Vehicle accident statistics. Statistics and odds. The most dangerous transport according to Russians

Airplanes are dangerous to fly, we think. Trains are even more dangerous according to statistics. To what extent do our ideas about safety correspond to disaster statistics?

The period of vacations and holidays puts us before the inevitable choice of the type of transport on which we will go towards the alluring heat of Goa, the snowy landscapes of the Austrian Alps or on a labor landing to our mother in Tver.

The choice is not easy, and even more so when it comes to transport, because many interests collide, which include price, speed, convenience and safety.

And safety among them, as found out All-Russian Center public opinion surveys, the most important criterion. To what extent our ideas about safety correspond to the statistics of catastrophes.

Russians believe in train safety

In 2013, the Russians traditionally recognized the train as the safest mode of transport according to VTsIOM. Despite the fact that his credibility has fallen by more than 10% over the past three years and this moment is 46%. coupled with the electric train, for which another 41% of respondents voted, Russian Railways clearly enjoys confidence.

Aircraft also traditionally do not inspire confidence among our population. Only 16% of Russians believe in security air transportation, which is almost half that of last year. You can not take a car into account at all, it was not even included in the rating of safe modes of transport, since it is considered initially traumatic.

However, in the confrontation between modes of transport, not everything is so simple. For many years, statistics have been telling us that we are afraid to fly in vain, since the plane is the most safe view transport. So why don't we trust the smart science of statistics. It turns out that there are reasons for this.

NOT a safe plane

In fact, the statistics data largely depend on the calculation method. The plane is indeed the safest mode of transport, but only at the rate of tragedies per kilometer. It is the data of this method that are published on almost all transport sites and airline sites.

The trick is that, according to all the same statistics, the majority of air crashes occur at the time of takeoff and landing; aircraft die extremely rarely during the journey. Therefore, this method is so loved by air carriers.

By the way, in terms of tragedies per kilometer, the most dangerous way to travel is a motorcycle and attention! walking. Pedestrians are killed not much less than motorcyclists.

But there are other calculation methods, and here the plane does not look so pretty. The UK Department for Transport for Local Government and Regions (DTLR) has published data obtained from the calculation of passenger deaths for the number of trips and speed of movement.

And it turned out that the train still safer than an airplane and takes an honorable first place in the ranking of the fewest dead passengers. Interestingly, in both cases, the most dangerous mode of transport remains a motorcycle.

Far from the best performance of the aircraft and total number dead. In the study of the design center, an aircraft manager (PhD Plotnikov I.I. “Method of assessing the danger of modes of transport”) for 10 years, the number of victims of air crashes is second only to car accidents, taking an honorable 2nd place. And in terms of the number of deaths per 1 million passengers carried, it is completely in the lead.

Thus, of the five research methods in four, the train is still the safest mode of transport. So the intuitive assumptions of our compatriots in fact do not contradict the statistics at all, no matter what the airlines claim.

The safest planes

But we still have to fly, because there are places where trains do not go, and the speed of movement still plays an important role.

Contrary to the pessimistic expectations of Russians and the gloomy posts of the Internet, our country is not the leader in the number of air crashes either this year or in previous years.

According to the portal statista.com, the United States has been leading the tragic list for many years, and I must say, by a wide margin. Between 1945 and October 2013, there were 763 air accidents in the United States. In Russia, only 304.

According to the Air Accident Data Analysis Center (JACDEC), the most safe airline in the world in 2013 was the Finnish FINNAIR. In general, the list of the best looks like this:

1.Finnair (Finland)
2. Air New Zealand (New Zealand)
3. Cathay Pacific Airways (Hong Kong)
4. Emirates (UAE)
5. Etihad Airways(UAE)

6. Eva Air (Taiwan)
7. TAP (Portugal)
8. Hainan Airlines (China)
9. Virgin Australia (Australia)

10. british airways Great Britain
11. Lufthansa (Germany)
12.All Nippon Airways(Japan)

The list also includes two Russian airlines: Transaero in 16th place and Aeroflot in 39th place. We have more to strive for.

Why planes crash

In order to somehow reassure themselves before an air trip, many are interested in the depreciation of the fleet of a particular carrier. A trip on a young plane somehow calms in itself. However, it is absolutely not supported by statistics.

