Modern trends in the development of international air transportation: “point-to-point” and “hub`n`spoke” systems. Global air transportation market: competition and concentration

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MINISTRY OF TRANSPORT OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

FSBEI HPE "St. Petersburg State University of Civil Aviation"

COURSE WORK

Discipline: Airlines, Airport, Aerodromes

Passenger air transportation market

Work performed by: Dmitry Dmitrievich Makhov

1st year student at FAITOP,

331 study groups

The work was checked by: Aigul Ramilevna Pankratova

Saint Petersburg

Introduction

1. Analysis of the state and development prospects of the passenger air transportation market

2. Analysis of the state and prospects for the development of the passenger air transportation market in the Russian Federation

3. Volume indicators

4. Selected quality indicators

5. Airport as an element of the transport system

6. Airport management structure

Conclusion

List of used literature

Introduction

The ongoing economic and social transformations, caused by the development of market relations, have affected not only material production, but also the non-productive sphere of the national economy. New conditions have put forward adequate requirements for economic relations in all sectors, including transport, the role of which is steadily increasing with the expansion of connections in society, the development of productive forces and increased mobility of the population. This fully applies to passenger transport, which performs important economic and social functions.

Improving the functioning of the passenger transport system is an important area of ​​social progress and helps to increase the efficiency of material production. The problems of improving passenger transportation are becoming more acute and complex as society develops, population grows, vehicles improve and the transition to market relations occurs. Their successful solution is largely determined by the effectiveness of the management mechanism in this area of ​​activity.

The formation of the market, the diversity of forms of ownership, the formation and development of entrepreneurship, competition radically change the principles and methods of managing transport organizations in general and passenger transport in particular. These fundamental transformations put forward new requirements for passenger transportation management to improve the quality of service, enhance the mobility of passenger transportation, accessibility and reliability of all types of passenger transport. In solving the problems of interdependent and interconnected development of the economy and social sphere of society, the management of passenger transport is faced with the tasks of a steady increase in its efficiency and the degree of satisfaction of the population with the quality of transportation. In this regard, the results of the functioning of this industry will largely be determined by the ability of the management mechanism to direct the efforts of transport workers to meet the needs of passengers related to time costs, comfort level, fares, clarity of transportation organization, convenient departure and arrival times, attention, helpfulness of staff, etc.

In accordance with the purpose of the research, the following tasks were set and solved in the course work:

Analysis of the state of passenger transportation in the current economic conditions;

Assessing the prospects for the development of passenger transport, taking into account the social orientation of the emerging economy;

An airport is a multifunctional enterprise that is the ground part of the aviation transport system.

The airport is a place of interaction between four main components air transport system:

1 - the airport itself, which may own part of the air traffic control system (ATC - air traffic control);

2 - airlines;

3 - ATC systems;

4 - users.

The purpose of this course work is to study the main technological processes occurring at the airport such as:

1. passenger service;

2. baggage handling and freight transportation technology;

3. airport services for aircraft and airfields;

4. flight support

5. security at the airport, etc.

1. Analysis of the state and development prospects of the passenger air transportation market

The region's transport network is a complex social and communication system consisting of all types of vehicles. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the state and level of development of railway, road, air and sea passenger transport with an assessment of the potential capabilities of each of them in meeting the needs of the population for transport services and improving passenger service.

Transport plays an important role in ensuring sustainable social and economic development of the country and its regions. The transition to market relations places increased demands on providing enterprises and the population with transportation by all modes of transport.

The development of a transport network on the basis of existing enterprises is accompanied by their restructuring, an increase in technical equipment, an expansion of the transportation area, an increase in tariffs and a revaluation of types of passenger transport. In such a situation, a targeted production and economic policy of enterprises of the transport and passenger complex at the national and regional level is necessary, which involves a constant search for new reserves for growth of economic results based on the steady improvement of passenger service according to world standards.

The relevance of the problems of improving the transport management mechanism, which includes passenger transportation, in the conditions of the formation and development of a market economy, predetermined the choice of the research topic.

In the current conditions of economic reform, overcoming the crisis situation presupposes the presence of conscious, and therefore differentiated, state regulation of the transport economy, the implementation of national and regional programs for economic restructuring, the renewal of fixed production assets on the scale of the industry and individual enterprises, and increased local activity. However, an important issue remains the mechanism of influence on direct commodity producers, the choice of the form of production organization and management structure, which fully applies to passenger transportation.

In modern conditions, if there are state and non-state forms of ownership in the industry, as well as various organizational forms of enterprise management, the management mechanism must take into account their characteristics, based on modern principles of management and marketing aimed at meeting the needs of potential consumers and increasing the influence of the human factor in production.

2. Analysis of the state and prospects for the development of the passenger air transportation market in the Russian Federation

Many marketing companies have conducted research in one area or another of passenger transportation, and the main theses and data from their analysis are presented in the work.

So, in the Russian transport system, air transport is one of the main types of passenger transport (19.7% of passenger turnover). Many areas of the country (about 60% of the territory) have virtually no alternative to air travel.

The main directions of transportation are concentrated on airlines connecting Moscow with resort areas, St. Petersburg, with eastern regions and with the capitals of the CIS countries and large European countries.

In 2009, Russian airlines carried, according to the Federal Air Transport Agency (FAVT), 45.11 million passengers, which is 9.4% less than in 2008.

But the leveling off of the economic situation and pent-up demand boosted the passenger air transportation market in 2010. At the end of the first half of the year, the increase in passenger turnover was 36.8% compared to the same period in 2009. Accordingly, market growth in monetary terms is expected. According to experts, the revenue of the civil aviation market in 2010 increased by more than 25% compared to 2009.

In 2009, the share of domestic passenger traffic through Civil Aviation amounted to 52.8% of the total volume of passenger traffic. This is due to the fact that aviation is considered in the fastest way travel in the world, but at the same time the most expensive. Nevertheless, people continue to actively use air transport. Over time, the average price of an air ticket has gradually increased. Thus, in 2008, the cost of a flight for passengers increased by 20% compared to 2007, but in 2009 the price decreased due to the global economic crisis. In 2010, the aviation industry began to “recover” from the crisis - passenger traffic increased, and hence the price of air tickets. During this period of time, the average salary of citizens of our country increased, which means that the demand for air travel also increased, so the increase in prices for air tickets can also be explained by the adequate response of airlines to the increase in the number of customers. Indeed, according to the results of the first half of the year, the increase in passenger turnover amounted to 36.8% compared to the same period in 2009. Accordingly, market growth in monetary terms is expected.

There is a noticeable development of the industry from year to year, but, as the practice of 2009 showed, aviation, like many other industries, is too dependent on a large number of factors in the modern economy - banks, private investment, government support, and so on.

In many ways, it also depends on prices for aviation fuel, and therefore depends on companies that supply, produce kerosene and extract raw materials for its creation. If kerosene prices increase, the company will be forced to increase air ticket prices, which will invariably lead to a decrease in consumer demand.

One of the main cost items for airlines is jet fuel, and these costs have continued to rise in recent years. In companies operating mainly old domestic equipment, this share approached 50% in 2008. However, in 2009, the share of costs for aviation fuel decreased significantly.

But Civil Aviation can suffer losses not only due to changes in the economies of the world, but also from changes in nature. You can recall the hurricanes in the USA in 2009 and 2008, but I would like to give a more “recent” example, so to speak: in April 2010, for the first time, European skies were closed to civil aviation flights for 5 days due to the risk engine damage from ash from the eruption Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull. Many airlines suffered losses of tens of hundreds of thousands of dollars, thousands of passengers could not fly to Right place appointments. Thus, we can talk about the risk of natural disasters.

Also, if we talk about the risks that threaten domestic airlines, it can be noted that passenger traffic carried by foreign companies to Russia is growing from year to year. At the same time, it is proceeding at a faster pace than the growth of traffic by Russian airlines. Accordingly, the share of foreign airlines in passenger transportation to or from Russia increases every year. So, in 2005 it was 31.2%, and in 2009 it increased to 39%.

One of the reasons for this trend is the state of the fleet of Russian airlines. Statistics from recent years show that the total number of main and regional park Russian airlines are gradually decreasing. First of all, aircraft that have exhausted their service life and do not have the opportunity to extend it are written off, among them the Tu-134, Yak-40 and An-24. It is expected that by 2015 they will be completely removed from the domestic aircraft fleet. Soviet-made aircraft are being replaced mainly by foreign aircraft. Thus, one of the largest airlines, Siberia, completely replaced its fleet, removing old domestic aircraft from it. Aeroflot has also completed the replacement of the Tu-154 with the Airbus A319-321 family. Below is a diagram showing the share of foreign-made aircraft (by number) in the fleet structure passenger ships Russian airlines. Statistics are shown as of January 2013.

The diagram clearly reflects the unfavorable situation in the domestic air transportation market: most aircraft need to be replaced or improved. Instead, companies purchase aircraft from foreign manufacturers or continue to operate outdated models. This also affects demand among passengers: studies have shown that Russians trust aircraft of foreign companies significantly more than those produced in Russia.

Thus, we can identify the main problems in the Russian passenger air transportation industry:

1) too much dependence of Russian airlines on factors of the external and internal environment of the country;

2) companies’ greater dependence on kerosene prices;

3) an “aging” aircraft fleet in the Civil Aviation industry of the Russian Federation;

4) purchase of foreign aircraft instead of creating or improving old domestic aircraft;

5) increase in prices for air tickets.

In 2013, despite the stagnation of the Russian economy as a whole, air transport continued to demonstrate growth dynamics that were an order of magnitude higher than the growth rate of the country's GDP. Thus, the main performance indicators of Russian civil aviation (with the exception of cargo transportation) already in November exceeded the corresponding indicators for the 12 months of 2012.

3. Volume indicators

The total volume of work increased by 11.4% and amounted to 25.3 billion tkm. The share of passenger traffic is 80% (+ 2 p.p.), freight traffic - 20% (- 2 p.p.).

At the same time, the maximum passenger turnover amounted to: - 283 billion passenger km. (+13.3% compared to 2012), including on domestic routes - 103.8 billion passenger km. (+6.1%); on international routes - 179.2 billion passenger km. (+18%). Actual passenger turnover reached 225.2 billion passenger km (+15%).

84.6 million people were transported (+14.2%), including 39.2 million people on domestic air routes. (+10.8%); on international flights - 45.3 million people. (+17.4%).

As in the previous year, the main growth was provided by international air traffic.

The average flight distance of a passenger on domestic airlines is 2 thousand km, on international flights - 3.2 thousand km.

