passenger traffic increased by 10.6% compared to the previous year. The change in the trend is associated with the effect of a low comparison base, with the weakening of the impact of negative factors affecting the development of air transportation (including the stabilization of the exchange rate) and the correction of revenue rates in the industry, which, together with the indicated effect of the exchange rate, determined the reduction in the ruble cost of a trip for passengers.

Aeroflot Group is one of the key growth drivers of the Russian air transportation market, providing transport accessibility and population mobility. Excluding Aeroflot Group's passenger traffic, which showed positive dynamics, the market decreased by 12.5% ​​compared to 2015.

Dynamics of growth rates 1 of passenger traffic of Russian and foreign airlines in 2016

Source: TCH, Rosaviatsia

Dynamics of growth rates 1 of passenger traffic of Aeroflot Group and the Russian market in 2016

Source: TCH, Rosaviatsia

Source: TCH, Rosaviatsia

The Russian air transportation market is highly consolidated - the five largest players account for 70.4% of passenger traffic. Aeroflot Group is the undisputed leader in this market. At the end of 2016, Aeroflot Group's share amounted to 42.3% of the total volume of traffic in the Russian market, including transportation by foreign airlines (36.7% in 2015). The increase in the market share of Aeroflot Group was observed throughout the reporting period, with the largest increase observed in the 1st and 2nd quarters.

The growth of Aeroflot Group's market share is driven by an efficient business model and strategy that determined the Group's resilience to external economic and market factors. The increase in the Group's share is also associated with the redistribution of the shares of Transaero Airlines (it ceased operations in October 2015) and foreign carriers that are reducing their presence in the Russian market. Aeroflot Group's growth in the market share was additionally influenced by activity in the segment of international transit traffic, primarily between Europe and Asia. Excluding international transit, Aeroflot Group's net market share in 2016 was 40.0%. The definition of the net market is a more correct reflection of the market share due to the fact that passengers traveling between points in Europe and Asia with a transfer in Moscow are not related to the Russian market, and the very fact of attracting these passengers has a positive economic effect not only for the company, but also for the Russian economy as a whole.

Aeroflot Group's closest competitors are S7 Group (12.8%), UTair Group (6.8%), Ural Airlines» (6.3%). The share of foreign carriers in the Russian market was 13.9%.

Dynamics of Aeroflot Group’s share in the Russian market by passenger traffic, including foreign companies

22% of the world's air traffic is concentrated on just 300 routes. Each of them transports more than 1 million passengers annually. Another 69% of all world air transportation is concentrated on routes with a volume of about 100 thousand passengers. in year. This data is provided by Amadeus based on the analysis of data from the Amadeus Air Traffic Travel Intelligence program.

From 2011 to 2012, the volume of world passenger traffic increased by 5%. Asia has become the fastest growing and most competitive air travel market. The number of passengers served in this region increased by 9% over the year; Following Asia in terms of growth rates is the Latin American region, where passenger traffic grew by 6% over the year (Table 1).

However, despite the growth of the market, air transportation continues to concentrate on a certain number of destinations. 22% of the world's air traffic is concentrated on just 300 routes, and the 1000 most popular routes provide 40% of all world air transportation. However, 35% of air travel in Europe and North America are provided by low-intensity routes with flows of less than 100 thousand passengers. in year.

The most intensive routes in terms of passenger traffic were routes within Asia - this region is home to seven out of ten of all world intensive destinations. The Jeju-Seoul route (South Korea) remains the most popular. The list of the most intensive routes for 2012 included many of the destinations marked a year earlier, although there were some changes. For example, the Beijing-Shanghai (China) route has moved from 7th to 4th place over the year. And the Asian route Sapporo-Tokyo (Japan) gave way to the second place to the South American route Rio de Janeiro-Sao Paulo. A newcomer to the list of the ten most intensive routes was the Okinawa-Tokyo route, which ranked 9th (Table 2). In Asia, 85% of air traffic is concentrated on intensive routes, where more than 100,000 passengers are transported. in year.

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Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation

St. Petersburg State Polytechnic University

Institute of Engineering and Economics

Department of "World and Regional Economy"

course project

discipline: "Theory of industrial markets"

on the topic: "Analysis of the industry civil air transportation and assessment of the sectoral policy of the state"

Saint Petersburg 2014

INTRODUCTION

CONCLUSION

BIBLIOGRAPHY

INTRODUCTION

Civil air transportation is one of the core industries in the passenger transportation industry and one of the few sectors that can make a significant contribution to economic growth in Russia. Exclusively importance air transport for Russia is due to the specifics of the country - large territory and the low density of the land transport network. In regions such as North European Russia, Siberia and the Far East, air transport is often the main mode of transport.

Air transportation is one of the most dynamically developing industries. Air transport in the volume of transportation by main modes of transport occupies more than a third of all passenger traffic and a significant part of cargo transportation.