According to the blog "Flying Together", the picture of the depreciation of the Russian fleet for the period of October 2013 looks like this:

1. Aeroflot - 5.2 years
2. Taimyr (NordStar) - 9.2 years
3. Siberia - S7 (including the Globe) - 9.7 years
4. Russia - 10.3 years
5. Red Wings - 10.7 years

6. Muscovy - 11.1 years
7. Yakutia - 11.3 years
8. Ak Bars Aero - 11.3 years
9. Vladivostok Air - 11.9 years
10. Ural Airlines- 12.1 years

11. Donavia - 12.5 years
12. Tatarstan - 12.7 years (data including the plane crash in Kazan)
13. Severstal - 13.4 years
14. Orenburg Airlines - 13.8 years
15. Yamal - 13.8 years

16. North wind(Nord Wind) - 14.1 years
17. Kolavia (TUI) - 14.2 years
18. RusLine - 14.3 years
19. iFly - 14.9 years old
20. Transaero - 15.9 years

21. Flight - 16.6 years
22. Icarus - 17.1 years
23. Aurora - 17.7 years
24. UTair (including UTair-Express) - 19.7 years
25. Gazpromavia - 20.8 years

26. VIM-avia - 21.4 years
27. Nordavia - 21.9 years
28. Tulpar - 24.9 years
29. Grozny Avia - 25.9 years
30. Saratov Airlines- 26.3 years

31. Alrosa - 28.3 years
32. Izhavia - 29.4 years old
33. Angara - 29.4 years
34. Iraero - 31.3 years
35. Tomskavia - 37.8 years
36. Polar Airlines - 39.2 years

Forbes also confirms these data, marking Aeroflot as the company with the youngest fleet in Russia - less than 5 years old. I must say that Finnair, the leader in safe air transportation, has an average age of aircraft of about 9 years.

The Russian company Sibir (S7) has the same age of aircraft, but this company is known for its sad list of plane crashes.

This already suggests that planes rarely fall from old age. The statistics have no doubt about it. You can, of course, calm yourself down and get on a “younger” plane, but the chance that it will not crash is no greater than that of an “older” plane.

And all because planes crash most often due to pilot errors, that is, all because of the notorious human factor (where can you get away from it).

According to the agency AVIASAFETY.ru

- 68% of air crashes occur due to the fault of the human factor, of which 47% are pilot errors, 13% are the negligence of ground services and 8% are terrorist attacks.

- 18% - equipment failure. Moreover, both old and new equipment can fail.

- 14% - the reasons are not established.

Aerophobia

What to do when you still need to fly, but it's very scary? Psychologists give a lot of advice on this issue. Let's look at the most reasonable of them:

— If the fear of heights is behind the fear of flying, the fear of closed spaces, a tendency to panic attacks, the issue must be resolved not with aircraft, but with these disorders.

- But most often behind aerophobia hides a person's desire for complete control over the situation and the craving for a sense of absolute security. Needless to say, both are unattainable. Therefore, we must take it for granted that not everything in life depends on us, including the issue of life and death.

- As a given, we must also accept the fact that, with all our desire, we will not be able to influence whether the plane will fall or not. Therefore, it is not necessary to study aerobatics instructions or scrupulously study the details of all plane crashes. This will by no means relieve nervousness, but, on the contrary, will aggravate it.

- The cure for fear in the form of alcohol is also not the best option. The problem will not be solved, but new ones will easily be created.

The main thing to understand is that you need to deal with yourself, and not with the plane. From whether you tremble with fear or not, the possibility of a plane crash will not change, but you will spoil your nerves for sure.

The world's worst plane crash happened in 1977. Two Boeing 747s collided at Los Rodeos Airport in Tenerife. 574 people died. Due to errors by ground services and poor visibility, the two aircraft ended up on the same runway and moved towards each other until a tragic collision occurred.

- Another large-scale disaster also belongs to the Boeing 747. In August 1985, the airliner lost control and crashed into a mountain near Tokyo. 520 people died. The cause of the death of the aircraft was the destruction of the tail unit.

- In Russia, An-2 aircraft most often fall. But this is not due to the fact that the plane is bad, but to the fact that it is the most common in Russia.

— 2009 was the safest year for Russian airlines. Not a single person died on the regular planes.

— 2012 was the safest year for aviation in the world. In Russia, this year, unfortunately, was overshadowed by 4 air crashes.