Freight turnover amounted to 5 billion tkm. (-1.3%), transportation of goods and mail - 1 million tons (+ 1.3%).

142.8 million passengers were served at Russian airports.

As of January 14, 2014 118 aviation enterprises had operator certificates for commercial air transportation, 116 of which were valid. During 2013, 5 air operator certificates were issued and 9 were cancelled.

4. Selected quality indicators

The share of transportation on international routes in total passenger turnover was 65% (+1 p.p.), on domestic routes - 35% (-1 p.p.). In the total passenger traffic, the share of transportation on international routes is 54% (+2 p.p.), on domestic routes - 46% (-2 p.p.). Foreign airlines transported 19.1 million passengers to/from Russian destinations, 8.5% more than in 2012. Seat occupancy was 79.5% (+ 1.2 p.p.), including on international flights - 82.1%, (+0.3 p.p.) on domestic flights - 75% (+ 2 p.p. .).

Last year, a downward trend in the growth rate of passenger traffic on international routes was clearly evident. The growth dynamics on international flights at the end of the year still remained at a fairly high level (+18.5% in passenger turnover and +17.4% in passenger traffic), but the times of double-digit growth dynamics are most likely gradually becoming a thing of the past.

Passenger transportation on domestic routes, although it showed a lower level of growth dynamics compared to transportation on international routes (+9% in passenger turnover and +10.8% in passenger traffic), but this growth was stable and uniform throughout the year, without sharp drops and rises. As a result, at the end of the year, the growth rate of passenger turnover and passenger traffic on domestic routes was several percentage points higher than the growth rate of the corresponding indicators at the end of 2012.

A high concentration of domestic traffic through the airports of the Moscow air hub remained high, 74.5% at the end of 2013. This situation in the structure of domestic passenger traffic (74-75% through UIA airports) has remained unchanged over the past 5 years.

The level of development of freight transportation quite accurately characterizes the level of development of the Russian economy as a whole and economic relations between the constituent entities of the Federation. It cannot be considered normal.

In 2013, the indicators of domestic airlines in terms of passenger traffic and cargo traffic reached the values ​​of 1991. The only difference is that 22 years ago such a number of passengers, cargo, mail and baggage were transported on domestic airlines.

In the last few years, various executive and legislative bodies, both federal and regional levels, have paid much attention to the development of regional air transportation. As a rule, this attention was reduced to reforming existing and introducing new programs of state support for regional air transportation, or rather their subsidies.

According to the Ministry of Transport:

“On regional routes within and between the constituent entities of the Russian Federation (excluding Moscow) in 2013, 8.5 million passengers were transported. Moreover, if the growth rate in this segment of air transportation, starting from 2000, was no more than 3-4% per year, then in the past year this figure increased to 15%.

In 2013, 5 air transportation subsidy programs were implemented. The total budget of these programs amounted to about 7.5 billion rubles, which made it possible to transport more than 1 million 140 thousand passengers and open more than 80 new routes.”

In other words, the industry regulator is quite satisfied with the results of its efforts to support regional air transportation, with the firm belief that budget money was not wasted, and the situation with the development of regional air transportation was able to be turned from degradation to development, with dynamics that are ahead of industry-wide indicators. It seems that the Ministry of Transport firmly believes that it is the programs for subsidizing air transportation that will become the locomotive that will not only bring regional transportation to a quantitatively different level, but also change the structure of transportation within the country, reducing the concentration of domestic traffic through UIA airports.

In fact, this assessment of the outcome of existing subsidy programs and their role is misleading at best, and in fact it is a mistake.

Let's look at the data provided by the Ministry of Transport from a different angle. The number of passengers transported under all 5 subsidy programs in 2013 amounted to only 2.9% of the total domestic passenger traffic or 9% of the passenger traffic provided by domestic airlines not through UIA airports. Without a doubt, the growth rate in regional air transportation within and between the constituent entities of the Russian Federation is due to the “low base” effect, and in some cases simply the absence of one. By the way, the growth rate of domestic traffic not through UIA airports last year was not some kind of unique achievement. Such surges were noted earlier: 2001. - +15.4%, 2007 - +10.7%, 2010 - +15.3%, 2011 - +17.6%. The drop in traffic volumes in this segment was also no less large-scale. For example, in 2009 they decreased by 20.1%.

The volumes of passenger traffic within the framework of subsidy programs are so small that they cannot have a significant impact on the structure of domestic air transportation. So the overestimation of the 2013 results is, to say the least, premature.

The effectiveness of the implementation of subsidy programs in our country from the point of view of solving social problems is also not entirely obvious. Thus, if programs to subsidize air transportation for certain age categories of citizens from the Far Eastern regions and Kaliningrad to European part countries have at least some social justification, then the social component in the implementation of other programs is quite doubtful.

To confirm this, the following can be cited:

· the number of settlements that are provided with regular air connections with hubs and airports in resort areas in the south of Russia, within the framework of all existing programs - 77 (of which 15 are in the Volga Federal District). Only 7 points out of the total number are located in territories with which there is no year-round connection by land transport and whose transport accessibility is ensured by air transport.

For comparison, in the United States, the budget for the Essential Air Service air transportation subsidy program in 2013 amounted to $235 million (of which $14.7 million for the state of Alaska). It is practically equal to the total budget of Russian programs - 7.5 billion rubles. in 2013 (of which 750 million rubles for the program in the Volga Federal District). At the same time, in the United States, the number of settlements that are provided with regular air connections with hub airports under the program is 160 (of which 47 are in the state of Alaska).

5. Aairport as an element of the transport system

Airport is a complex of structures, including an airfield, an air terminal, and other structures, intended for the reception and dispatch of aircraft, servicing air transportation and having the necessary equipment, aviation personnel and other workers for these purposes.

The class of an airport is determined by the volume of passenger traffic carried out per year, that is, the total number of all arriving and departing passengers, including transit passengers (passengers transferring from one aircraft to another).

Airport class depending on passenger traffic carried out per year (Table 1).

Table 1. Airport class

In addition to those listed, there is also the concept of an unclassified airport (its annual traffic volume is more than 10,000 thousand people), and an unclassified airport (less than 100 thousand people).

Classification of airports and the complexity of their functioning.

The activities of airports in each country are regulated by the Air Code of that country.

In Russia, airports are divided into airports of national importance (strategic) and regional airports. Airports of national importance are airports that provide the majority of passenger and aircraft services, are the main key elements of the Russian air transport system and ensure the functioning of the most important international and interregional air communications in Russia.

Strategic airports are part of a network of international transport corridors. Regional airports are airports that provide aviation services to a specific region.

According to the types of transportation that are served, airports are divided into domestic and international.

An international airport is an airport that is open for the reception and departure of aircraft that perform international air transportation and where customs, border, sanitary and quarantine control, security control and other types of control provided for by current legislation are carried out.

The international airport is also open for the reception and departure of aircraft that carry out air transportation within the country.

A domestic airport is an airport that serves air travel within a country.

The country's aviation authority determines the conditions and procedure for organizing the activities of airports and promotes their development.

An airport in the air transport system is a complex structure that performs a number of specific functions. It is the safest mode of transport compared to other modes of transport (rail, water, road, river, pipeline). Every year the number of passengers using this type of transport increases. The number of transported goods and mail is also increasing.

The main task of the airport is to ensure aviation security and its cooperation with other types of structural units of the airport.

Airports, as part of the transportation system, are a critical component of national, regional and local infrastructure. An airport is not just a public service provider whose activities are regulated by the government; it is an independent commercial complex with its own business goals and development strategy aimed at growth and economic efficiency of operation.

Today, airport development activities are being actively carried out around the world. Airports and their associated companies have a significant impact on global GDP and global employment: taking into account direct and indirect impacts, airports create almost 1% of global GDP and approximately 6 million jobs in the global economy. Airports, being, on the one hand, natural monopolies as infrastructure facilities, and, on the other hand, economic agents, are the most effective in the global economy when measuring labor productivity: GDP per employee is 65 thousand USD annually, which is 3.5 times more than the global average.

The investment attractiveness of aviation activities in the world as a whole remains low: the average return on invested capital is below the average cost of capital of 7.2%. At the same time, airports increase the cost of business through the development of related services (services on the airport premises, fuel refueling, freight forwarding and logistics services, etc.). Thus, if the investment attractiveness of airport services themselves is only 6.5%, then additional and related services are much higher: 22% refueling; 12% transport and forwarding services; 10% ground handling of passengers and cargo; 7.4% Maintenance. The development of airport infrastructure is a priority.

The successful operation of the airport is ensured by the coordination of the work of all the listed systems. In case of imbalance, the following consequences may occur:

Incomplete functioning of the airport and airlines;

Unsatisfactory conditions for passengers;

Inadequate conditions for passengers;

Insufficient flight support;

Unreliability of airport systems;

Increasing the cost of transportation for users;

Deterioration in the provision of equipment to airlines;

Reduced level of passenger service.

The airport is a fairly large enterprise and a source of jobs. Airports such as Ohar (Chicago), Los Angeles, Heathrow, Atlanta have more than 50 thousand workplaces, and at Boryspil airport - more than 3 thousand. To accommodate such a number of employees in workplaces in accordance with social requirements, it is necessary to keep in mind that they form a fairly large settlement. Therefore, the number of organizations that interact with the airport is quite large:

Local government and municipality;

Central authorities;

Concessionaires;

Suppliers;

Police;

Firefighters, security, medical services;

Weather Service;

Engineering service;

Catering and duty-free establishments;

Sanitary Service;

Airlines;

Airport visitors, greeting and seeing off.

Modern airports require significant investment in infrastructure. Therefore, the airport is most often state system, which is created and financed with the goal of creating the maximum return on public investment.

Airport activities are divided into aviation and non-aviation.

Aviation activities are associated with flight support, servicing passengers and aircraft, and handling baggage, cargo and mail.

Non-aviation activities at the airport include commercial passenger services, car parking services, currency exchange and others not related to aviation activities. At the largest airports in the world, non-aviation activities are 1.5-2 times higher than aviation in terms of profit.

6. Airport management structure

Airports are managed by their owners through their managers, who are appointed in agreement with the country's aviation authorities.

The structure of the airport depends on the role played by the airport authority. The administration can solve various tasks with minimal contribution to the implementation of most of the internal tasks of the airport (US model) or directly solve most of these problems (European model).

The structural standard diagram of airport management includes:

Political Council

Main performer

Airport divisions.

The airport strategy is determined by the so-called political council, which, taking into account political processes, interacts through certain channels with society.