The purpose of the work is an analysis of the industry based on the study of the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the industry, as well as the forms and instruments of state participation in the field of civil air transportation as a fundamental industry complex for the Russian economy.

Based on the above goals, tasks works are as follows:

* analysis of the civil air transportation industry based on the study of the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the industry;

* study of the effectiveness of government policy in the civil aviation industry.

* assessment of the level of development of the passenger air transportation market in the Russian Federation based on the work done.

civil air transportation market

1. ANALYSIS OF THE CIVIL AIR TRANSPORTATION INDUSTRY IN RUSSIA

1.1 Product and geographical boundaries of the product market

Speaking of geographical boundaries ah industry of air transportation, it is important to note that they are made all over the world and in various directions. But in this paper, domestic transportation (regional and local) will be considered.

To find out the geographical boundaries of the market, it is necessary to know the location of the airports from which flights are carried out for the transportation of citizens within the country. Below are the main airports in the country:

Airport Chita

· Vladivostok Airport;

· Pulkovo;

· Kazan;

· Domodedovo;

· Emelyanovo;

· Terrible;

· Khabarovsk (New);

· Kurumoch;

Sheremetyevo;

Vnukovo, etc.

Given the specifics of many regions, it is necessary to say about the remoteness of the territories from the central part of Russia, severe climatic conditions, lack of railways and highways, poor infrastructure development, as a result of which it is extremely difficult to get to the airport.

In the regional air transportation market, the object of sale and purchase is passenger transportation services, which, first of all, have the traditional properties of a service, such as intangibility, inability to accumulate, the inseparability of the consumption process from the production process of the service, and the variability of the quality of the service. In addition, air transportation is characterized by specific features, which include high speed and regularity of flights, high cross-country ability. aircraft, flight safety, etc. These features form the advantages of air communication in comparison with land modes of transport. The scope of regional air transportation is extensive and the demand for relocation services can be divided into constant: demand for monitoring, control, intelligence services; and fickle: demand from retail and corporate customers who feel the need to relocate themselves.

When determining the commodity boundaries of the market under study, it should be noted that the analysis is carried out for the market of services for the transportation of passengers by air transport on local and regional airlines in Russia. Consequently, the commodity boundaries of the market are formed by the range of air routes for the transportation of passengers, carried out only within Russia within the framework of regular and charter flights.

1.2 Volume of the commodity market, determination of the composition and shares of economic entities in the market

The sellers in the market are carrier airlines. The processes of active concentration of the passenger transportation market by the largest air carriers began in 1998-1999. Almost 90% of the total volume of this type of service is provided by 30 airlines. At the same time, five of them (Aeroflot, Transaero, Pulkovo, Krasnoyarsk Airlines and Siberia) account for more than half of passenger traffic in the country.

In 2013, the share of passenger transportation on international airlines in the total passenger traffic was 54%. Compared to 1990, the share of passengers on international routes increased by 1.8 times.

Buyers in the air transportation market are an unlimited range of individuals and legal entities using the services provided by carriers.

The market segmentation results demonstrate the presence of four segments: business travelers and VIP passengers; passengers traveling for personal purposes (leisure, travel, flight due to unforeseen circumstances); consumers ordering shipping and control and monitoring services; travel and ticketing agencies acting as buyers.

Organizations that provide aircraft equipment and machinery, fuel, fuels and lubricants, financial, information, insurance, maintenance and other services act as suppliers in the air transportation market. The organization and maintenance of the market infrastructure is carried out by airports, dispatch services and other participants providing air navigation services.

Table 1 Distribution of passenger traffic and passenger turnover by directions

Table 2 Distribution of domestic passenger traffic

1.3 Concentration of sellers in the market

In its structure, the market is close to an oligopoly, that is, most of it is controlled by several large companies. Today's leaders are represented by large Russian companies, Russian and foreign holdings. In addition, there are many small companies in the regions, but there is a tendency to reduce small companies.

The market under consideration is a seller's market, so the influence of consumers is still small. Assessing the risk of the emergence of new competitors, it is worth noting, looking ahead, that this market has the potential for growth and today is an untapped niche, therefore, in the near future, firstly, competition on operated routes may increase, and secondly, it is possible expansion of the network of regional routes. The profitability of regional passenger traffic does not exceed 1% per year.

The power of suppliers in the local air transportation market: suppliers of fuel, air navigation, service, airport services occupy predominantly monopoly positions in the market, therefore, their power is great. As of October 21, 2013, there were 121 airlines operating commercial passenger services in Russia. Since 2000, the number of air carriers has decreased by 2.4 times.

It is known that in the civil aviation industry there is a competitive struggle between several major "giants". For example, Aeroflot (which is a natural monopoly, the very first and largest airline in the world), Transaero, Siberia (S7 Airlines), UTair (UTair), Ural Airlines, Vim-Avia.