- After the collapse of the USSR, Aeroflot had two plane crashes. In 1994 he suffered Airbus crash A310.

The pilot put his 15-year-old son at the helm. The teenager managed to turn off the autopilot, the plane went into a tailspin and crashed. 75 people died.

In 2008, a Boeing 737 crashed near Perm due to pilot errors, in whose blood alcohol was found. 87 people died.

— most mysterious plane crash considered the death of the liner with the poetic name "Speed Romance of the Sky" in November 1957 of Pan Am.

Just starting trip around the world, the plane crashed into Pacific Ocean. 44 people died. The reasons are still unknown. The plane did not send distress calls, and the toxicological examination of the bodies showed a high content of carbon monoxide.

Kenneth Roberts, an American, was the first survivor of a plane crash. A plane carrying American soldiers crashed on June 14, 1943 in Australia. Roberts survived, but forever forgot everything about the accident itself and lost the ability to speak.

Photo: depositphotos.com

We studied many official statistics websites and found out that there is no single answer to such a seemingly simple question, but nevertheless we compiled this rating, taking into account all the conclusions and all the principles of calculation.

Let's start with the fact that the complexity of risk calculation arises from the first minute of calculations, from the question of which indicator to calculate. If we take the total number of deaths from accidents for a particular mode of transport, then we get an obvious answer, because every year thousands of people die in car accidents in any country in the world, including pedestrians. Unlike a train or plane, where no more than 1,000 people worldwide die per year, incidents with this type of transport lead to a large number of victims, but they occur relatively rarely, no more than 2-3 every year. But if on planes and trains, most of us do not travel every day, then by car or bus, almost daily.

In principle, there are three possible ways to calculate transport risks, in terms of distance (deaths per billion km), number of trips (deaths per billion trips) or travel time.

Stakeholders generally choose the form in which the statistics are calculated according to their own purposes.

For example, in the air transport industry, the kilometer-based method is almost always chosen, which is optimal for them, since most fatalities occur during landings and takeoffs, and intermediate distances are long. For land transport on the contrary, they will tend to choose a method based on the calculation of victims per number of trips or hours of travel, since the risks are evenly distributed. Thus, both modes of transport are able to demonstrate that they are the safest mode of transport.

The statistics are based on data from the DETR Bureau of Statistics (Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions - US Bureau 2000). They record the number of deaths per billion kilometers, the number of trips and travel time.

Safety transport mileage calculation:

1. Air travel 0.05

2. Buses 0.4

3. Railway 0.6

3. Minibuses (Van) 1.2

4. Water transport 2,6

5. Cars 3.1

6. Bicycles 44.6

7. On foot 54.2

8. Motorcycle 108.9

It is clear that you can’t walk much, and there are a lot of accidents with pedestrians on the road.

Safety transport calculation of the number of trips:

1. Buses 4.3

2. Rail transport 20

3. Minibuses (Van) 20

4-5. By car and on foot 40

6. Water transport 90

7. Air travel 117

8. Bicycle 170

9. Motorcycle 1640

Transport for safety calculation from the time of movement:

1. Buses 11.1

2. Railway 30

3. Air transport 30.8

4. Water transport 50

5. Minibuses (Van) 60

6. Car 130

7. On foot 220

8. Bicycle 550

9. Motorcycle 4840

And as we already wrote in the article, about. Over the past 10 years, the number of serious air transport incidents has fallen by 36%. Mortality during air travel is 1 death per 1 million passengers. As a result, now the chances of dying in a car are 62 times higher than during an airplane flight, experts from the Ascend agency say. Which accordingly raises air transport in the ranking, in any of the calculations, both on the number of trips and on the time of movement. And in the calculation of the time of movement, it bypasses the railway transport.

Conclusions, there is no safe transport, due to big amount transport, crossing the streets is also quite dangerous, but whatever you think, you should refrain from such a type of transport as a motorcycle. Since the statistics are taken from the American Bureau, it is worth making corrections for our countries, our minibuses are just as unsafe as ordinary cars. And the airlines are quite reliable, ().