The chief executive directs the operation of the airport within the limits determined by the political council, which regulates and controls the implementation of these policies.

The operation of the airport is organized and carried out on the basis of the country's legislative acts that regulate the activities of the country's civil aviation, as well as regulations of the Ministry of Transport, the State Aviation Service of the country and other current regulations that regulate the activities of airports for the safe, regular and efficient provision of flights and passenger service and transportation.

Commercial and service rights international transport the airport receives on the basis of international agreements with other countries, as well as on the basis of direct agreements with foreign partners.

Regional international airport:

Provides ground service for aircraft of airlines, state, collective, private owners and carriers on state and international airlines, services transfer and transit transportation on contractual terms with the obligatory provision of the necessary rules and standards of service;

Organizes and provides flights with radio and lighting equipment and communications, aviation fuels and lubricants, takes part in investigations aviation accidents and incidents in accordance with regulations within the limits of its competence and responsibility;

Provides passengers with international and domestic airlines public utility services and services for conducting currency transactions;

Organizes sanitary and quarantine measures, medical and sanitary services for airport employees, both independently and on contractual terms;

Together with airlines, organizes and carries out search and rescue operations, in accordance with regulations, within the limits of its responsibility;

Provides cargo declaration;

Carries out continuous operation of the airport, airfield and airport facilities and other facilities that support flights.

Passenger and cargo terminals are facilities that perform three main functions:

Mode change - ensuring physical communication between the aircraft and ground devices designed to ensure the functioning of the aircraft;

Passenger service and baggage handling. It includes attaching tags to each piece of baggage, ticket registration, paperwork and control of passengers and baggage;

Changing the type of transportation - transportation of goods and passengers by various modes of transport. (The aircraft must be conveniently located on the airport tarmac, and the transition from ground transport to the aircraft must be carried out in accordance with the requirements of the aircraft). Airports of significant size must be structured to provide the following functions:

1. maintenance, technical work and operation of the aircraft;

2. operation of the airline, including crew, flight attendants, ground technical staff and terminal staff;

3. business activity necessary for the economic stability of the airport (leasing to airlines, etc.);

4. flight support (ATC air traffic control system, weather support, etc.);

5. government functions (agricultural inspection, customs, immigration, medical institutions, etc.).

Agreements of international organizations

With the development of civil aviation, as early as early 1944, the US government held preliminary discussions with its allies about the problems of civil aviation. 55 States were invited to participate in this discussion and 52 States accepted the invitation. The result of the discussion was the Convention on International Civil Aviation, which was adopted in Chicago.

On April 4, 1947, the creation of ICAO was officially announced, with its headquarters in Montreal. The First Session of the ICAO Assembly in 1947 established a standing Legislative Committee to consult on issues related to the interpretation and amendment of the Chicago Convention, to study and develop recommendations on matters of air law. Over the years of its activity, the legislative committee has prepared drafts of 15 international documents. In addition to the Chicago Convention, other conventions were subsequently adopted that complemented and expanded various areas of international civil aviation, for example:

Convention on the International Recognition of Rights in the Air Force (Geneva, June 1948);

Convention on Damages Caused by Foreign Aircraft to Third Parties on the Surface (Rome, 1952);

Convention on Offenses and Other Acts on Board Aircraft (Tokyo, 1963);

Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Seizure of Armed Forces (The Hague, 1970), etc.

Subsequently, with the rapid growth in the number of international traffic and the emergence of a huge number of airlines, the need arose to harmonize rules and procedures for ground handling in global civil aviation, as well as to develop standard forms of relevant contracts.

This was first implemented in 1967 by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) in the form of the Standard Ground Handling Agreement (SGHA), which was included in the IATA Airport Ground Handling Manual (AGM). These documents received status in 1988, when the IATA Ground Handling Council (IGHC) was created. This brought together representatives of airlines, independent companies that provide ground handling, airport authorities and other organizations that directly provide ground handling. Accepted documents are constantly updated and supplemented with new editions and additions and are issued in the form of standards, such as:

ANM 801 - introduction to the IATA standard ground handling agreement;

ANM-802 - comments to the standard agreement;

ANM-803- Memorandum of Understanding;

ANM-804 - system for assessing airport service standards;

ANM-810 - IATA standard ground handling agreement;

ANM-814 - standard agreement on flight catering services;

ANM-815 - standard agreement on the preparation of transportation documentation, etc.

The IATA International Air Transport Association Passenger Ground Handling Committee believes that comfortable passenger service can be achieved if the following conditions are met:

Good and quick access to the air terminal from the main points of passenger flow;

Clear and accurate signs and signs for arriving and departing transport in the airport terminal area;

Sufficient station area for stopping transport, boarding passengers and short-term parking;

Appropriate equipment of car parks located in the terminal area;

Direct and clear routes for passengers, allowing them to travel individually from the aircraft to the terminal building and back;

Ability to receive departing passengers and their luggage immediately before aircraft departure;

Short and direct routes for baggage, cargo and mail, provided that their flows do not interfere with passenger flows;

Simple, fast and safe technology for processing baggage, cargo and mail;

Appropriate means for transporting passengers inside the terminal to the landing sites, as well as from one terminal building to another;

Protection of passengers from the influence of bad weather, noise, jets of aircraft engines and the smell of fuel and lubricants;

Close connection of the platform with the terminal building, passenger service and baggage handling technologies;

Availability of means of mechanization of production processes that guarantee quick service for passengers, unloading, loading of baggage and cargo and preparing aircraft for the next flight.

Conclusion

No company can carry out market analysis, planning and control of its activities without researching its target audience, competitors, intermediaries and other entities and forces operating in the market. Also, the normal functioning of the organization is almost impossible without the collection of comprehensive information on the level of sales and prices. In the market of any business sector, it is impossible to find a company that would be completely satisfied with the marketing information that can be collected. Therefore, the key to effectively operating airlines is to conduct marketing research.

Good market research can contribute to the success of an airline's efforts. If a study is poorly designed, time and money can be wasted and ineffective. In this case, the company may go bankrupt, losing both funds and potential buyers. To prevent similar situation, enterprises are required to hire not only qualified marketing workers, but also to ensure that they use the correct research methods, correctly calculate all indicators and use the full range of marketing tools.

The main task of forecasting passenger traffic is to establish the needs of the population for movement and determine the volume of traffic and passenger turnover in transport during the forecast period, as well as the development of planned indicators in areas in order to prepare for the development of upcoming traffic and for the development of other sections of the transport plan.

The greatest influence on the volume and structure of passenger traffic is exerted by the population size, economic development, income of the population, the cultural standard of living of the people, the growth of cities, the development of the sanatorium and resort network and tourism, the level of passenger tariffs and other factors. The level of passenger traffic can be assessed by the population mobility coefficient, which is determined by dividing the number of passengers or passenger-kilometers transported by the average annual population.

In Russia and the United States, the financial resources allocated from the state budget for air transportation subsidy programs are almost equal in amount.

In the Russian Federation 2 times fewer cities, which, as part of subsidy programs, are provided with regular air service to hub airports. In practice, there is no priority in allocating funds to ensure air communication for cities, the livelihoods of which really depend on the availability of regular air communication with the “mainland”. In Russia for the program in Privolzhsky federal district(PFD) allocates more financial resources than the United States allocates to subsidize transportation in the state of Alaska. At the same time, Alaska has almost 3 times more settlements covered by the subsidy program.

In general, the dynamics of development of the domestic air transportation market do not fit into generally accepted classical norms. Leaders of global civil aviation estimate the ratio of air traffic growth to GDP growth at 2:1. In our practice, the figures for the rapid growth of air traffic against the backdrop of a practical stop in GDP cannot be explained. However, apparently, the period of extensive growth is coming to an end.

The air transportation market in the country has changed dramatically, and its main characteristics are relative economic freedom and intense competition; the volume of air transportation and aviation work has decreased significantly; most airlines find themselves in a difficult financial situation, which does not allow them not only to develop, but also to maintain their infrastructure; airlines have undergone processes of corporatization, division into independent airlines and airports; The outdated regulatory framework of civil aviation is holding back the development and functioning of the Russian aviation market and the industry as a whole, leaving it without a future and practically erasing it from the global aviation community.

passenger air transportation transport

List of used literature

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6. Gubenko A.V., Smurov M.Yu., Cherkashin D.S. Economics of air transport: Textbook for universities. Allowed UMO - St. Petersburg: Peter, 2009. - 288 p.

7. Kostromina E.V. Economics of airlines in market conditions / 3rd ed., add. - M.: Aviabusiness, 2010. - 304 p.

8. Kostromina E.V. Air transport marketing: Textbook for universities / M.: Infra-M, 2012. - 359 p.

9. Kotler F., Armstrong G. Fundamentals of Marketing. Professional edition. Per. Pelyavsky O.L. , Nazarenko A.V. - M.: Williams, 2010. - 1072 p.

10. Kurochkin E.P., Dubinina V.G. Management of airline commercial activities / M.: Aviabusiness, 2009. - 536 p.

11. "Information-model complex for researching the civil air transportation market", E.N. Komaristy, Siberian branch Russian Academy Sciences, 2006;

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The emergence and formation of the modern air transportation market began in Russia in 1991. Against the backdrop of general economic deregulation, privatization and price liberalization, in the air transportation sector over the course of several years there has been a transition from a planned system of economic relations to a market one.

This transition was carried out in difficult conditions (unfavorable macroeconomic conditions, mistakes in rapid reform) and, ultimately, had a negative impact on the development of the air services sector. From 1990 to 2000 There was a sharp decline in air transport performance indicators (Fig. 1), which had no analogues in the world history of civil aviation.

Picture 1.
Dynamics of passenger and cargo turnover (1930-2002)

Gradually, since 2000, the air transportation market began to regain lost ground. Today, it accounts for more than 12% of passenger turnover and less than 1% of freight turnover of general traffic in Russia (Fig. 2). Compared to other sectors, it is developing dynamically. From 1999 to 2002 Passenger turnover increased by 25%, cargo turnover - by 18%. At the same time, in terms of efficiency, airlines reached indicators that were not recorded in the previous seven years. At the end of 2002, the passenger load factor (calculated for all types of transportation) increased by 2.3% (to 68.7%), and the commercial load factor by 1.6% (to 59.9%).

Figure 2.

The industry's financial results in 2002 were positive. Civil aviation finished with a profit for the second year in a row. According to preliminary estimates by the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation, the income of air carriers in 2002 amounted to about 146 billion rubles, which is 43% more than in 2001. Total profit for the same period increased to 9.5 billion rubles (6.5% of revenues).