Table 3 Turnover and flow

The share of these companies in terms of the number of kilometers that their aircraft flew is 39%, 22%, 9%, 8%, 4%, 1%, respectively. Therefore, the coefficient of market concentration by the number of kilometers: CR(6) = 99%, Herfindahl-Hirschman industry index: IHH= 2167. The share of these companies in terms of the number of passengers carried is 39%, 14%, 12%, 11%, 5%, 2%, respectively. Therefore, the market concentration ratio by the number of passengers is: CR( 6) = 83%, Herfindahl-Hirschman industry index: IHH = 2011.

It can be concluded that the segment of domestic passenger air transportation is characterized by a high degree of concentration of market participants with a tendency to reduce the number of operators. From the received data and conclusions from them, we can conclude that the market continues to consolidate.

1.4 Typology of industry market organizations

Institutionally, the air transportation market can be characterized as follows: five main categories of market participants have been identified: service sellers; service buyers; suppliers and participants organizing the market infrastructure; organization of regulation and control of the activities of air carriers. Today, the world air transport system has about 600 air transport companies. By ownership, airlines are classified into: public, private and corporate.

State-owned airlines are former socialist countries, most airlines in developing countries, as well as individual airlines in developed countries that were founded by the state or nationalized: british airways (Great Britain), Air France(France), KLM(Holland), etc. A number of airlines are international associations owned jointly by several states. For example, a Scandinavian airline SAS belongs to Sweden, Denmark and Norway.

Private airlines include airlines owned by one owner or family - this is a small number of small airlines, as well as the so-called computer airlines and air taxis. Of the large and medium-sized private airlines, it is known, for example, UTA(France).

Corporate companies are those whose owners are formally joint-stock companies.

According to the nature of the flights, airlines are divided into:

internal,

international,

Mixed.

Domestic airlines operate flights only within their own countries, international - only in international air traffic (purely international airlines are quite rare), mixed airlines - both international and domestic flights.

According to the range and direction of flights, airlines are classified into mainline, regional, local and computer airlines.

The mainline airlines operate both international and domestic transportation over distances of 3000 km or more, such as transatlantic, trans-Asian and other interregional air transportation.

Regional airlines carry out both international and domestic flights over a distance of no more than 3,000 km. Regional transportation includes intra-European, intra-African transportation, etc.

Local airlines are, as a rule, airlines that carry out transportation on domestic airlines with a length of not more than 1000 km.

Computer, or interline, airlines operate regular shuttle services between nearby settlements ranging from 100 to 500 km. For a distance of less than 100 km, flights are carried out only by helicopters to hard-to-reach areas, as well as by special air taxis.

According to the type of main transportation, airlines are divided into passenger, cargo and mixed.

Passenger airlines operate aircraft equipped to carry passengers and carry cargo and mail in dedicated cargo holds. In addition, convertible aircraft are increasingly being introduced into operation, which (partially or completely, depending on the need for transportation) can be quickly converted from passenger to cargo, and vice versa. Therefore, most passenger airlines can be classified as a mixed type of airlines. Cargo airlines operate only cargo transportation on specially equipped aircraft. Most airlines are mixed and operate all types of transportation.

By type of operations, airlines are classified into regular and charter.

Regular airlines operate flights according to the established schedule on airlines strictly defined by the government of the country or by intergovernmental agreements. They may also operate additional, charter and special flights on a non-scheduled basis. Charter airlines perform only non-scheduled air freight transportation based on special contracts between carriers and customers.

According to the size of the aircraft fleet and the volume of traffic, as well as other technical and economic indicators, airlines can be classified into large, medium and small.

1.5 Characterization and evaluation of entry and exit barriers

Market entry barriers are usually understood as any technological, administrative, economic factors that prevent new firms from entering the market in a fairly short period of time. Based on information obtained from thematic sources, a classification of barriers in the passenger air transportation market in Russia was compiled (Table 4).

Table 4 Classification of barriers in the industry

When considering the likelihood of new carriers entering the market, it is advisable to pay attention to assessing the barriers to entry into the industry. Due to the fact that this market concentrates a large number of subjects, but at the same time, consumer demand for inexpensive and fast transportation is not satisfied, its development can go in two ways, requiring government intervention.

The first way is to stimulate the development of the market and create a system of preferences that allows airlines to modify their business models and diversify profitably into various market niches.

The second way is to slow down the development of the market in its current form by reducing the number of small airlines, of which there are a large number.

The proposal being considered by the state to distinguish between mainline and regional transportation, based on the system federal districts, which threatens to squeeze out small regional carriers from the Moscow direction, indicates the implementation of the second path. Added to this is the draft amendments to the “Regulations on Licensing the Transportation of Passengers by Air”, which contains requirements for the presence of at least 10 aircraft with a capacity of more than 55 seats for regular transportation and at least 5 - for charter.