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Probably, many have heard that traveling by air is much safer than any land or water way. And this is true, so you should not be afraid of flights. However, it is important to remember the following: There is no completely safe mode of transport! Each category has its own data on emergency situations and, alas, passenger mortality. However, statistics over the years have argued that hundreds of times die in air crashes. less people than, for example, as a result of an accident. Even cyclists (again, according to statistics) have more accidents than airline passengers. Interestingly, about 80% of people are afraid to fly, completely refuse to fly because of their fear 5%, preferring "safer" ground and water sports transport. Let's see which is safer: a plane or a train?

According to data collected over the past 5 years, the aircraft is recognized as the safest mode of transport. Trains and boats are a little behind.

Let's think about why the plane is the safest mode of transport. There are an unimaginable number of aircraft in the world. In 2013, it was found that every 3 seconds somewhere on globe one airliner lands.

Let's imagine that with this many planes, the chance of being in a plane crash was only 0.01%, then every day there would be at least 13 crashes. The real probability of a passenger becoming a victim of a plane crash is 1 to 8,000,000. Even if you fly daily, it would take 21,000 years to die in a plane crash. By comparison, the chance of being seriously injured just by walking is significantly higher: 1 in 1,749.

Rail transport is not far behind air transport in terms of safety. Most people die as a result of road accidents.

Keep silent about the collapse of even a small passenger aircraft impossible, so with the help of radio, TV and the Internet, the world learns about the real number of incidents. Another thing is that any plane crash is an extremely large-scale incident, so the news about the crashes is shocking in terms of the number of victims, as well as the footage of eyewitnesses and film crews.

A train derailment is no less a major event than an airplane crash. It is noteworthy that rail transport ranks second in terms of safety, since in the event of an accident, the passenger at least partially has the opportunity to take part in his own rescue. However, for example, since the beginning of 2016, 6 large-scale accidents have already been recorded in the world, and in 2015 - at least 24. Unequivocally answer the question: “Why is an airplane safer than a train?” very difficult, at least in view of the fact that different countries, as well as for different periods, statistics can vary greatly. However, one thing is 100% certain: most people in the world crash in cars.

Survival in air crashes

Many believe that if a person is on board an aircraft, wrecked, his chances of survival tend to zero. However, the statistics are more optimistic. In the United States, curious calculations were made, which took into account the statistics of 568 disasters that occurred between 1983 and 2001. The dead turned out to be only 5% of the total number of passengers on board. The chances of survival are significantly increased (by as much as 50%) if the aircraft makes an emergency splashdown. Therefore, routes passing through water areas are theoretically the safest.

Comparative characteristics of transport modes in terms of safety.

Many passengers, when choosing a transport, are guided by their own preferences. Moreover, every second person is mistaken in the relative safety of this or that type of transport. A lot of people think about safety when choosing a vehicle. At the same time, there is an opinion that the train is the safest. In this article, we will dispel all the myths regarding the safety of movement.

The most unsafe and dangerous mode of transport in the world: statistics

Oddly enough, but the most dangerous mode of transport can be considered a motorcycle. In total, 42 people die per 100 ml miles. This is a huge number, since several thousand people turn out a year.

In second place are cars, minibuses and buses. You yourself often become witnesses of car accidents. 1.2 ml of people die in car accidents per year. Just think about these numbers.

The rating does not take into account unusual modes of transport. That is, no dog sledding and space ships. Otherwise, the safest could be considered a spaceship. But since so far no one makes intergalactic daily flights, the statistics speak in favor of the aircraft.

Many people think that the plane is the most unsafe kind transport and completely in vain. In the world, it is customary to calculate the danger of displacement as the number of victims per 100 million miles. As a result, it turns out that the death rate from the aircraft is only 0.6 people. In 2016, there were 21 air crashes, while the total number of deaths was about a thousand people. You will think that this is a lot. But in fact, more cyclists die every year in the world.

Despite the delusion of many, the first place among safe transport is the plane. Mortality is very low. Perhaps this is related to more speed movement than a train. Accordingly, it turns out that the plane flies these 160 ml kilometers much faster than the train. Therefore, the mortality statistics are lower. In principle, mortality directly depends on the speed of transport. On average, 0.9 people die per 100 ml miles when moving a train, and only 0.6 on an airplane. That is, the death rate in trains exceeds the death rate in airplanes by one and a half times.

Now many people have a lot of phobias about traveling in airplanes. This is due to the fact that almost every year there are colossal accidents that all the media talk about. But this does not mean that flying in airplanes is very dangerous. In fact, many people die from car accidents. more people. The most interesting thing is that most people believe that there are no survivors after a plane crash. Actually it is not. A third of all passengers die. While in a car accident half.