However, the profit received mainly falls on the leading companies in the industry. 9.2 billion rubles were provided through the activities of Aeroflot, the State Air Traffic Control Corporation, the Pulkovo enterprise and Sheremetyevo airport. The remaining 300 million is distributed among 233 airlines, 450 airports, aircraft repair plants and fuel filling stations. It is obvious that the majority of companies in the industry are still unprofitable or do not carry out professional activities in the air transportation sector at all.

According to the Transport Clearing House, just over 70 of the 235 officially registered airlines reported their performance figures in 2002. At the same time, they account for almost 90% of the total passenger traffic and 80% of the transported mail and cargo.

Now big business is much more active than small regional carriers. The share of the leading airlines in the market is increasing every year, and in 2002 the 10 largest companies controlled about 70% of the market in terms of passenger traffic (Table 1).

Table 1.
10 largest Russian airlines by passenger turnover

10 largest Russian airlines by cargo turnover

According to the practice of global air transportation markets, this concentration indicator indicates high competition in the industry. Similar data for the national industries of European countries is much higher. The largest market participants in France and Germany account for about 80%-90% of the total market (Fig. 3).

Figure 3.
Concentration of transportation in the national markets of individual European countries, %

Consequently, the Russian market should be highly competitive. However, in reality, the degree of competition depends on the region and airline routes.

On domestic profitable routes there is a high congestion of routes; 8-10 air carriers operate on them with varying frequencies of flights. For example, on the line with the maximum maximum capacity Moscow-Sochi there are 11 airlines, Moscow-St. Petersburg - 6 airlines (Fig. 4). At the same time, in other directions, where air transportation is unprofitable due to the lack of effective demand, there is no real competition, and at best one or two regional air carriers carry out operations.

Figure 4
The busiest Moscow air routes according to 2002 data

On international routes In general, only 35 Russian airlines operate (Table 2). Moreover, their activities are limited by the framework of intergovernmental agreements, and the so-called “informal quotas”, that is, a preliminary agreement between the authorities state power and by the airlines themselves about the right to carry out transportation on international routes.

A more regulated quota system also applies to domestic Russian airlines. Until recently, 26 domestic lines were allocated quotas, but at the end of July the Licensing Commission of the State Civil Aviation Service of Russia decided to reduce the number of lines from 26 to 15.

Table 2.
35 largest airlines in terms of passenger turnover on international routes in 2002, thousand passengers km

In the near future, Russian aviation authorities are not going to completely abandon regulation of the air transportation market, and the admission of any airline to the route will be carried out only by decision of the licensing commission. This means that barriers to entry into the market, both internal and external, remain, and the degree of competitiveness of destinations will also vary.

However, streamlining the work of Russian air carriers today is carried out in slightly different ways. Currently, government authorities are working to optimize the industry structure and business consolidation through licensing and certification of air carriers.

Figure 5.
Dynamics of the number of airlines in 1993-2002.

In some cases, companies leave the market when the state revokes their certificates due to non-compliance with certification requirements. This happened with 36 companies in 2001, with 42 companies in 2002 (Fig. 5). In the near future, the process of tightening certification and licensing rules will continue. At the state level, processes of mergers and consolidations will be encouraged. True, effective mechanisms have not yet been developed to stimulate the merger of airlines on a voluntary basis and the creation of alliances. And leaving the market itself is not always carried out in a natural market way. However, according to the plans of the Russian Ministry of Transport, by 2010 the total number of carriers in Russia will be at the level of 100-150 airlines.

In general, a reduction in the absolute number of carriers should have a positive impact on the growth of the competitiveness of domestic companies, and, as a result, contribute to the activation of aggregate consumer demand.

Currently, the demand for transportation by Russian airlines is not great. Last year, only 26.5 million passengers used their services, while 627 thousand tons of mail and cargo were transported. For Russia, with an official population of more than 140 million people and a total area of ​​​​17075.4 thousand square meters. km is very little. Similar indicators for developed countries with a comparable territory are 10 times higher than in Russia. Therefore, there is potential demand for air travel in the country. But it cannot be fully utilized due to the current macroeconomic situation, including the low living standards of the majority of the population, and low business activity in the regions.

As for real demand, it is developing quite dynamically, and over recent years there has been a change in the structure of demand for air transportation with a significant shift towards the external market.

Demand for domestic air travel

Demand for domestic air travel has declined sharply since the early 1990s due to skyrocketing air fares. During the first 2 years of reforms, a much smaller number of the population began to use air transport (there was a 2-fold drop) and cargo turnover decreased (almost 4 times).

With the growth of business activity after the August 1998 crisis, the total volume of domestic Russian indicators began to gradually increase. At the end of last year, the number of passengers and cargo transported amounted to 15.44 million people and 262.67 thousand tons, respectively (Fig. 6). The greatest demand was for lines with the maximum maximum carrying capacity, such as Moscow-Novosibirsk, Krasnodar-Moscow, Yekaterinburg-Moscow, etc.

Today, the domestic market is mainly a market for business passenger transportation. Due to the low competitiveness of Russian tourism and low prices for railway tickets, the population prefers not to use air transport services for personal purposes.

At the same time, business trips are paid for by organizations, and not by citizens themselves, so price when choosing transport ceases to be a factor determining demand. Frequency of transportation and convenience of routes come first.

If we evaluate the potential capacity of the domestic air transportation market, it will directly depend on the dynamics of tariffs and the pace of development of the Russian economy. In the medium term, it is quite possible to attract the “middle class” to this market. According to Expert magazine, it now accounts for approximately 25% of the Russian population (about 36 million). How active its demand can be depends on prices, quality of service, frequency of flights and safety of Russian airlines.

Figure 6
Dynamics of passenger and cargo transportation on domestic and international airlines (1992-2002)

Demand for external air transportation

The demand for external air travel continued to increase, despite the Russian crisis of 1990-2000. Its growth began with insignificant indicators (passenger turnover in 1992 was 14 billion passenger km, cargo turnover was about 500 million tkm), and as a result, over ten years it amounted to 317% of the number of passengers and 420% of cargo and mail transportation. This explosive increase in transportation indicators on international routes is explained by three reasons: since the early 90s, with the fall of the Iron Curtain, the volume of supplies of imported goods increased, and a rush demand for tourist trips abroad.

Moreover, the increased demand of Russians for foreign trips was not entirely “natural” and was largely initiated by the policies of airlines. After all, several years ago, Russian air carriers, together with tourism operators, began to form and offer their clients special service packages in which the cost of a round trip flight to Turkey, Egypt, and Cyprus was offered at dumping prices. Traveling by plane abroad has practically become cheaper than a holiday in Russia, and most tourists took advantage of the profitable opportunity to spend a vacation abroad, take a vacation in Tunisia or a tour to Italy.

It is important that the companies themselves did not suffer from this at all. The profitability of international air transportation is still much higher than domestic air transportation, while the efficiency indicators for international air transportation statistics are higher than for domestic flight statistics (Table 3).

Table 3.
Comparison of individual coefficients of international and domestic transport for 2002

Today, the foreign market has much greater potential for further growth than the domestic market. First of all, we are talking about the geographical position of Russia, which allows transportation between Europe and Asia - the two largest economic regions.

At the same time, the growth of business activity in Russia itself, its further integration into the international system of business, political, and social relations will entail additional passenger traffic of both foreign and Russian citizens.

And, finally, additional demand in the foreign market will appear with the expansion of the activities of Russian air carriers abroad and their cooperation with global airlines. The practice of interline agreements and code-sharing agreements, which are concluded by international companies with Russian carriers that are competitive in the world market, is already widespread in Russia.

480 rub. | 150 UAH | $7.5 ", MOUSEOFF, FGCOLOR, "#FFFFCC",BGCOLOR, "#393939");" onMouseOut="return nd();"> Dissertation - 480 RUR, delivery 10 minutes, around the clock, seven days a week and holidays

Gurieva, Madina Taimurazovna. Modern trends in the development of the global air cargo market: dissertation... Candidate of Economic Sciences: 08.00.14 / Gurieva Madina Taimurazovna; [Place of protection: Moscow. state int. int. relations] - Moscow, 2010. - 194 p.: ill. RSL OD, 61 11-8/110

Introduction

Chapter 1. Theoretical and methodological features of the analysis of the global air cargo market 11

1.1. The essence of transport services and the place of air cargo transport in them 11

1.2. The main factors affecting the state of supply and demand in the global air cargo market in modern conditions 27

1.3. Commodity and geographical structure of the global air cargo market 42

Chapter 2. Organizational aspects of improving the functioning of the global air cargo market 55

2.1. Features and prospects for the formation and modernization of the cargo aircraft fleet 55

2.2. Modern trends in optimizing the air cargo transportation process in the world 70

2.3. Improving the functioning of the global air cargo market through innovation 81

Chapter 3. Prospects for expanding the activities of Russian companies in the global air cargo market 100

3.1. Analysis of the current state of air cargo transportation in Russia 100

3.2. Ways to increase the competitiveness of Russian cargo carriers in the global market 122

3.3. Innovative approaches to expanding the export of air cargo transport services in Russia 134

Conclusion 149

Bibliography

Introduction to the work

Relevance of the topic . In modern conditions of development of the world economy, the importance of international cargo transportation is constantly increasing to ensure the smooth functioning of international trade in goods, as well as the supply of modern production and distribution systems. Air transport is one of the most dynamically developing modes of transport, whose importance is growing as the share of finished and expensive products in the structure of world trade increases. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the share of air transport in the total volume of cargo transported in the world is 0.6%-2%, while at the same time the share of cargo transported by air in value terms reaches 35-40%.

The relevance of the research topic is due to the need to expand the activities of Russian airlines in the global cargo transportation market, identify their potential in this market through a comprehensive study of current trends in its development and determine the main factors determining the competitiveness of airlines.

The current situation in the air cargo transportation market is characterized by a significant reduction in the volume of transported cargo, which is associated with the global economic crisis, as well as a number of factors that negatively affect the dynamics of demand for air transportation. Among these factors, we can note increased competition from other modes of transport (especially maritime), instability of fuel prices, and increasingly stringent environmental requirements. In such conditions, it is important for cargo carriers to strive for maximum cost reduction and build a development strategy taking into account the specifics of the modern situation. Of particular importance at the moment are organizational innovations, new forms of cooperation and organization of the transportation process, implementation the latest achievements the field of information technology to optimize the delivery process of goods during air transportation and meet customer needs while reducing costs.