Thus, the listed set of measures creates barriers not only for new companies to enter the market, but also contributes to the redistribution of passenger traffic in favor of the largest carriers and the exit of less competitive companies from the market. In the future, this can only lead to a decrease in transport accessibility for a part of the population and further degradation of the airfield network, since the airlines remaining on the market are unlikely to prefer to master completely new business models and types of aircraft.

1.6 Analysis of the industry market structure

It is necessary to study the structure of the civil air transportation market, for which we will use the "Structure - behavior - result" paradigm. The paradigm is based on the idea that the result of the functioning of the industry depends on the behavior of sellers and buyers, which, in turn, is determined by the structure of the industry. The structure of the industry depends on the operating conditions: technology, demand, etc.

The sellers in the market are carrier airlines. Buyers in the air transportation market are an unlimited range of individuals and legal entities using the services provided by carriers. In its structure, the market is close to an oligopoly, that is, most of it is controlled by several large companies. Today's leaders are represented by large Russian companies, Russian and foreign holdings, the segment of domestic passenger air transportation is characterized by a high degree of concentration of market participants with a tendency to reduce the number of operators.

Due to the fact that this market concentrates a large number of players, but at the same time, consumer demand for inexpensive and fast transportation is not satisfied, its development can go in two ways, requiring government intervention. The first way is to stimulate the development of the market and create a system of preferences that allows airlines to modify their business models and diversify profitably into various market niches. The second way is to slow down the development of the market in its current form by reducing the number of small airlines, of which there are a large number. Thus, the listed set of measures creates barriers not only for new companies to enter the market, but also contributes to the redistribution of passenger traffic in favor of the largest carriers and the exit of less competitive companies from the market.

It is important that the first priority for air carriers is to purchase wear-resistant vessels, in good condition. As in any business system, the airline receives resources at the input: material, financial, labor, information, the output is products - air transport services (passenger-kilometers for passenger transportation, ton-kilometers for cargo transportation). To create air transport products, an airline must have a fleet of aircraft. The number and nomenclature of the aircraft fleet should correspond to the real solvent consumer demand. It also depends on the chosen field of activity - the target market, geographical direction and degree of development of the airline's air lines network and a number of other parameters. At the same time, the activity of any airline will be effective only if the available carrying capacity of the aircraft fleet can be used with a high utilization factor for the maximum payload of aircraft (within 0.6 - 0.7) and with a sufficiently high average annual flight hours for the average airplane.

The solution of this problem largely depends on the organizational structure of the airline and, above all, on how effectively its three main functional subsystems will be involved: flight, technical and commercial exploitation.

At the same time, the flight operation subsystem must have a highly professional flight crew that ensures flight safety; the subsystem of technical operation must ensure the serviceability of aircraft and its trouble-free operation; the commercial operation subsystem is responsible for the high quality of the organization of services for passengers and shippers and commercial work aimed at attracting potential customers and selling transportation.

Speaking about the industry, it is worth saying that the processes of consolidation and the creation of holdings have led to the fact that the bulk of air transportation in Russia is carried out within the framework of vertically integrated megastructures. These include: Aeroflot, Transaero, Yutair, Ural Airlines. The process of consolidation of ownership in the industry is accompanied by the formation of strategic alliances and the search for new forms of cooperation and organizational cooperation.

The structure of the air passenger transportation market in Russia is characterized by the following features. Almost all the players in the aviation passenger transportation market - both leaders and outsiders - "withdrew" from Aeroflot - Soviet Airlines, the country's only airline during the Soviet era. After the collapse of the only state-owned air carrier, 393 airlines were formed, the formation of which, as a rule, took place on a territorial basis: on the basis of former territorial offices civil aviation or on the basis of joint aviation units, which predetermined, respectively, their positions in the structure of the air transportation market.

Route networks, base airports, and an air fleet were created.

The Russian air transportation market is a good example of a market with discrete competition, since entry into individual air route networks (spatial market segments) is difficult due to the rather low level of substitution between airports for airlines and consumers.

An analysis of the Russian aviation industry showed that in a number of regions a single ownership structure "airport - airline" or affiliation of these structures is common. This gives us the right to consider the characteristics of a natural monopoly, which is the core of this structure - the airport.

Airports in many ways are enterprises of the infrastructure industry. An airport concentrates relative monopoly power in a certain area. At best, two airports can be accessible to residents of a large urban area. Often due to availability constraints free territories and air traffic, a single airport becomes available. Airport operations bring and depend on network effects: airports are central nodes in the network where transfers to other flights can take place.