The statistics of insurance companies also speak in favor of aircraft. In case of a car accident, the payments are small, and in case of a plane crash, they are simply huge. Therefore, we can agree that no one would pay a lot of money if air crashes happened very often.

According to statistical estimates, which were based on the number of victims in air crashes, aviation turned out to be the safest mode of transport. The second and third place belongs to the water and railway transport, respectively.

The most interesting thing is that passengers, on the contrary, consider the plane the most dangerous mode of transport. This is due to the fact that the media publicizes any plane crash. At the same time, few people talk about train accidents. If you resort to statistics, with daily travel by plane, the probability of death is very low. With daily use of air transport, you can get into a plane crash in the 21st century.

There are certain statistics of the most reliable modes of transport. This is confirmed by insurance companies. Most of the money is given in the insurance of water and air transport.

Security stats:

Airplane
Train
Bus
Automobile
Shuttle taxi
Ship
Metro
Bike
Motorbike

According to statistics, you can safely use air transport, it is really the most reliable.

As you can see, people's opinions and statistics are completely different. Many people are afraid of the plane, although in fact this mode of transport is the safest.

VIDEO: A safe mode of transport

The safest mode of transport has not yet been found, so do not be naive to believe that you are in complete security while driving on it. When compiling statistics, the human factor and a series of ridiculous accidents are often not taken into account.

Of course, it will not be possible to name the safest modes of transport unequivocally, but statistics indicate that the safest mode of transport is the train, and the most dangerous is a motorcycle or moped. Only one percent of the world's population travels on motorcycles, but more than twenty percent of deaths will occur on this vehicle. Motorcyclists die twenty-eight times more than car drivers.

In second place among dangerous modes of transport is an ordinary bicycle. This vehicle is also dangerous because children and teenagers die on it.

Next come the subways and ferries, which kill a lot of people in one moment. The next two places are occupied by minibuses and cars, which a couple of years ago were considered the most dangerous species transport. The fact is that the design of machines has changed a lot, the level of safety has increased.

In third place is the bus, which accounts for 0.5% of deaths per billion kilometers. Of course, these data are consolidated, since bus accidents happen more often in Egypt than in Russia.

Is it possible to consider the statement that the plane is the safest mode of transport as true? Probably not in full due to a number of factors.

It is much safer to fly by plane, since only 0.5% of deaths per one and a half billion kilometers. This takes into account not only catastrophes civil aviation, but also small aircraft helicopters.

It is worth clarifying that almost always all passengers and crew members die. When purchasing tickets for a flight and boarding a plane, passengers do not often think about where it is best and safest to sit down.

Experts, of course, try to determine the most safe places in airplane. They do not include comfortable places located in front, although they are located quite far from the engines.

The most dangerous places are considered to be in the middle of the cabin of the liner, since they are located above the wing of the aircraft. This leads to sad consequences when the fuel ignites, and there will be quite a lot of victims.

Is it safe to fly on an airplane? Yes, if you find those very safe places in it. In order to minimize the damage aviation accident, you should choose seats at the emergency exit or at the tail of the aircraft. This is due to the fact that as a result of the panic that occurs during emergencies, passengers run to the emergency exit. Those who sit near him will not have to run through the entire salon.

At the end of the cabin, it is safe to sit because the impact of the nose on the ground during the fall will cause vibrations that will not reach the tail of the aircraft. By the way, most often during a disaster, the liner falls off exactly tail section enabling people to survive.

Thus, to the question of whether it is safe to fly on airplanes, one can answer that, subject to all safety standards, it is quite safe. However, if the liner explodes at an altitude of several tens of kilometers, there is no need to talk about the safety of passengers.

The most interesting thing is that all the people of the world are terribly afraid of flying, however, they easily get behind the wheel of a dangerous motorcycle.

The statistics of the safest mode of transport show that the bus ranks third dangerous place. It is worth noting that there are some differences between long-distance or intercity buses.

The buses that go far have soft and most comfortable seats. Bulky and heavy bags should not be kept with you, they are folded into luggage compartment, so they do not injure the passenger, falling on his head when emergency.