The particular relevance of this topic for the Russian economy is due to the fact that the share of Russian cargo carriers in the dynamically developing global aviation market is very small and does not correspond to the country’s potential, due to its geographical location, level of development and the presence of its own aircraft manufacturing complex. The “Transport Strategy of the Russian Federation for the period until 2030” notes that the geographical features of Russia determine the priority role of transport in the development of the country’s competitive advantages in terms of realizing its transit potential, and today’s volume and quality characteristics of transport, especially its infrastructure, do not allow efficient meet the challenges of a growing economy. All of the above fully applies to air cargo transport.

The degree of development of the topic in the scientific literature. The problems of the functioning of the global aviation market are quite widely considered in Russian and foreign economic literature, including in the works of such well-known domestic and foreign scientists as B.V. Artamonov, V.G. Afanasyev, V.D. Bordunov, E.V. Kostromina, K. Button, G. Butler, R. Doganis, N. Evans and others. However, the specifics of the modern development of the global air freight market, the issues of creating competitive advantages of Russian and foreign airlines directly in this market remain problems that are not sufficiently covered in scientific research, which also determines the relevance of this study.

Purpose and objectives of the study. The purpose of this study is to identify current trends in the development of the global air cargo market and opportunities for expanding the activities of Russian companies in this market.

Such a definition of a goal involves setting a number of specific tasks, the sequential solution of which determines the structure of the study, namely:

identification and study of the theoretical features of the formation of the modern world air cargo market, the conditions for its functioning and the main factors influencing the trends and dynamics of the development of this market;

analysis of the features and prospects for the development of the air fleet used for cargo transportation on the world market, and their relationship with the competitiveness of cargo carriers;

research into trends in optimizing the functioning of the global air cargo market, including the introduction of elements of a business simplification system into the practice of cargo airlines;

identification and analysis of organizational innovations in the field of air cargo transportation, including comparison of the advantages of various business models and their impact on the competitiveness of carriers in the global market;

analysis of the current state and prospects of the air cargo transportation industry in the Russian Federation, as well as identifying the most effective areas for increasing the competitiveness of cargo carriers and developing proposals for their implementation in the activities of Russian airlines;

formation of innovative directions for increasing the export of air cargo transport services in Russia.

When solving the above problems Special attention focuses on the practical experience of foreign airlines and international organizations in this area, as well as the possibilities of its use by Russian market participants.

Object of study within the framework of the dissertation, the global air cargo market in its current state is presented as a promising direction for the development of the activities of Russian cargo carriers.

Subject of research of this dissertation are current trends in the development of the global air cargo market and factors influencing the competitiveness of companies in it.

Chronological framework of the study. The dissertation examines the development of the global air cargo market at the end of the 20th – beginning of the 21st century. The period from 1978 (the moment of liberalization of the aviation services market in the USA) to the present is analyzed. During this period, significant changes occurred in the global market for cargo and mail transportation, both in the volume and growth rate of traffic, and in the relative importance of the main factors determining the competitiveness of airlines in the global air cargo market.

Theoretical and methodological bases. The development of the chosen topic was based on the study of articles and monographs by Russian and foreign scientists and specialists in the field of international transportation, logistics and aviation business: B.A. Anikina, B.V. Artamonova, V.G. Afanasyeva, V.D. Bordunova, A.M. Gadzhinsky, V.S. Gryaznova, V.V. Dybskoy, E.V. Kostromina, L.B. Mirotina, V.M. Nazarenko, Yu. M. Nerusha, V.S. Nikiforova, D.S. Nikolaeva, V.A. Persianova, K.I. Pluzhnikova, S.V. Sarkisova, A.A. Fridland, K. Button, G. Butler, R. Doganis, M. Christopher, N. Evans and others.

The methodological basis of the study was the works of domestic and foreign scientists devoted to the processes of globalization in international economic relations, the theory of international competitiveness, international trade in services: E.F. Avdokushina, V.D. Andrianova, O.T. Bogomolova, A.S. Bulatova, A.A. Dynkina, V.K. Lomakina, N.N. Liventsev, M. Porter, A.A. Thompson, A. J. Strickland and others.

The information base of the study consisted of regulatory, analytical and statistical materials of the Government of the Russian Federation, the Federal Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation, the Federal Air Transport Agency, the Federal Service for Supervision of Transport, Russian and foreign specialized reference publications, materials of special reports and thematic reviews. The work uses monographs and scientific and analytical works of scientists specializing in transport issues, especially aviation, materials from Russian and foreign periodicals, research from research centers and institutes of the aircraft industry, publications, reviews and reports of the World Trade Organization, the International Air Transport Association , International Civil Aviation Organization and other international organizations, Internet materials.

For the purposes of this study, statistical data and publications of Russian research institutes, reports and reports of scientific and practical conferences, materials of Russian and foreign publications on issues of competitiveness in the international aviation market, annual reports and corporate materials of airlines and civil aircraft manufacturers, as well as expert assessments of leading aviation industry specialists. The work also examined analytical reviews and ratings compiled by the Financial Times and Expert PA agencies.

Scientific novelty. In the process of research in the dissertation work, the author obtained the following theoretical and practical results that determine scientific novelty:

The essence and role of transport services in ensuring the continuity of the reproduction process in modern conditions, as well as the growing importance of air cargo transport in the world economy in the context of globalization, are revealed. Based on the analysis of the composition and qualitative content of factors influencing the dynamics of supply and demand in the global air cargo market at the present stage, the factors that currently have the most significant impact are identified: fluctuations in fuel prices; tightening requirements related to environmental protection and flight safety; as well as modern trends in international trade and the introduction of the latest types of production organization and inventory management systems, in realizing the benefits of which air transport can play a decisive role.

The features and prospects for the formation of a cargo aircraft fleet in the context of globalization have been established. At the same time, the specifics of changes in the structure of the cargo air fleet were revealed, including a significant increase in the share of the latest wide-body aircraft, which are most consistent with the geographical and quantitative distribution of cargo flows at the present time, as well as their qualitative composition.

As a result of a study of the organizational aspects of the functioning of the global air cargo market, significant opportunities for their improvement were identified, including a significant reduction in the costs of cargo carriers associated with the prospect of introducing elements of a business simplification system. It has been established that to use this system in Russia, it is necessary to implement a set of measures aimed at both introducing technological innovations and improving the legislative framework, in particular, through accession to the Montreal Convention of 1999, as well as the introduction of an electronic customs declaration of goods program.

It has been determined that the current state of the industry involves the active use of innovations in the activities of companies, while at this stage organizational innovations become especially important, allowing to optimize the processes of introducing new methods of distribution and sales, entering new markets, and introducing new business models. It is substantiated that, in relation to the industry under consideration, the most relevant innovations are the following: the emergence and development of such a form of cargo transportation as express transportation; formation of strategic alliances in the cargo market; the activities of leasing companies on a new integrated basis, allowing carriers to expand their presence in markets, including those subject to seasonal fluctuations, without significant investment in equipment and the cost of additional personnel.

It has been established that Russian participants in the air cargo market, despite the significant potential of the industry, do not play a comparable significant role in the global market. Proposals have been formulated to introduce a number of measures into the activities of Russian air cargo carriers aimed at increasing their competitiveness in the world market, including the introduction of an international logistics approach to the provision of services as part of the proposed set of measures to increase profitability; horizontal and/or vertical integration; actions aimed at overcoming imbalances in the most important areas, and others.

The current relevance of state support for the aviation industry is substantiated, especially in the form of providing manufacturers with civil courts access to technologies and developments that were originally created for military purposes and financed by the state, and a set of measures was proposed public policy, aimed at expanding the export of air cargo transport services in Russia, including the removal of duties on imported aircraft, the analogues of which are not produced in Russia, promoting the widespread implementation of international standards and safety audit mechanisms, electronic technologies, stimulating the development of competition in potentially competitive areas of airport activity, and others .

Practical significance. The main provisions and results of the dissertation were used by the author for scientific, educational and practical purposes and were reflected in published works.

The research results, main provisions, conclusions and recommendations of the dissertation can be used at different levels of management of Russian airlines, and can also serve as the basis for further practical developments in the field of increasing the competitiveness of the Russian air cargo industry.

The results of the study may be in demand by ministries and departments in the field of transport and foreign economic activity, and, above all, by the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, and will also be useful when studying relevant issues in IMEMO RAS, JSC "VNIKI" and analytical centers of the aviation industry.

In addition, the practical significance of the study is due to the possibility of using the materials and conclusions of the dissertation by scientific and educational institutions of economics in the preparation of lecture courses and practical classes in the disciplines “International transport operations and logistics”, “Commercial logistics”, “International commercial business”, “Trade in services” ", "Transport management", "Freight forwarding operations".

Approbation of the results of the dissertation research. The main theoretical conclusions and provisions of the dissertation, as well as a number of practical proposals, were tested in the following forms: the author published 6 works on the topic of the dissertation with a total volume of 3.0 pp. (including auto 2.8 p.l.)

The main theoretical principles and practical conclusions of the dissertation were also tested by the applicant at the IV International Logistics Forum “Logistics. Product distribution. Supply" (ITKOR Institute, Moscow, October 26-29, 2009) and the seminar-conference "Logistics of production and trade organizations" (ITKOR Institute, Moscow, April 7, 2010).

The analytical materials of the dissertation and the author's expert proposals, based on the conclusions made during the preparation of this work, were used in the work of the Atlant-Soyuz airline when making management decisions.

The dissertation materials were also used when delivering lectures and conducting seminars on the courses “Fundamentals of Logistics”, “International Economic Relations” at the Faculty of International Economic Relations of MGIMO (U) MFA of Russia, “International Transport Operations and Logistics” at the Faculty of MBDA MGIMO (U) MFA of Russia, “ Transport support for foreign economic activity" IVES MGIMO (U) Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia.

The main factors influencing the state of supply and demand in the global air cargo market in modern conditions

The globalization of the economy and the accompanying processes of development of foreign trade exchange have significantly changed the volume and structure of the air cargo market and increased the requirements for operational efficiency transport systems. The changes that have taken place in air cargo and express delivery services, which play an important role in the functioning of the international economy, provide an example of how transport can enhance globalization processes. Moreover, as a result of these processes, increasing the competitiveness of national transport service providers in world markets and the growth of their exports are becoming as important a component of the country’s national product as the export of goods.