Traditionally, a natural monopoly has been understood in terms of the technological approach, that is, as a firm whose production function exhibits positive returns to scale at any output. That is, the criterion for the existence of a natural monopoly was the decreasing average costs characteristic of all infrastructure enterprises. Landing technology of modern aircraft makes providing air traffic and maintenance of runways by close complements. The use of some technologies provides for economies of scale or diversity. This is true in particular for airports. The size of each new terminal and the number of entry slots it determines available to airlines is the cost per passenger. Thus, when building large terminals, there are economies of scale until revenues start to decline due to the increase in passenger traffic. If one such terminal can satisfy the entire volume of demand, there is no room for competitors. You can also talk about savings from diversity: the same runways can be used by air carriers for both transporting passengers and delivering goods. It becomes possible to distribute airport runways more rationally, depending on the time of day. In these situations, large firms (especially if they are in a dominant position) can offer services at lower prices than their smaller competitors, winning the fight for customers. However, in an environment of increasing economies of scale, regulation may be needed to curb those advantages of firms that lead to increased market power. Market power is used by firms to charge inflated prices resulting in suboptimal resource allocation. These advantages are based on the asymmetric distribution of information under conditions of uncertainty.

1.7 Main economic characteristics industries

Current trends in the air transportation market

In 2008, oil prices reached $140 per barrel. Under such conditions, the fuel component of airlines' operating expenses rose to 50-60%, which caused a significant reduction in the profitability of airlines around the world. In the 1st quarter of 2009, the price of Brent oil fluctuated around $40-45 per barrel. The fall in world oil prices led to a decrease in world prices for jet fuel by 40-50%, by 20-30% in Russia. The fuel component of airlines' operating expenses fell to 30-40%, but this did not give a positive effect in the face of declining demand for air travel from the population. By the end of the 2nd quarter of 2009, the price of Brent oil reached $70 per barrel. As a result, jet fuel prices jumped by 8-12%. On average, according to the Federal Air Transport Agency, in Russia, a ton of aviation kerosene as of July 20 costs 19.17 thousand rubles, which is 15% less than in January of this year, and 7.8% less than in January 2008.

Dynamics of air transportation volumes

According to IATA, in the first half of 2009, the decline in global passenger air travel was 7.6%. The reduction in air traffic was observed in all regions of the world, with the exception of the Middle East, where the growth was 7.14%. The largest drop was recorded in Russia - 18%, the Asia-Pacific region - 12% and Africa - 9.2%. According to the IATA forecast, in 2009 the reduction of the world volume of passenger air transportation will be 5.7%. According to TCH data, the decrease in air passenger traffic by Russian airlines in January-June 2009 amounted to 18%. According to the forecast of the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation, in 2009 air traffic is expected to fall by 10%, according to other experts - by 20-30%.

Airline capacity

The decline in demand for air transportation is forcing airlines to decommission their excess fleet of aircraft (AC) and, above all, old inefficient aircraft types. Capacity reduction is a temporary measure that airlines resort to to maintain profitability. However, competition for passengers does not allow airlines to respond adequately to the decline in demand. As a result, according to IATA forecasts, 2009 will be generally unprofitable for the global air transportation industry. According to the OAG, as of May 2009, the world's airlines have reduced their capacity by about 3% in terms of aircraft capacity and by 5% in terms of number of flights.

Dynamics of airline profitability and bankruptcy

According to experts, the total loss of the world's airlines in 2008 amounted to about $10 billion, and in 2009 it is projected at $9 billion. In 2008, about 30 airlines around the world went bankrupt. At the same time, according to Ascend, in 2008 the number of airlines that entered the market - 54, is approximately equal to the number of airlines that left the market - 51. In Russia, 8 air carriers went bankrupt in 2008, with a total number of about 170. According to forecasts by the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation, in 2009 about 20% of Russian airlines may lose the right to operate flights due to debts to airports, tax authorities, air navigation services. In both cases, the change in the number of airlines in the market is largely determined by consolidation processes.

Consolidation in the industry - association of airlines

Consolidation allows air carriers to get rid of excessive competition, optimize the route network, the company's organizational structure, the structure of ground services, and strengthen their market positions. To do this, airlines continue to enter into code-share agreements, acquire bankrupt air carriers, and enter into alliances. In Russia, consolidation processes are stimulated by the state as part of the ongoing policy to reduce and consolidate airlines. Currently, under the auspices of the state corporation Rostekhnologii, the Rosavia airline is being created, to which the assets of 11 airlines will be transferred (including the bankrupt AiRUnion and Dalavia, as well as the State Customs Committee of Russia, Atlant-Soyuz, Vladivostokavia, Saratov Airlines).