In order to avoid unpleasant consequences as a result of an accident, you should follow some simple rules. Even the safest seats on the bus will not be able to save a person during an emergency if they are not wearing their seat belts.

It is worth looking around in advance, choosing places closer to hatches or emergency exits. You should always keep documents, money and the most primitive first aid kit with you.

In order to feel safe, you do not need to occupy the front and rear seats. It is worth noting that in a head-on collision, passengers who occupy the first four rows will suffer the most.

The safest place on the bus is in the middle. However, you need to understand exactly where it is located. If the place is on the left at the window, then a blow from the side of the roadway is possible. It is worth sitting down closer to the aisle, which will save you from a fatal blow, which will be taken by the person sitting next to you.

The safest seats on the bus long distance located in the very center. They are next to emergency exit or the middle door, provided the vehicle is large. Of course, these places are unlikely to be saved when the bus is rammed by another vehicle, but in any other circumstances they will help save your own life.

By the way, in a frontal impact, the safest places will be from 13 to 18, and in a left impact - from the third to the seventh. In an emergency with a blow to the right, those who take 10th and 22nd places will definitely not die, and in a collision in the back of the bus - 1st, 2nd, 21st, 22nd places.

The question of which seats on the bus are the safest can be completely answered by statistics. In this case, you need to specify the type of bus and its range. In suburban options, the safest place is where a person sits with his back to the driver or another passenger.

Many people in the world continue to worry about the question of which mode of transport is the safest. It is worth clarifying that as a result of a huge number of surveys conducted around the world, it was found that the safest mode of transport is the train.

by the most safe trains are considered vehicles that move on the rails of most American and European states. Russian railways in terms of safety and reliability, they rank not last place, since the mortality rate on them is only 0.7% per one and a half billion kilometers.

What is the safest mode of transport Russians found out for themselves in the All-Russian survey, more than 70% of the citizens of our country consider the train the most reliable transport. There is no separation between commuter trains and trains that will take you to another city or even a country.

The safety of this type of transport lies in the fact that it follows strictly on rails. Dispatch services ensure that trains do not collide, which significantly reduces the possibility of an accident.

The safest seats in a train carriage are those located in the middle of the train. These cars, as a rule, are more stable and safer than tail or head counterparts. In a head-on collision, the passengers in the first carriages have very little chance of surviving, they will be the first to derail.

If you are traveling on a long-distance train, then you should choose the fifth or sixth compartment. At the same time, it is necessary to clarify that when traveling on the top shelf, you need to choose it in the direction of the train. Do not leave any objects on the table in the compartment, because there is a possibility of injury.

The safest mode of transport according to statistics in the world will be reliable if all conditions are met. This can only be done if it is possible to book a ticket with the right to choose a seat.

It is best to choose a compartment near the conductor, as it will be easier to get out of it. In case of a fire or other problems in the cars, do not pull the stop valve on the bridge or in the tunnel, as this will make it difficult for passengers to evacuate.

The safest seats in a subway car

The safest mode of transport in Russia is the train, which travels on the ground, but the metro is only in seventh place in terms of injury rates.

Before getting into the subway car, it is worth writing down or memorizing the phone behind the glass in the cab. It is necessary in order to contact the station attendants.

Most often, trains in the subway, according to the safety statistics of modes of transport, are under the threat of terrorist attacks. If an explosion has taken place, you should not leave the car, because there is a risk that the electrical wires in the tunnel are damaged.

It is necessary to choose places in the middle cars, because it is rather dangerous to be in the head section during an accident. Some experts specify that it is not bad to be in the tail car because of the possibility of quick evacuation from it.

The safest seats in a subway car are standing ones, since explosive devices are most often placed under the seats. It's nice to be in the crowd, while the surrounding people will become a kind of human shield during the explosion.

Speaking about the safety of passengers during terrorist attacks, it should be clarified that explosives are most often left in medium-sized cars filled to capacity. For example, during the terrorist attacks in the Moscow metro, cars number three and two suffered the most.

At terrorist act you need to lie on the floor and do not touch the metal parts in the car to avoid electric shock.

Transport safety statistics are compiled from surveys of the world's inhabitants in various surveys or questionnaires. It is worth remembering that this sad statistic is calculated as the number dead people on a certain section of the road.

Statistics do not always coincide with surveys of people, but you still need to believe stubborn statistics.