It should be noted that air cargo carriers, as well as other companies providing transport services, are constantly in a rather difficult, somewhat ambiguous position due to the specifics of the transport service itself. At different periods of time, two different approaches to defining the essence of transport were common. Among Soviet scientists there was a very widespread concept according to which transport (or at least freight transport) is not a service sector, but a fourth sphere of material production, the result of which is transport products. According to K. Marx’s definition, “besides the mining industry, agriculture and manufacturing industry, there is a fourth sphere of material production... This is the transport industry, no matter whether it transports people or goods.” According to D.S. Nikolaev, although transport products (that is, the transportation process carried out by vehicles) do not have a material form, unlike other sectors of the national economy, they are nevertheless material in nature. Among the supporters of this concept, it was believed that this was confirmed by the fact that in the process of movement, material resources are spent, rolling stock wears out, the labor of transport workers is used, etc. .

For the purposes of this work, we prefer the modern definition of transport as a service sector, reflected, for example, in the classification of the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS), and the works of leading Russian specialists in the field of transport and international economic relations.

Transport is a service sector that transports passengers and goods along communication routes. This movement, produced and consumed simultaneously, has its own value and, as a specific service, has its own market price. The cost of a transport service increases the price of the product that existed before its movement, although its material form remains unchanged during transportation.

Regardless of whether transport is considered as a sphere of material production or as a service sector, the extremely important role of transport in the process of social reproduction is undeniable. When a product moves from the place of production to the point of consumption, in a certain sense, “the process of production of the product within the sphere of circulation” continues. Without the participation of transport, goods cannot be consumed, and the process of national economic circulation is completed. Thus, the importance of transport for social reproduction is obvious.

The specificity of transport is that since the material form of the goods remains unchanged during transportation, the owner of the goods is interested in ensuring that the price of movement is minimal to maintain an acceptable share of the transport component in the price of the product at the point of consumption, and the delivery process itself is as fast as possible (after all, while the goods are in transit, the funds invested in them do not participate in the turnover) and safe (bearing in mind the immutability of the goods during its transportation).

Satisfying these needs for a transport enterprise means higher labor and capital costs, and, accordingly, higher transportation costs, because the manufacturer of a transport service is interested in a price for its “product” that would not only cover its costs, but would also make the transport business profitable .

Therefore, the entire course of development of scientific and technological progress in transport is determined, on the one hand, by the need to satisfy society’s needs for the movement of goods and people, ensuring high speeds and safety of goods and people along the route, and on the other hand, by the growing importance of maximizing cost reduction. However, the combination of these requirements for transport with the need to take into account other interests of society, such as, for example, environmental protection and compliance with safety standards when providing this service, is becoming increasingly important. From the author’s point of view, it is the air transportation sector that is able to most effectively ensure the fulfillment of the specified requirements for the transportation process, since it is air transport that is characterized by the highest delivery speed and degree of safety of cargo in transit. The development of this sector is necessary to ensure the country’s foreign trade relations and directly affects the competitiveness of the economy in the world economy.

A special feature of the transport services market is also that it has the features of a monopoly market, where the action of market relations is objectively limited by a number of factors. Firstly, transport is traditionally considered as a strategically important sector of the economy, ensuring the development and strengthening of the national state community of people.

Secondly, transport services make a great contribution to ensuring a unified set of vital conditions throughout the country,

Thirdly, transport (depending on the specific type) requires large capital investments for construction and operation, as well as costs associated with land development.

Fourthly, enterprises in service sectors dominated by a natural monopoly may belong to the non-state sector and are subject to legislation restricting free market competition. Although transport services are predominantly so-called regulated services, the degree of strictness of their regulation varies. There are many exceptions to the legislation restricting free competition and private entrepreneurship in the service sector with the dominance of a natural monopoly. At the same time, in the practice of economic activity of the transport industries, there are the following methods of state regulation: control and licensing of the entry of a new company into the services market, the right of its existence, up to the termination of the activities of the company as a whole and its individual operations;

Commodity and geographical structure of the global air cargo market

In July 2008, the price of crude oil reached $147 per barrel, and jet fuel reached a record high of $180 per barrel. The subsequent fall in oil prices on the world market has not yet significantly improved the situation of air carriers for the following reasons: firstly, prices for aviation fuel are falling much more slowly and the so-called crack spread (oil-petroleum product spread) has increased from 25% to 45 %; secondly, the rise in the dollar exchange rate somewhat offset the benefits for non-American airlines - at the end of 2008, “spot” prices for jet fuel in the United States were 57% lower than in July, while in Europe prices in euros decreased only by 48 %; Third, the hedging that virtually all airlines used when oil prices rose did them a disservice when prices fell. Thus, when making forecasts for 2009, IATA specialists assumed a price of 100-110 dollars per barrel of crude oil (in December 2008, the forecasts were revised to 60 dollars per barrel). On its own, a $40 per barrel price cut could reduce airline fuel costs by more than $60 billion per year, but the effect of hedging was rather negative for airlines in the fourth quarter of 2008 and early 2009. Therefore, the real price of fuel for airlines fell by only $17 per barrel, and numerous measures taken by carriers to reduce fuel consumption remained relevant. Fourthly, the renewed rise in oil prices forces us to reconsider all forecasts - already in June 2009, the price of oil was 75% higher than the lowest point reached at the end of 2008. Although the crack spread has dropped to 15% due to underutilization of refining capacity, the price of jet fuel reached approximately $80 per barrel in the fall of 2009, bringing the airline industry's total fuel spending in 2009 to an estimated $106 billion above the projected $106 billion. also that the average age of cargo ships is significantly higher than passenger ships (25 and 13 years, respectively), so fuel saving measures here are still less effective. The issue of fuel economy is also very important from the point of view of environmental friendliness of air travel. In general, the main problems of air transportation related to environmental protection include the problem of noise levels during takeoff and landing at airports and adjacent areas and the problem of emission (release) of harmful substances (local, that is, polluting the areas adjacent to airports and negatively affecting the health of people living nearby, and global, that is, associated with an increase in the so-called “greenhouse effect”).

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the transport sector accounts for about 13% of greenhouse gas emissions, with aviation accounting for about 2%. We are talking primarily about emissions of a substance such as carbon dioxide (CCb), which is directly related to fuel consumption. The International Air Transport Association is taking a number of measures to reduce harmful emissions. These measures include the use of more direct (i.e. short) routes, the introduction of the most efficient methods of operating vessels, saving time in transit and during maneuvers: the use of more direct (i.e. short) routes: according to ICAO, only in 2005, work to implement appropriate changes on approximately 300 routes reduced CO2 emissions by 6.1 million tons and saved $1.2 billion; the introduction of the most efficient methods of ship operation led to a reduction in emissions by 4.3 million tons and savings of $800 million in 2005); savings in travel time and during maneuvers have already saved 2.5 million minutes of flight time, which burns an average of 49 kg of fuel per minute; as a result, there was a reduction in harmful emissions by 1.5 million tons, and savings of $300 million were achieved). Increased noise levels are another important factor causing negative public attitudes towards the operation and expansion of airports, both in developed and developing countries. In fact, the noise level emanating from aircraft during takeoff and landing at a particular airport depends on a number of factors, including the type of aircraft, the total number of takeoffs and landings per day, general conditions operation, time of day at which takeoffs and landings are made, type of runway, weather conditions and a number of other factors. International organization Since the 1960s, civil aviation (ICAO) has been taking numerous measures to reduce noise levels. It should be noted that aircraft coming off the production line today are approximately 75% less noisy than they were 40 years ago.

The main innovative developments in this area are related to the following areas: - reduction of noise at the source (new aircraft must meet ICAO requirements for noise measured at three points: during approach, takeoff, climb); - planning and management of the use of territories (measuring noise levels in the immediate vicinity of airports, prohibiting the location of schools, hospitals, religious buildings and some other institutions in this area and a number of other measures); - measures to reduce noise during operation (changes in routes, approach patterns, climb rules, location of runways, that is, redistribution of noise produced to reduce the impact on the most sensitive areas around airports); - restrictions on operation (a ban on the operation of all ships at certain times of the day or a ban on the operation of a certain type of ship, which created, for example, serious problems for Russian carriers in Europe from the beginning of the current decade - Soviet-made ships did not meet ICAO requirements and needed at least least in installing an additional and expensive noise reduction system).

It is also planned to introduce so-called “market measures”, which may include three main elements: - a system of trading quotas for emissions of harmful substances (ETS, Emission

Trading Scheme), or rather its extension to aviation. According to the rules of this system, it is planned to establish a certain maximum total amount of carbon dioxide emissions, within which each company will have a permit for a certain amount of emissions (it has not yet been decided whether these permits will only be sold, or whether companies will receive a certain minimum amount for free). Permits can be freely sold and purchased, including from companies from other industries. If the price of a permit is higher than the company's estimated costs of reducing emissions, this will encourage action to reduce emissions of harmful substances. Conversely, if the price of permits is lower than the cost of abatement, companies will be more likely to purchase permits. In our view, based on the current situation, the aviation sector will most likely be a net buyer of permits; a system of environmental taxes and fines (such as, for example, fuel tax, in-flight emissions tax and others). Such a system will directly influence the demand for transportation (additional taxes passed on to customers will lead to a reduction in traffic volumes and, accordingly, emissions), and will also encourage airlines to introduce a variety of technical and organizational measures to reduce emissions in the event that taxes will be quite high. In principle, it is expected that most of the funds from the environmental tax system will be channeled back into the industry from which they came, to take measures to reduce emissions of harmful substances, such as accelerated decommissioning of older aircraft models, funding technological innovations that help protect the environment;

Current trends in optimizing the air cargo transportation process in the world

For all Russian airlines, including the most successful ones, the most serious problem was the problem of moral and physical deterioration of aircraft equipment, for the renewal of which there was practically no money. Instead of a single monopolist carrier - the strictly regulated, state-owned and largest company in the world, Aeroflot - a huge number (more than 400) of independent carriers of various forms of ownership were formed. Most of these companies were so small, and therefore economically unpromising, that they did not even have sufficient funds to maintain the fleet of aircraft that they received virtually free of charge. Moreover, after the country's transition to free market conditions, airlines found themselves in unusual conditions of functioning as independent economic entities. Without government subsidies, clear regulation and in an environment of relative economic freedom and fierce competition, the sharp decline in demand for air travel has left many companies in an extremely difficult situation. Among the reasons for this difficult situation, one can note such as ineffective management, overstaffing, and, very importantly, outdated aircraft equipment, for extending its service life, and even more so, for the replacement of which the airlines did not have the funds. This aircraft is uncompetitive for a number of reasons: it has 1.5 - 2 times higher specific fuel consumption than foreign analogues, does not meet modern international standards for noise levels, atmospheric emissions, aircraft navigation accuracy and other parameters. For the above reasons, flights of the long-range Il-62 aircraft were practically banned in the USA, and Tu-154, Tu-134 in Europe. Access was actually denied Russian aircraft to the Indian market - this country has introduced strict requirements for the presence of expensive mid-air collision avoidance systems on board aircraft. Since April 2001, such systems have become mandatory for flights over Europe (the cost of re-equipping each aircraft is about 40 thousand dollars), as of April 2002, only 5 types of Russian aircraft can fly over Europe (Il-96, Tu-204, Tu-154M , Yak-42 and Il-62, and only those built after 1990), since the noise and emissions restrictions for airliners enshrined in Chapter 4 of the Chicago Convention began to apply. For all other aircraft Russian production the cost of refurbishment can reach 2.5 million dollars.