The volume of the market for deliveries and orders for aircraft and aircraft engines

2007 marked the peak of the boom in passenger aircraft orders that began in 2003. The global economic crisis is forcing airlines to adjust their short-term plans to upgrade and modernize their aircraft fleet. According to the results of 2008, the reduction in the volume of orders for passenger aircraft amounted to approximately 45%. According to the ACAS database, in 2009, orders for passenger aircraft fell by 5.5 times compared to the same period in 2008. Nevertheless, according to the forecasts of most leading aircraft manufacturers (Boeing, Airbus, Rolls-Royce), in the long term, in the next twenty years, the average annual growth in air traffic will be 4-5%, the global volume of passenger air traffic will increase by 2.5 times. By 2011, more than 4,000 units of new passenger aircraft will be delivered to the world's airline fleets, and by 2028 - about 29,000.

Forecasts for the development of the air transportation market

In the next five years, the market will grow, but at a slow pace on average by 3% per year, according to experts, due to economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region and Latin America. In the long term - in the next 20 years, according to the forecasts of most aircraft manufacturers Boeing, Airbus, CFMI, the annual increase in air traffic will be 5%, the total volume of air traffic will increase by 2.5 times. The average global passenger seat occupancy rate will reach 80%.

In conclusion to the first part of the work, several conclusions can be drawn about the characteristic features of the civil air transportation industry in Russia.

They lie in the fact that the commodity boundaries of the market form an assortment of air routes for the transportation of passengers, carried out only within Russia within the framework of regular and charter flights. The segment of domestic passenger air transportation is characterized by a high degree of concentration of market participants with a tendency to reduce the number of operators. From the received data and conclusions from them, we can conclude that the market continues to consolidate.

Also, the classification and typology of companies in the industry market was revealed (clause 1.4.). The following classifications of companies in the industry were considered: by institutional affiliation; by the nature of the flights; by range and direction of flights; by type of main transportation; by type of operations and by the size of the aircraft fleet and traffic volume. Each classification was analyzed separately, taking into account the characteristic features.

In addition, entry and exit barriers to the civil aviation industry (both strategic and non-strategic barriers) were considered. Based on the analysis of entry/exit barriers to the industry, two possible and most effective options (ways) for state intervention in the industry were identified to facilitate the process of entering the market. (clause 1.5.)

In conclusion, the main economic characteristics of the industry (the dynamics of air transportation volumes; the carrying capacity of airlines; the dynamics of airline profitability and bankruptcy; consolidation in the industry; the volume of the market for the supply and orders of aircraft and aircraft engines) were studied and forecasts for the development of the Russian air transportation market were formed. (clause 1.7.)

2. EVALUATION OF THE EFFICIENCY OF THE STATE POLICY IN THE INDUSTRY

2.1 Goals and content of the sectoral policy of the state

IN in large numbers Russian regions, aviation is socially significant, since it is the only mode of transport that provides year-round transport accessibility.

However, low population density in remote areas leads to low intensity of passenger traffic. This, in turn, determines the high cost of air transportation, due to the high unit costs of maintaining the airfield network and the use of small-capacity aircraft.

The cost of air transportation in most cases exceeds the ability of the population to pay for air transport services. Therefore, local transportation is not profitable on the routes of the regional and local importance there is practically no competition.

The main instrument of state support for the development of the domestic air transportation market is the program of subsidizing regional air transportation.

The main directions of this program are:

Current state subsidy program

air transportation for the period up to 2020 provides for a total funding of 5 billion rubles. In the period 2013-2017. the annual amount of financing will be 750 million rubles:

450 million rubles - subsidizing air transportation in the Far East, Siberian, Northwestern and Ural regions;

300 million rubles - subsidizing air transportation in the Volga Federal District (subject to co-financing from the regions).

According to the Ministry of Transport of Russia, the implementation of programs to subsidize regional air transportation has already yielded results. For 9 months of 2013, the growth in the number of passengers on subsidized airlines amounted to 160%.

The Ministry of Transport of Russia also expects that the implementation of the program will contribute to the active modernization of the regional aviation fleet.

In particular, it is planned that already in 2013 airlines will purchase 36-40 aircraft of various sizes.

2.2 Efficiency and development prospects

In July 2013, the Government of the Russian Federation approved a roadmap for the development of regional air transportation until 2020.

The road map provides that by 2015 the volume of passenger traffic on domestic routes will increase to 45 million, on regional routes - up to 6-7 million passengers. At the same time, the number of regional lines will increase to 1500.

Target indicators for the implementation of activities road map until 2020 there will be the following.

The aviation mobility coefficient of the population of Russia (the ratio of the number of passengers transported by Russian airlines per year to the population of the Russian Federation) will be 1, which corresponds to the total departures from the airports of the Russian Federation in 2020 in the amount of 138.5 million people.

The number of regional air links will increase to 2,000 airlines (an increase of 70% compared to 2012).

The main implementation mechanism is a reduction to the level of 15% of the cost of airport services for regional air transportation (currently this figure is 35%).

By 2020, almost all regional aircraft will need to be replaced. The available carrying capacity of the current fleet will be halved by 2020, while the required carrying capacity of the fleet will have to increase by 90%. This determines the significant needs of airlines in the further renewal and expansion of the fleet of regional aircraft.

Taking into account the write-off of obsolete types of aircraft due to the development of resources and their loss of competitiveness, the need for the supply of passenger aircraft to Russian airlines is estimated at 1030-1200 aircraft in the period up to 2020. Demand is expected for aircraft of various passenger capacity classes, which will be satisfied by aircraft of both domestic and foreign production.

The absence in Russia of serial production of a number of classes of aircraft determines the continued significant need for Russian air transport in the use of foreign aircraft. According to forecasts, in 2020 the share of foreign aircraft in the Russian commercial fleet of passenger regional aircraft is estimated at 60%. These estimates assume the successful implementation of Russian programs for the production of modern aircraft, the share of which in deliveries to the passenger fleet should increase from today's 10% to a promising 40%.

It should also be noted that in order to fulfill the projected volume of traffic, the flight crew of airlines, starting from 2013, must annually replenish with another 370-510 pilots in addition to the planned release of aircraft pilots from educational institutions of the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation. And in the coming years - and to a greater extent.

On this moment in Russia there is no clear concept of building a system of regulatory and legal framework for the regulation of aviation activities. Clear regulation of any activity is the most important state task in the field of legislation.

The specific activity of civil aviation, in which, along with the economic feasibility of air transportation, their safety must be ensured, it also requires a special construction of systems and its management at all levels. The change in the economic structure and the decentralization of the management of the economic mechanism by state bodies requires the introduction of a normative method for managing the functioning of the country's air transport.

The normative method of managing state regulatory bodies involves the creation of an effective legislative framework and regulatory documentation governing the activities of air transport, in which the main criterion is to ensure the safety of life and health of passengers, which, ultimately, is determined by the safety of flights in civil aviation. Transitional period from the administrative system to legal regulation is the most complex and fraught with the condition of uncertainty (which can cause loss of control over the reliable functioning of the entire air transport system). In Russian legislation, there is already a law of the Russian Federation "On the protection of consumer rights" and " Air Code RF”, which require state regulatory authorities and the operator to ensure the safety of life and health of people, which should be supported by the introduction of standardization and certification of air transport facilities and aircraft operation processes. The absence of state standards that regulate the production and provision of civil aviation flights, and, as a result, the introduction of standard operating procedures in civil aviation enterprises, makes the activity of an aircraft operator in the transportation of air passengers illegal.

Thus, the existence of an effective regulatory framework is necessary condition normative method for managing the reliability of air transport operation.

The civil air transportation market, despite its social significance and state support, is stagnating due to the low level of solvent demand. The problem of ensuring the development of regional and local aviation ( small aviation) is complex, is interdepartmental in nature and requires coordinated legal, technical, organizational and financial actions in a number of areas that take into account the interests of various sectors of the economy. To solve it, it seems appropriate to develop an action plan that defines the main directions of state policy in this area for the next 10-15 years.

Preservation of strategic innovation priorities for the development of the Russian economy determines the stability of long-term goals for the development of air transport. The passenger turnover of Russian airlines may reach 290-360 billion km in 2020, and reach 510-625 billion km by 2030, including due to the entry of Russian airlines into new market transit air transportation through the territory of Russia. The optimistic version of the forecast assumes that in the coming years, high growth rates of demand for air transportation will continue (at the level of 7-10%).

In conclusion to the second part of the work, several conclusions can be drawn about the characteristic features of the sectoral policy in the field of civil air transportation in Russia.

They lie in the fact that the main instrument of state support for the development of the domestic air transportation market is the program of subsidizing regional air transportation.

Namely:

Subsidizing federal state-owned enterprises created on the basis of airfields of regional and local significance;

Subsidizing airfields located in areas Far North and areas equated to them;

Subsidizing air transportation of passengers from the Far East and Siberia to the European part of the country and vice versa, and from the Kaliningrad region to the European part of the country and vice versa;

Subsidizing regional (intersubjective) air transportation of passengers in the Northwestern, Siberian, Urals and Far Eastern federal districts;

Subsidizing aircraft leasing for regional and local air transportation.

Also, the effectiveness and development prospects were identified. The main economic characteristics of the industry are given. And as a result, an analysis of this industry was carried out.

CONCLUSION

In this project, the civil air transportation market was studied, and the state policy in the field of civil air transportation was identified and evaluated.

The study was conducted on the basis of available information on the considered industry market in accordance with the goal and objectives within and in accordance with the content of the discipline.

The analysis of the industry is carried out based on the study of the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the industry, as well as the forms and instruments of state participation in the field of civil air transportation as a fundamental industry complex for the Russian economy.