In addition to the commercial inefficiency and uncompetitiveness of aircraft, a more serious problem arose: in 1993, when the unified Aeroflot ceased to exist, the Russian aircraft fleet accounted for 26% of the world fleet. Since then, several hundred ships are decommissioned every year, and practically nothing is supplied to replace the “retired” equipment. According to the FAS, during 1998, 339 airplanes and helicopters of various types and purposes were written off, including 130 large aircraft (cargo and passenger). In return, the airlines received only 4 new generation aircraft (domestic), while the number of foreign aircraft in the civil aviation of the Russian Federation almost doubled and reached 54 units in 1998. This quantity was catastrophically insufficient to maintain an acceptable level of competitiveness - with a formal surplus of obsolete airplanes and helicopters, by 2000 the deficit in competitive carrying capacity amounted to almost 30%. Despite all its paradoxical nature, there is a right to exist in the assertion that the reduction in cargo transportation that took place met the interests of carrier companies that could not cope with the large volume of traffic.

At the same time, there is an opposite point of view, which says that the fleet of Russian aircraft in its capabilities still exceeds transportation needs many times over, since the sharp reduction in passenger and cargo traffic after the collapse of the USSR leaves a huge number of aircraft unclaimed. Despite the logic of such a statement, we cannot completely agree with it, since in addition to the physical production of a resource (aging), there is another aspect. Of those in state register There were 5,899 aircraft at the beginning of 2007. Only 2,680 were in airworthiness, i.e., less than half, and in fact about 1,500 aircraft were in operation. At the same time, the fuel efficiency of classic Soviet-generation aircraft, designed for operation in a fundamentally different economic situation, turned out to be extremely low in conditions of rapidly rising prices for fuels and lubricants. The industry average fuel consumption is 58 g/km, with foreign-made vessels being 39 g/km and new domestic ones being 51 g/km. It is very expensive to maintain the airworthiness of the outdated fleet of Tu-134, Tu-154, Il-86, etc.; a shortage of spare parts and a number of other technical difficulties raise the cost of operating new types, such as the Tu-204/214 and Il-96. It should also be taken into account that the operation of such a large number of types of aircraft, as in modern Russian conditions, when most large companies operate and maintain 8-9 types of aircraft, is a very expensive undertaking. It is advisable to unify the types as much as possible, especially since the idea of ​​the maximum possible unification of aircraft has long been considered as very sound. It is known that almost every aircraft, including cargo aircraft, is a unique structure, however, the main manufacturers of aircraft recognize that a certain unification of the aircraft produced (especially cargo aircraft) could significantly reduce their cost, and therefore tariffs. Thus, according to some estimates, the use of a huge number of parts and components from different suppliers leads to an increase in the cost of a civil aircraft by an average of 20%.

Therefore, airlines need aircraft, firstly, of a different passenger and cargo capacity, taking into account the needs of the market and its development trends; and secondly, they meet modern requirements for safety, noise and emissions levels, and fuel economy. All foreign airlines that intend to continue to be present and compete in the global global transportation market are conducting an unprecedented re-equipment of their fleet, purchasing new, modern, fuel-efficient aircraft. This makes the current situation fundamentally different from the past, when, in difficult economic conditions, airlines refrained from ordering new aircraft in anticipation of an improvement in their financial situation. In the current conditions, it is new aircraft with improved performance that are the main factor in reducing costs.

Ways to increase the competitiveness of Russian air carriers in the world market

Horizontal integration is also important. Strategic alliances of cargo airlines appeared on the world market somewhat later than in the passenger sector, although the need for “horizontal” integration in the air cargo market existed even earlier. In the current legal framework for air cargo transportation, it is not practical for a single airline to establish and operate a global route network. In addition, the creation of such a network would require huge financial costs. This is confirmed by the fact that today there is no traditional cargo airline that operates worldwide. Therefore, the expansion of horizontal ties, the establishment of partnerships in various forms is an essential and integral part of the strategy of a successful airline.

Clients are actually offered a single product - the conditions of transportation and the quality of services offered by alliance airlines are absolutely the same. It is the possibility of improving the quality of the service provided by all alliance member companies to the highest in the industry at the moment that, in our opinion, is a fundamentally new reason for the creation and prospects for the functioning of alliances in this area.

Due to the high cost of new vessels, about a fifth of orders for their production are placed by leasing companies, including those specializing in leasing under the ACMI system (aircraft, maintenance, crew and insurance), which includes leasing operations for cargo aircraft with a crew, maintenance and insurance, that is, the operator offers the airline a full package of services. Such leasing opens new opportunities for airlines: they can use the leased vessel when there is no certainty in demand, penetrating into new or trying to expand in old markets, and also offer their services in markets subject to seasonal demand fluctuations, all without large capital investments and additional costs, such as personnel or insurance. The analysis showed that such services are in demand in the market - they account for about 6% of cargo transportation in the world.

In Russia, over the course of several years, the air transportation sector underwent a transition from a planned system of economic relations to a market one, and this transition was carried out in extremely difficult conditions, against the backdrop of general economic deregulation, privatization, and price liberalization, which ultimately had a negative impact on the development of the air services sector.

Under these conditions, airlines began to gradually explore new markets. At the same time, it should be noted that there has been a change in the structure of air transportation, which was expressed, first of all, in an increase in the share of international transportation. For all Russian airlines, including the most successful ones, the most serious problem was the problem of moral and physical deterioration of aircraft equipment, for the renewal of which there was practically no money. This aircraft is uncompetitive for a number of reasons: it has 1.5 - 2 times higher specific fuel consumption than foreign analogues, does not meet modern international standards for noise levels, atmospheric emissions, aircraft navigation accuracy and other parameters.

As a result of the study, it was revealed that airlines need aircraft, firstly, with different passenger and cargo capacity, taking into account the needs of the market and its development trends; and secondly, they meet modern requirements for safety, noise and emissions levels, and fuel economy. All the world's leading airlines, which intend to continue to be present and compete in the global global transportation market, are conducting an unprecedented re-equipment of their fleet, purchasing new, modern, fuel-efficient aircraft. This makes the current situation fundamentally different from the past, when, in difficult economic conditions, airlines refrained from ordering new aircraft in anticipation of an improvement in their financial situation. In the current conditions, it is new aircraft with improved characteristics that are the main factor in reducing costs.

It seems that the main way for Russia to maintain competitiveness in the world market would be the abolition (possibly temporary) of import duties on those types of aircraft in the production of which at this stage the position of domestic manufacturers has been lost completely or partially, that is, long-haul and medium-haul wide-body aircraft.

Currently, in Russia there is a rather specific situation in the field of air cargo transportation, which is characterized by certain features. Let us note the persistent disproportion between domestic and international air transportation. Over the past 15 years, the ratio between them has reached 1:3 in favor of international ones. The development of domestic Russian freight transportation is a pressing but very complex issue. There should be a demand for such transportation, at least due to Russian geography, but over many years of decline in air transportation, shippers have reoriented their logistics schemes to land transport - rail, water and road. Therefore, air transport schemes need to be restored or created anew, which can take a lot of time.

A great impetus to the development of Russian cargo transportation and the economy as a whole could be given by harmonization with generally accepted international standards of customs rules, simplification of procedures and the development of modern technologies.

According to the author, for the successful integration of Russian cargo carriers into the world market, they, first of all, should take into account and make maximum use of the advantages that the specific geographical location of the country and the presence of a fleet of aircraft, which many companies received almost free of charge, can provide; as well as a competent approach to activity management, modern technological advances and the introduction of an international logistics approach to the provision of services.

The Russian air transport complex is a technologically, organizationally and economically complex structure designed to meet the needs of economic agents for high-quality services for the transportation of goods and passengers. The air transport complex includes airlines and air operators, a network of airports (airfields), an air traffic management system, as well as a system for training and retraining personnel for air transport (Figure 3).

Figure 2.1 - Scheme of the structure of the air transport complex

Currently, the Russian air transport complex includes more than 180 commercial airlines and 188 general aviation operators (GA) using about 6 thousand aircraft (AC), 350 airfields of various classes and about 650 landing sites. Aircraft maintenance is supported by more than 180 organizations, civil aviation flights are provided by 118 centers

Unified air traffic management system (EU ATM), covering over 500 thousand km of domestic air routes. Personnel training and scientific support for the air transport complex are carried out by 3 higher educational institutions, 12 secondary specialized educational institutions, over 100 training centers, 6 research organizations.

There are over 1,000 organizations operating in the industry, most of which are joint-stock companies.

Air transport accounts for more than 20% of the total passenger turnover in intercity transportation; the contribution of air transport in ensuring international transportation is even more significant: it transports over 80% of passengers in international traffic, or 97% of international passenger turnover.

According to the Federal Aviation Administration, in 2005, out of 1,900 available licenses for regular transportation across the Russian Federation, only 35% were used in the summer, and just over 23% in the winter. The result was an increase in the gap between the passenger turnover of the leaders and other enterprises in the industry, and the combined share of Aeroflot, Siberia, Krasair, Rossiya, Transaero and UTAir airlines in 2005 reached 60% in total passenger turnover and 73% in total revenue.

It should be noted that, largely thanks to the development of industry leaders, since 2001 the Russian air transportation market began to show the first signs of stabilization. Subsequent years were characterized by an increase in passenger turnover of air transport. The growth of the Russian economy and the increase in household incomes are not least reflected in the frequency of air travel. Modern business conditions and development tourism infrastructure increase the workload of companies on existing flights and contribute to the development of new routes. On average in the period 2000–2006. Russian airlines annually increased the volume of passenger transportation by 10%, with the annual growth of the country's economy by an average of 6.7%9.