In addition, in the first part of the work, the product boundaries of the market, the degree of concentration of its participants were identified and studied, the classification and typology of companies in the industry market was identified. An analysis was made of barriers to entry and exit into the civil air transportation industry, as well as the main economic characteristics of the industry were studied and forecasts for the development of the Russian air transportation market were formed.

In the second part, the problem of sectoral policy in the field of civil air transportation in Russia was considered, after studying which, a program was formed to subsidize regional air transportation. Also, in paragraph 2.2, topical issues related to state regulation in the civil air transportation industry were studied and opportunities for improving the efficiency of the industry by optimizing the state regulatory framework were considered.

LIST OF USED SOURCES

1. Electronic magazine Angel Investor [Electronic resource]. - Access mode: http://theangelinvestor.ru

2. Information portal RIA Novosti [Electronic resource]. - Access mode: http://ria.ru

3. http://www.mintrans.ru/ministry/department.php

4. Vorontsova A.M. "managing the competitiveness of business structures in the air transportation market"

5. Report of the Federal Antimonopoly Service of Russia "On the state of competition in the Russian Federation" for 2012

6. Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsiya)

7. http://bibliofond.ru/view.aspx?id=661815

8. http://www.aptuni.ru/load/31-1-0-214

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In 2012, the industry continued to move forward from the “national flag aviation” model to building a full-fledged global air transportation system. Aeroflot Group adhered to a similar development vector - from the national carrier model to the status of one of the key players in the international market. The strategic goals of the airline to build a global route network, implement the capabilities of the main hub in Sheremetyevo, expand cooperation with alliance partners and other airlines reflected the main trends in the aviation market in the past year.

Today the industry is going through difficult times, but it cannot be called a crisis. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA; as of March 2013), the industry's turnover in 2012 was $638 billion. Compared to the previous year, it grew, but its growth rates decreased noticeably and amounted to only 6.8%. The driver of this growth was passenger transportation, which accounted for 79.8% of all revenues. cargo market, whose share was 10.3% of the total, on the contrary, found itself in a difficult situation. Freight revenue decreased by 4.3% to $66 billion.

Industry revenue from passenger transportation increased by 8.5% in 2012

At the same time, growth dynamics was much lower compared to the previous decade.

In the reporting period, airlines' expenses increased by 7.4% and amounted to USD 623 billion. The bulk of the costs fell on the fuel component. Its share, as in 2008, reached a record high of 33% with an average price per barrel of Brent oil in 2012 of $111.8. Other expenses grew by only 2.7% due to the policy of airlines to optimize their activities. The average load on flights reached a record high of 79.1%.

According to IATA (March 2013), net income for the industry as a whole was $7.6 billion.

Its generators were air carriers from North America and the countries of the Asia-Pacific region (APR). They accounted for 82% of the profit ($6.2 billion). The high-growth markets of the Middle East and Latin America accounted for $0.9 and $0.3 billion, respectively, while the European market accounted for $0.3 billion. The industry average profitability ratio was only 1.2%.

According to IATA forecasts (for March 2013), the net profit of air carriers will grow in 2013 by 39.5%, to 10.6 billion US dollars. The improvement in indicators is primarily due to a fairly stable demand for passenger transportation and the start of growth in the freight transportation market.

2.97 (Billion) passengers were transported on regular lines, which is 5% more than in the previous year.

iata estimates that global passenger traffic will increase by 5.2% in 2013. By 2016, the global market will reach 3.6 billion passengers, which is 21% more than the market in 2012.

The past year has been a record year famous airlines that ceased their activities. This list includes the national carriers of Hungary and Uruguay - Malev and Pluna, Indian Kingsfisher Airlines, Spanish Spanair, Italian Wind Jet, Scandinavian and German regional companies City Aviation, OLT Express, Cirrus Airlines, Climber Sterling, Skyways. Certain difficulties with regional transportation began to appear in the United States, which is associated with the optimization of the activities of the main players in the American market.

On the other hand, the industry continued its growth through the creation of joint aviation enterprises to work in certain areas. In 2012, a joint project between Emirates and Qantas was launched to manage the Dubai-Australia route. Also a subsidiary of Qantas - JetStar, together with the Chinese China Airlines Eastern launches low-cost airline JetStar Hong Kong in Hong Kong. Joint projects started with the Japanese JAL and the British British Airways, Singapore Airlines and the Scandinavian SAS.

Individual carriers have begun pursuing a strategy to capture the market with multiple brands. Singapore-based SIA Group launched Scoot, a long-haul low-cost carrier, and Thai Airways adopted a multi-brand development strategy. The largest European players have also strengthened their positions in the short-haul non-transit transportation market through low-cost subsidiaries. Lufthansa began to actively use Germanwings, IAG - Iberia Express. Air France - KLM followed this path, announcing at the very beginning of 2013 the creation of a similar airline - HOP. JSC Aeroflot, as part of its multi-brand strategy, has planned the creation of a low-cost carrier and a separate travel airline.