In addition, the growth rate of the Russian air transportation market significantly outpaced the dynamics of the global market. In 2006, passenger turnover of Russian civil aviation increased by 9.6% and reached 93.9 billion pkm. During the year, airlines carried 38 million passengers, which is 8.3% more than in 2005.

The Russian market for air cargo transportation is developing at a more moderate pace. Over the year, airlines carried only 1.8% more cargo and mail. The low value of the growth of the freight market is largely due to the reduction in the transportation of goods on domestic routes (-1.8%), while on international routes in 2006 the increase in the indicator was 6%.

The growth in the passenger transportation segment was also mainly provided by an increase in work on international routes (+6.6% and 16.3% in terms of passenger traffic). The development of the domestic market was more moderate. However, despite this, the process of increasing competition continues in the domestic market. The growth rates of most of the leading airlines in the specified period were growing, significantly outstripping the average market rates. Thus, according to the results of 2006, the leading position in terms of growth rates is occupied by Transaero Airlines - 36%, UTair - 28%, S7 Airlines - 16.4%11.

The positions of leaders on domestic and international air routes have remained unchanged over the past years. The first two lines of the ranking in terms of passenger turnover are occupied by Aeroflot RA and Sibir Airlines. The positions of leaders change by segment. Aeroflot specializes in international routes, where it is far ahead of other Russian airlines in terms of volume of work. In our opinion, we can highlight the main trends in the development of Russian aviation in modern economic conditions.

Contributing to the growth of air travel: global economic growth; growth of income of the population; reduction of the average tariff (in basic prices); increase in the percentage of seat occupancy; increase in labor productivity; the emergence of new, increasingly cost-effective types of aircraft; increasing aircraft utilization; reduction of airlines' unit costs.

Slowing Air Travel Growth: Rising Puel Prices (According to IATA, if oil prices had remained at 2003 levels ($30), global aviation profits would have been $45.6 billion, more than the industry's losses over the last five years years; growth rates of related industries lagging behind the needs of airlines (orders to aircraft manufacturers Boeing and Airbus in 2005, according to experts, will reach 1,900 aircraft, and this number of orders will exceed the record level of 1989 by 25%).

Along with this, it should be taken into account that in addition to the influence of global trends on the development of Russian aviation, internal factors have a significant influence: the aging of the existing domestic aircraft fleet, its low fuel efficiency; crisis in the domestic aircraft industry, lack of supply of new aircraft; the high cost of Western-made aircraft, including high customs duties and VAT on their import; shortage of qualified flight and technical personnel for new Western aircraft, lack of training centers in Russia and the high cost of training abroad; low competition (or lack thereof) in the airport services market; administrative barriers in the international transportation market.

Further, we note that according to IATA research, in emerging markets, the growth in the number of passengers and cargo is approximately twice as high as the growth in GDP. According to world statistics, the frequency of air transport use, which characterizes demand, in stable conditions directly depends on the level of the country’s economy, which, in turn, can be assessed through the level of GDP per capita. In developed countries, with a GDP level of 15–30 thousand dollars per person, the frequency of air transport use is in the range of 0.8–1.6 flights per year per capita. In the USA, Norway and Switzerland, where per capita GDP exceeds $30 thousand, there are from 2 to 3.2 flights per year. In developing countries, depending on the level of GDP and the characteristics of the geographical location, the frequency of flights varies between 0.05–0.5 flights per year. At the same time, the Russian indicator for the country as a whole is close to 0.4, but regionally it ranges from 0 to 0.513.

In the long term, three main scenarios for the development of the Russian market can be considered, which are determined based on the forecast value of GDP and the growth rate of flight frequency.

In accordance with the first option, by 2020 the level of passenger traffic will reach the level recorded in 1990. At the same time, the annual growth rate of passenger turnover will be 6.5%. The second scenario assumes that the growth rate of passenger traffic will be twice the growth rate of Russian GDP. In this case, the annual increase in passenger traffic will be 8.8%, which will ensure an increase in the indicator by 2020 to 124 million passengers.

The third option provides for market growth by 11% annually. Here, the assumption is taken as a basis that the growth in the intensity of passenger traffic will increase to the European level (per 1 inhabitant). In this case, the passenger traffic of Russian carriers will be 168 million passengers.

If there is an increase in the volume of work of large airlines, then their growth will be facilitated not only by overall market growth, but also by a number of structural factors. In particular, the redistribution of passengers from smaller companies. It is obvious that the existence of a large number of airlines in Russia is a temporary phenomenon. Every year, the Russian aviation fleet is aging, and it is not possible for most airlines to modernize it due to low income. Thus, the reduction of air transport operators will continue. Some regional carriers that are of interest to larger airlines will sooner or later be absorbed, while others will simply be squeezed out by growing competition.

In addition, the development of the domestic market will be facilitated by increasing the availability of flights. Thus, starting from 2002, the dynamics of wage growth began to outpace the growth of tariffs, which has a positive effect on demand. Moreover, we note that the lower the tariff/average monthly salary ratio, the more the annual change in passenger turnover will differ from the change in GDP.

In our opinion, for greater clarity of the comparative analysis of the position of airlines on the market, you can select the largest enterprises in the Russian civil air transportation industry - Aeroflot-RAL, Transaero, Krasair, UTair, State Customs Committee Russia (including Pulkovo) and VIM-Avia. These airlines account for about 70% of all air traffic in Russian civil aviation and 35% of cargo traffic.

The listed airlines operate in the passenger air transportation market, but for some of them this is not the only type of activity. Aeroflot is the country's largest cargo carrier and receives compensation payments (“royalties”) from foreign airlines, UTair is the largest helicopter operator in the world, and some airlines receive income from the airport complexes that are part of them. Nevertheless, the main share of income of Russian airlines (about 70%) comes from passenger transportation, and, as data show, regular and charter international flights.

The process of increasing competition in the industry continues, but at the end of 2006, Aeroflot (the leader in international flights) was noticeably ahead of its closest competitors. Traditionally, the first place in passenger turnover for 2006 was taken by Aeroflot with an indicator of 24.324 billion pkm (+8.0%), followed by Transaero (7.792 billion pkm, +47.5%) and UTair (3.666 billion pkm, +23.1%). ) also showed positive growth results, but in absolute terms they were significantly behind the leaders. The remaining companies under consideration showed negative dynamics - the leader of the air union AirUnion Krasair (-0.3%), State Customs Committee Russia together with Pulkovo (-7%) and VIM-Avia (-20.3%)

The growth of Transaero's passenger turnover is largely due to the significant addition to its aircraft fleet. Transaero replenished its fleet with 6 Boeing 747-200 aircraft with 468 seats, which it placed to serve the busiest resort destinations. As a result, it managed to demonstrate the highest growth rates - almost 39% in passenger traffic for the year. At the same time, Transaero has significant potential to increase passenger turnover in the future. As for UTair, the airline's current fleet allows for the possibility of increasing operational efficiency.

It is obvious that by 2012 Russian aircraft will almost completely exhaust their service life, and in conditions when the Tu-154M will be taken out of service, there will be an acute shortage of mainline aircraft. Most Russian airlines have submitted requests to add aircraft of both foreign and Russian origin, but these intentions have not yet been translated into actual contracts. In our opinion, one of the main reasons is the problem of attracting external financing, and in this case, airlines are implementing various strategies, mainly using the placement of bills and bonds, less often lending. At the same time, the capabilities of the domestic aviation industry seem insufficient for the current needs of Russian airlines. As of January 1, 2006, there were 180 air carriers registered in the country, of which less than 20 provide 50% of passenger traffic.

Taking into account the trends of consolidation of industry players, especially in the context of modernization of the aircraft fleet, by 2008–2009. the number of Russian airlines may reach 30. Small companies specializing primarily in one direction will be forced to accept the conditions of larger airlines, but even in these conditions the needs of domestic carriers will not be fully satisfied.

It should be noted that with record high demand for aircraft in the global market, there is an acute shortage of availability of both new and well-maintained secondary aircraft until 2010–2014, and even airlines with sufficient financial resources have not begun negotiations with manufacturers and leasing companies will experience problems with fleet renewal due to the lack of a sufficient number of aircraft on the market.

The main competitive advantage of any airline in the long term is an effectively implemented growth strategy, an increase in the fleet of foreign aircraft and further development of the brand, successful business projects, mergers and alliances, and restructuring programs. In this case, accordingly, the factors of competitiveness may be the following:

An extensive route network, which contributes from an economic point of view to increasing the efficiency of the airline’s fleet operation, and from a service point of view.

Increasing passenger traffic by providing maximum flight opportunities (for example, you can fly from Perm to China through Novosibirsk, and not through Moscow, as was the case before).

Convenient connections, high level of service: the schedule of new flights that airlines must introduce should be selected taking into account optimal connections with other flights that operate from air transport hubs (for example, while waiting for a flight or connecting flight the passenger can spend time in the airline's ultra-modern business lounges at modern airports);

Diversification of sales markets through a unique system of hubs.

Creation of modern and comfortable airports with the most efficient transfer technologies, high transport accessibility and the highest growth rates in passenger traffic; the presence of new air carriers (including foreign ones), which creates additional “feeder” traffic.

Upgrading and replenishing the fleet with new Western-made equipment, which increases the level of service, flight safety and reduces the airline’s fuel costs;

A flexible tariff system, aimed at all groups of clients, competitive even in comparison with “low-cost” companies (creating opportunities to always provide our clients with the most favorable tariffs, without reducing the service on board).

The synergistic effect from cooperation with companies that include enterprises providing a full range of aviation work and services: aircraft repair enterprises, logistics, training, tourism.

Obtaining additional income from the expansion of non-sales activities and the development of service infrastructure at airport complexes.

Development of a sales system, including online sales, as well as optimization of the agent network.

A targeted cost optimization policy, including tools to reduce costs for fuel, airport services, distribution, administrative staff, and allowing to maintain and increase the profitability of operations in the face of rising prices and increasing competition.

Using the most modern software and constantly working to increase the transparency of internal processes at various levels: managerial, technical, control.

Involving leading global consultants to develop business plans (for example, Roland Berger, SH&E, Lufthansa Consulting, Ernst&Young).

Ensuring flight safety based on relevant audits, including audits by IATA, FSNST, Boeing and Airbus. At the end of last year, S7 Airlines passed the first stage of the audit in accordance with international safety requirements IOSA (IATA Operational Safety Audit).

Development of an airline brand that is bright and memorable in the exclusively formalized industry of Russian passenger transportation.